RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 95, 00-05-17

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 95, 17 May 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT WON'T PRESSURE INVESTIGATION

[02] YERKRAPAH FORMS PARLIAMENTARY GROUP

[03] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT'S PROMISE PROMPTS COMMUNISTS TO PUT OFF

[04] IVASHOV REPEATS MOSCOW'S OPPOSITION TO NATO PRESENCE IN

[05] COUNCIL OF EUROPE COMMITTEE BACKS ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI

[06] GEORGIA TO BECOME WTO MEMBER

[07] ABKHAZIA, NOT GEORGIA, SAID PRESSING FOR RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL

[08] GEORGIA CANCELS MILITARY PARADE FOR LACK OF FUNDS

[09] GEORGIAN STUDENTS RALLY FOR PRESS FREEDOM

[10] UN OFFICIAL ON DISPLACED PERSONS IN ABKHAZIA

[11] ABKHAZ LEADER DENIES MASKHADOV COMING TO SUKHUMI

[12] SOCAR CHIEF CRITICIZES GEORGIAN PIPELINE PROPOSAL

[13] COURT SUSPENDS 'MONITOR-WEEKLY'

[14] OPPOSITION PICKETS BAKU MAYOR'S OFFICE

[15] NEW POLITICAL PARTY FORMED IN KAZAKHSTAN

[16] KAZAKH PORT EARNS ITS WAY

[17] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT WANTS MORE REFORMS

[18] BISHKEK PROTEST CONTINUES

[19] SELF-DEFENSE UNITS SET UP IN SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN

[20] TAJIK PRESIDENT ENDS CONTRACT MILITARY SERVICE...

[21] ...SEEKS TIGHTER CIS INTEGRATION

[22] TURKMENISTAN TO CONDUCT SELECTIVE CENSUS

[23] ZINNI SAYS U.S. NOT HARMED BY UZBEK-RUSSIAN TIES

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[24] BELGRADE SHUTS DOWN OPPOSITION MEDIA

[25] OPPOSITION BLASTS TAKEOVER...

[26] ...CALLS FOR MASS PROTESTS

[27] WHAT IS MILOSEVIC'S GOAL?

[28] SERBIAN REGIME TARS OPPONENTS

[29] ANOTHER MILOSEVIC DIVERSIONARY TACTIC?

[30] SERBIAN UN EMPLOYEE KILLED IN KOSOVA

[31] CROATIA'S PLITVICE LAKES IN DANGER?

[32] RESULTS OF BOSNIAN ETHNIC CLEANSING BECOMING PERMANENT

[33] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES REGULATIONS ON 'SECURITATE

[34] CHURCHES IN ROMANIA SUPPORT EU INTEGRATION STRATEGY

[35] ROMANIAN INTERIOR MINISTRY SUSPENDS FOUR POLICEMEN

[36] LUCINSCHI, SMIRNOV DISCUSS TRANSDNIESTER STATUS

[37] AFGHAN WAR VETERANS CONTINUE PROTEST IN MOLDOVA

[38] MOST MOLDOVANS FAVOR JOINING EU

[39] BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT BEGINS DEBATE ON NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION

[C] END NOTE

[40] IDEL-URAL AND THE FUTURE OF RUSSIA

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT WON'T PRESSURE INVESTIGATION

Kocharian said on 16 May that no pressure is being exerted on

the officials investigating the 27 October 1999

assassinations in parliament and that he will not interfere

in the process, Noyan Tapan reported. He was responding to a

letter from families of the victims during a meeting with

them. PG

[02] YERKRAPAH FORMS PARLIAMENTARY GROUP

the Yerkrapah Union of Nagorno-Karabakh war veterans have

formed their own parliamentary bloc, RFE/RL's Armenian

Service reported on 16 May. This finalizes their split from

the Miasnutiun bloc. The 12 deputies in the new group, called

Hayastan, object to Miasnutiun's willingness to cooperate

with President Kocharian. Hayastan's chairman, Miasnik

Malkhasian, said that his union believes Kocharian should

step down and let the Armenian people choose a new leader. PG

[03] ARMENIAN PRESIDENT'S PROMISE PROMPTS COMMUNISTS TO PUT OFF

Kocharian's promise to explore joining the Russia-

Belarus union during his visit to Moscow in June prompted the

Armenian Communist Party to put off its plans for a 16 May

rally in support of the idea, RFE/RL's Armenian Service

reported. The Communist leaders went on state television the

previous day to say that they are postponing the

demonstration to give Kocharian time to live up to his

pledge. PG

[04] IVASHOV REPEATS MOSCOW'S OPPOSITION TO NATO PRESENCE IN

While in Yerevan on 16 May, Colonel-General Leonid

Ivashov, the chief of the international military cooperation

department of the Russian Defense Ministry, said that "Russia

will not condone NATO borders reaching the Psou River next to

the Russian city of Sochi," Noyan Tapan reported. He noted

that Russian bases in the region represent a significant

factor promoting stability across the region. PG

[05] COUNCIL OF EUROPE COMMITTEE BACKS ARMENIAN, AZERBAIJANI

The political committee of the Council of Europe

on 16 May voted to recommend the inclusion of Armenia and

Azerbaijan into the Council of Europe, RFE/RL's Armenian

Service reported. The two countries have had special guest

status in the council since 1996 because of the Nagorno-

Karabakh conflict. PG

[06] GEORGIA TO BECOME WTO MEMBER

announced on 16 May that Georgia will formally become a

member on 14 June, AP reported. Tbilisi was approved for WTO

membership in October 1999, but the Georgian parliament

failed to ratify membership documents prior to a January

deadline. Georgia will become the 137th member of that body.

PG

[07] ABKHAZIA, NOT GEORGIA, SAID PRESSING FOR RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL

TASS on 16 May that Tbilisi is not raising the question of

pulling Russian peacekeepers out of Georgia. It is the Abkhaz

who are doing so, he added. The same day, President Eduard

Shevardnadze nominated Kakabadze for minister at large with

responsibility for "supervising the settlement of conflicts"

in Georgia. Meanwhile, Caucasus Press reported rumors in

Tbilisi that former State Minister Vazha Lortkipanidze may be

named to replace Kakabadze in Moscow. PG

[08] GEORGIA CANCELS MILITARY PARADE FOR LACK OF FUNDS

Defense Ministry has decided that the military parade planned

for 26 May to mark the 3,000th anniversary of Georgian

statehood will not take place owing to a lack of funds,

Prime-News reported on 16 May. PG

[09] GEORGIAN STUDENTS RALLY FOR PRESS FREEDOM

Student Self-Government Organization staged a protest near

Tbilisi State University to demand that the government

refrain from putting pressure on Rustav-2 television and

especially its journalist, Akaki Gogichaishvili, who has been

critical of the cabinet. PG

[10] UN OFFICIAL ON DISPLACED PERSONS IN ABKHAZIA

Vladislav Ardzinba on 16 May received Francis Deng, the

special representative of the UN secretary-general, Caucasus

Press reported. Deng was in Abkhazia to study "the problems

of internally displaced persons," the news service said.

Ardzinba said that the Abkhaz authorities are not against

providing help to repatriated internally displaced persons.

PG

[11] ABKHAZ LEADER DENIES MASKHADOV COMING TO SUKHUMI

of Abkhaz leader Vladislav Ardzinba on 16 May described as

"not serious" reports by the leader of the Georgian White

Legion group that Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov and field

commander Shamil Basaev will be in Sukhumi soon, Prime-News

reported on 16 May. PG

[12] SOCAR CHIEF CRITICIZES GEORGIAN PIPELINE PROPOSAL

Aliev, the president of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan,

has criticized a Georgian proposal calling for the

construction of two additional pipelines that would tie in

Russian routes to the Baku-Ceyhan system, Kavkasia-Press and

Kontakt reported on 16 May. Aliev said that it is "absurd" to

make such a proposal given that the Supsa terminal "has

already reached full capacity." PG

[13] COURT SUSPENDS 'MONITOR-WEEKLY'

Court on 16 May suspended publication of "Monitor-Weekly" and

froze its assets, Turan news agency reported. The court took

this step because of a suit brought against the magazine, but

its editor, Elmar Husenov, said that he believes politics

were behind the court's action because the magazine has been

critical of the Azerbaijani government. PG

[14] OPPOSITION PICKETS BAKU MAYOR'S OFFICE

the opposition picketed the Baku Mayor's Office on 16 May in

an authorized demonstration, Turan reported. The

demonstrators are demanding that the authorities give them

permission to hold mass demonstrations in the future. Baku

Deputy Mayor Eldar Azizov met with the demonstrators and

promised a response. PG

[15] NEW POLITICAL PARTY FORMED IN KAZAKHSTAN

parliamentary deputy and a former presidential candidate,

told RFE/RL's Kazakh Service on 16 May that he is creating a

new political party. The new group, to be called the Party of

Kazakhstan Patriots, will be headquartered in Almaty. Qasymov

said that he is seeking support from leading political

figures and intellectuals across the country. PG

[16] KAZAKH PORT EARNS ITS WAY

port in 1999 totaled $4 million, a sum sufficient to cover

all payments due to the European Bank for Reconstruction and

Development, Interfax-Kazakhstan reported on 16 May. Aktau's

income nearly doubled over the previous year, according to

the news agency. PG

[17] KYRGYZ PRESIDENT WANTS MORE REFORMS

said on 16 May that Kyrgyzstan must either adopt further

reforms or risk sliding back, Interfax reported. He called

for the implementation of his long-term reform package as

well as for steps intended to reduce the country's dependence

on foreign aid. During the next decade, he said, Kyrgyzstan

must reduce the number of people living in poverty. (Kyrgyz

Finance Minister Sultan Mederov said that 50 percent of the

Kyrgyz population is poor and 23 percent extremely poor.) And

it can do so, he said, only if the private sector is expanded

and the state creates a stable political and economic

climate. PG

[18] BISHKEK PROTEST CONTINUES

participated in a protest demonstration to demand that the

government release opposition politician Feliks Kulov and

overturn the results of the last elections, RFE/RL's Kyrgyz

Service reported. PG

[19] SELF-DEFENSE UNITS SET UP IN SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN

regional Governor Mamat Aibalaev told Interfax on 16 May that

self-defense units are being formed in his region in order to

repulse any invasion by extremist forces this spring and

summer. He said that such attacks could come when the snows

melt in mountain passes. Meanwhile, First Deputy Defense

Minister Nurdin Chomoev told RFE/RL that the army is prepared

to repulse any attack. PG

[20] TAJIK PRESIDENT ENDS CONTRACT MILITARY SERVICE...

designed to do away with military units consisting of former

opposition soldiers, Imomali Rakhmonov on 16 May abolished

contract service in the army and security services as of 1

August, AP reported. He said that Tajikistan could not afford

such contracts. In another move, he prohibited Tajik soldiers

from carrying weapons when not in service. PG

[21] ...SEEKS TIGHTER CIS INTEGRATION

Executive Committee Chairman Yarov that Dushanbe favors

deepening integration within the framework of the

Commonwealth of Independent States. Rakhmonov's press

secretary, Zafar Saedov, told journalists that Rakhmonov was

among those behind the creation of the CIS anti-terrorist

center. PG

[22] TURKMENISTAN TO CONDUCT SELECTIVE CENSUS

of the commission for carrying out the 5 percent selective

census in December 2000 took place in Ashgabat last week, the

Turkmen State News Service reported on 16 May. Some 242,000

people will be questioned and registered in the process, the

service said. PG

[23] ZINNI SAYS U.S. NOT HARMED BY UZBEK-RUSSIAN TIES

Anthony Zinni, the head of the U.S. Central Command, said in

Tashkent on 16 May that Washington does not believe that

improving relations between Tashkent and Moscow represent any

threat to U.S. interests in Central Asia, Interfax reported.

Zinni was in the Uzbek capital for a conference on Central

Asian security. PG

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[24] BELGRADE SHUTS DOWN OPPOSITION MEDIA

17 May, Serbian police occupied the Belgrade offices of

opposition Studio B Television, Radio B-292, Radio Index, and

the mass-circulation daily "Blic." Dragan Kojadinovic, who is

a former director of the opposition television station run by

Vuk Draskovic's "Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO)," told

RFE/RL's South Slavic Service that the takeover is "state-

organized robbery, without any legal basis, without any

justification.... They took over all our premises, a few

hundred plainclothes policemen. [Our] security people at the

scene say they literally brought busloads of police, who

entered the building and broke into our offices.... Their aim

is to completely eliminate all programs of Studio B. They

neutralized Radio B-292,...they are not letting our

colleagues from 'Blic' enter their offices" in the same

complex. PM

[25] OPPOSITION BLASTS TAKEOVER...

association of private electronic media organizations, told

RFE/RL's South Slavic Service in Belgrade on 17 May: "This is

a complete prohibition of elementary freedom of speech in

Serbia. These media outlets were, after all, the heart of our

information sphere in Serbia today. The media landscape in

Serbia will be permanently fragmented and damaged in the

future if we don't start working again" and undo the damage.

Deputy Mayor of Belgrade Milan Bozic, who is also a member of

Studio B's board of directors, told AP that the "regime has

made a move with unforeseeable consequences. Whether this is

the beginning of the regime's suicide or just a

miscalculation, the next few days will show." Opposition

Alliance for Change leader Vladan Batic stressed that the

"government has imposed an informal state of emergency. This

indicates the introduction of a state of [martial law]." PM

[26] ...CALLS FOR MASS PROTESTS

spokesman for the SPO-led city government, said after an

emergency session of the city council: "We call on all

Belgrade residents to come to defend their radio and

television," AP reported. He added that the opposition will

announce details of the planned rallies and protests later in

the day after opposition leaders meet. PM

[27] WHAT IS MILOSEVIC'S GOAL?

Vojislav Seselj and Milovan Bojic signed a decree in which

they said that the authorities have shut down Studio B

because it allegedly "frequently called for the toppling of

the constitutional order and for rebellion against a legally

elected government," AP reported from Belgrade on 17 May. It

is unclear whether the decree also referred to the other

opposition media outlets located in the same office complex

as Studio B. Several unnamed opposition leaders told AP that

Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is preparing to declare

a state of emergency that will lead to a full-fledged

dictatorship. Opposition leader Zarko Korac said the latest

developments show "that the Serbian regime has opted for an

open dictatorship. It is up to the citizens of Serbia to

respond and say whether they want to live in such a society,"

he stressed. PM

[28] SERBIAN REGIME TARS OPPONENTS

publishing house, which is close to the regime, refused to

print "Blic," "Danas" reported. The Forum and Glas publishing

houses printed "Blic" instead. Democratic Alternative leader

Nebojsa Covic said that the regime is preparing to declare a

state of emergency by branding its opponents "fascists" and

"traitors" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 May 2000). Elsewhere,

leaders of Milosevic's Socialists and the United Yugoslav

Left, which is run by the Yugoslav president's wife, Mira

Markovic, officially called on state bodies to "take

measures" against "terrorist" opposition parties and the

Otpor (Resistance) student movement, RFE/RL's South Slavic

Service reported. In several cities and towns, police

detained some 40 opposition activists, including 20 in

Valjevo alone. PM

[29] ANOTHER MILOSEVIC DIVERSIONARY TACTIC?

Ministry said in a statement on 16 May that police have

arrested eight people who Belgrade says abducted indicted

Bosnian Serb war criminal Dragan Nikolic from Smederevo on 21

April and handed him over to NATO forces in Bosnia. The

ministry claims that the eight received $50,000 from NATO for

delivering Nikolic, whom the Hague-based tribunal has

indicted on more than 80 counts, including several for

murder, stemming from his time as commander of a Serbian

prison camp at Susica near Vlasenica in 1992. Politika

Television, which is run by Milosevic, said that the eight

"committed an unprecedented crime by handing over their

compatriot to the proven enemies of Serbia and its people,"

AP reported. NATO, for its part, says that its troops

arrested Nikolic in Bosnia. On several occasions in the past

year, the Milosevic regime has staged well-publicized

investigations or trials of alleged conspiratorial groups to

divert public attention from other problems of the regime's

own making. PM

[30] SERBIAN UN EMPLOYEE KILLED IN KOSOVA

recovered the body of 25-year-old Petar Topoljski, Reuters

reported from Prishtina on 16 May. Bernard Kouchner, who

heads the UN's civilian administration (UNMIK) in Kosova,

said: "This news is a terrible blow, not only to the family

and friends of Mr. Topoljski, but also to all the staff at

UNMIK. We have tried to create the conditions of security for

all our staff. But those intent on killing have found a way

to their goal," he added. Kouchner praised the Serbs on his

staff for their efforts "in spite of the threats and

isolation that they must endure here." PM

[31] CROATIA'S PLITVICE LAKES IN DANGER?

former director of the Plitvice Lakes national park, told

"Jutarnji list" of 17 May that mismanagement by the previous

Croatian administration under late President Franjo Tudjman

caused more damage to the park than did the Serbian rebel

forces during their occupation of the area from 1991 to 1995.

Vidakovic stressed that he has a plan to refurbish the famous

environment of lakes and waterfalls, along with

infrastructure. He added that his project will cost only $10-

12 million, in contrast to what he claims were the $20-25

million that the Tudjman administration squandered. PM

[32] RESULTS OF BOSNIAN ETHNIC CLEANSING BECOMING PERMANENT

federation have been selling or exchanging their former homes

in the Republika Srpska during the four years since the

Dayton agreement came into effect, "Dnevni avaz" reported on

17 May. Similarly, Serbs now living in the Republika Srpska

have been legally disposing of their properties on federal

territory. Several lawyers from Serb-held Zvornik have been

particularly active in persuading Muslim refugees abroad to

sell their former homes. If the process continues, the

results of ethnic cleansing will become permanent, the Muslim

daily added. The Dayton agreement stressed the right of all

refugees and displaced persons to return to their former

homes. PM

[33] ROMANIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES REGULATIONS ON 'SECURITATE

Lawmakers on 16 May approved regulations for the

National College for the Study of Securitate Archives,

Mediafax reported. The college is to coordinate the work of

the council that will supervise access to personal secret

police files and verify the accuracy of public officials'

statements about their links with the Securitate. Deputies

also decided that the college can be funded only by the

state. College President Gheorghe Onisoru complained that

this decision limits the council's independence and "condemns

it to poverty." ZsM

[34] CHURCHES IN ROMANIA SUPPORT EU INTEGRATION STRATEGY

signed a declaration in Snagov on 16 May supporting the

government's medium-term development strategy aimed at

accelerating the country's EU accession, Romanian media

reported. Church representatives confirmed their willingness

to participate in the European integration process. The

document was also signed by representatives of the Hungarian

Churches from Transylvania, which asked that provisions on

the return of Church property confiscated by the Communist

regime be included in the text. Premier Mugur Isarescu said

the strategy is a guideline of measures to be taken over the

next four years, irrespective of which parties form future

governments. ZsM

[35] ROMANIAN INTERIOR MINISTRY SUSPENDS FOUR POLICEMEN

Interior Ministry suspended four police officers who were

involved in a struggle with journalist Valentin Dragan that

left the latter with a broken leg, AP reported on 16 May. The

ministry is investigating the incident. PG

[36] LUCINSCHI, SMIRNOV DISCUSS TRANSDNIESTER STATUS

rejected an offer by Moldovan President Petru Lucinschi to

agree to a political settlement in which the Transdniester

would enjoy wide autonomy and its officials would gain senior

positions in Chisinau, Western news agencies reported. But

the Transdniester officials did permit Moldovan authorities

to visit Ilie Ilascu who has been in prison for opposing the

separatists. PG

[37] AFGHAN WAR VETERANS CONTINUE PROTEST IN MOLDOVA

Afghan war veterans on 16 May said that they will continue to

demonstrate outside the government building in Chisinau until

the cabinet meets their demands for early elections as a

means of helping the country recover from its economic

crisis, BASA-press reported. President Lucinschi said that he

will not "accept the language of ultimatums and violence" but

is prepared for a discussion of the problems of veterans. PG

[38] MOST MOLDOVANS FAVOR JOINING EU

reported by AP Flux on 16 May, 69.3 percent of Moldovans are

in favor of their country joining the EU. At the same time,

55.6 percent of respondents said that they have never felt

themselves to be Europeans. PG

[39] BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT BEGINS DEBATE ON NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION

against the government of Prime Minister Ivan Kostov, Reuters

reported. The Bulgarian Socialist Party called for the vote

citing growing corruption among government officials, but

other politicians suggested that the corruption charges are

only a cover for complaints about the impact of

privatization. Like two earlier motions, this one is not

expected to pass since the coalition of Union of Democratic

Forces and People's Union control 139 out of the 240 seats in

the legislature. PG

[C] END NOTE

[40] IDEL-URAL AND THE FUTURE OF RUSSIA

Turkic and Finno-Ugric activists in the area

between the Volga and the Urals are reviving an idea

that threatens to undermine Moscow's ongoing efforts to

re-establish control over Russia's far-flung regions.

They seek to create Idel-Ural, the historical name for a

confederation of the peoples of Tatarstan,

Bashkortostan, Chuvashiya, Mordovia, Marii El, and

Udmurtiya, and thereby establish an economically and

politically powerful entity between European Russia and

Siberia.

The peoples of this area have already tried to

establish such a confederation. Indeed, their efforts

are noted in the U.S. Captive Nations Week resolution.

But precisely because such an entity would be so

threatening to Russia's territorial integrity, Moscow

repeatedly has taken steps to block any such move and

likely will do so once again.

The latest effort was launched at a conference of

non-governmental activists on 24 April in Ioshkar-Ola,

the capital of Marii El. There, these groups unanimously

backed the proposals of the moderate nationalist Tatar

Public Center to set up an Idel-Ural Fund to promote the

idea via its own newspaper and to hold two more

conferences later this year. Participants in the meeting

told RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service that they took this

decision now because they and the people they represent

are concerned by the intensification of Russian

government surveillance over organizations, like theirs,

representing ethnic minorities inside the Russian

Federation.

They are also undoubtedly worried by what even

Russian scholars now refer to as the growing

Islamophobia among Russians during the fighting in

Chechnya. According to polls, the number of Russians who

view Islam as a "bad thing" has grown from 17 percent in

1992 to 80 percent now.

In support of such concerns, the U.S. Commission on

International Religious Freedom said earlier this month

that Russia is manipulating intolerance against Muslims

to fuel public support for its war effort against

Chechnya.

So far, the activists, who met in Ioshkar-Ola at

the end of April, do not enjoy even the public support

of the governments in the regions from which they come.

Most of these regimes have been far more cautious in

their expression of concern about Moscow's approach and

have sought to make the best deals they can with

President Vladimir Putin.

But the Ioshkar-Ola meeting and especially its

decision to resuscitate the emotionally powerful term

"Idel-Ural" nonetheless contain messages to three key

audiences. First, its call for the establishment of

Idel-Ural serves notice to the governments in this

region that their populations may be far more radical

than are local officials. On the one hand, the decision

at the Ioshkar-Ola meeting may radicalize these regimes,

leading them to take a tougher stand against Moscow in

the expectation that such a move will win them support.

On the other, it may cause them to become more dependent

on Moscow, thereby reducing their authority and making

authoritarianism and instability more likely in the

future.

Second, the Ioshkar-Ola meeting calls into question

the assumptions of those in the Russian government who

believe they can either attack Islamic groups with

impunity or co-opt the majority of them. The Russian

government has used anti-Islamic rhetoric during its

Chechen campaign that has offended even those Muslims

within the Russian Federation who agreed with Moscow's

overall approach in Chechnya.

But more important, the decisions at Ioshkar-Ola

suggest that Moscow will not be able to co-opt the so-

called "moderate Russian Muslims," as Putin and his

aides have suggested. The Tatars, who have been

celebrated for their "moderation" in dealings with

Moscow, are clearly sending a message that Moscow's

current approach may leave them no longer moderate.

And third, the Ioshkar-Ola decisions also call into

question the assumptions of many Western governments

that Putin's presidency is likely to lead to more

stability, even at the cost of increasing

authoritarianism. In fact, moves by Putin thus far may

generate their own nemesis, just as Soviet leader

Mikhail Gorbachev's moves to recoup Moscow's power in

1990-1991 led even those who had never thought about

secession to decide to move in that direction.

The Ioshkar-Ola meeting is likely to mark yet

another turning point in the development of the post-

Soviet space, one that could trigger precisely the kind

of instability that leaders there and elsewhere say they

want to avoid.

17-05-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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