Cyprus PIO: Turkish Press and Other Media, 02-10-09

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From: The Republic of Cyprus Press and Information Office Server at <http://www.pio.gov.cy/>

[A] NEWS ITEMS

[01] The Turkish Cypriot leader is recovering fast.

[02] Agreement reached between Turkey and Israel for the modernization of M-60 tanks.

[03] Opinion Poll reveals that the fall of the Nationalist Action Party is due to the Justice and Development Party.

[04] Turkish Under Secretary of Foreign Affairs informed non-EU European countries about the Cyprus problem.

[05] Top Court rejects NAP/s petition to cancel reforms.

[06] Cengiz Candar stresses that Turkey has to take a more flexible position on the Cyprus problem.

[07] Trade Unions in the pseudostate are not pleased with the minimum wage increases.

[B] COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

[08] Everyone who crosses from the pseudostate to the free areas of Cyprus must take the permissioh of the Turkish Army.

[A] NEWS ITEMS

[01] The Turkish Cypriot leader is recovering fast

After the surgery Mr Denktas naturally had some pain. The doctors tried to alleviate the pain with drugs. He spent last night partly sleeping and partly awake. His oxygen supply was cut off last night. The battery supporting his heart was removed this morning and the equipment regulating his blood pressure was disconnected. He is returning to normal very fast. We talked to him this morning. We asked him if he had any pain. He has normal pain but nothing unbearable. He got up from bed and sat in an armchair for a while, so that he can return to normal as soon as possible. He chatted with us. We are visiting him intermittently. He is still in intensive care. He will be released from intensive care this evening or tomorrow morning at the latest. The doctors are saying that he is recovering fast. Dr. Dervis Oral stayed with him all night. Dr. Oz who performed the surgery stayed with him until midnight. He also said that there is nothing abnormal in his situation. In other words, it is going very well. Mr Denktas is expected to leave the hospital this weekend, either on Friday or Saturday. He will stay in a hotel for a week, after which he will return to Cyprus.

[02] Agreement reached between Turkey and Israel for the modernization of M-60 tanks

The agreement for the upgrading of the M-60 tanks, to be undertaken by the Israeli company IMI for a price of $655 million, was reached after prolonged negotiations on the fee and the percentage of offset work to be allocated to Turkish firms.

Under the agreement the first sample of the modernised M-60 tank will be completed in Israel, with the rest of the work being handled in Kayseri in central Turkey. The domestic contribution was left at ten percent since the Israeli firm would agree to a higher level. However, the agreement on cost, which initially covers the modernisation of 170 M-60 tanks, could be extended to a total of 600 tanks.

[03] Opinion Poll reveals that the fall of the Naitonalist Action Party is due to the Justice and Development Party

The unattributed report is as follows: The public opinion poll of the Social Research Center (SRC) shows that 36.3 percent of the electors who voted for the NAP [Nationalist Action Party] in the 1999 elections will give their votes to the JDP [Justice and Development Party] on 3 November [2002]. In the SRC election poll broadcast on the CNN Turk on Saturday night [5 October], the voting behavior of the electors was examined and it was attempted to guess their tendencies for the 3 November elections.

The SRC Chairman Cenap Nuhrat, who said that they work with the representative and random sampling method throughout Turkey, stated that the percentage error in the poll results is plus or minus 2 percent. Nuhrat said, "Basically, the poll was made to enable us to understand in greater detail the question of who are the electors. Consequently, we tried to understand how the party grassroots, profiles, identities and tendencies are formed".

The following findings were obtained in the public opinion poll organized among two thousand four hundred people between 28 September-1 October [2002], by taking into consideration their distribution according to rural and urban sectors:

The JDP Is the Preference of a Different Base

If there would be an election today, the votes given to the DLP [Democratic Left Party], NAP and MP [Motherland Party], the coalition government partners, in April 1999, will go to a great extent to the JDP, Youth Party [YP] and the RPP [Republican People's Party]. While the VP [Virtue Party] votes are shifting in the form of a block to the JDP, the PDP [People's Democracy Party] is preserving its electors. While it was stated that of 100 persons who voted for the DLP in 1999 only 4 would vote once again for the DLP, 31.7 percent of them prefer the RPP, 16.1 percent the YP and 15.8 percent the JDP. Of those who voted for the MP, one out of every five persons will once again vote for the MP, 28.5 percent for the JDP, 14 percent for the YP and 8.5 percent for the RPP.

While 71.6 percent of the RPP electors will make the same preference again, 5.8 percent shifted to the YP and 5.1 percent to the JDP. Of those who voted for the TPP [True Path Party], 42.1 percent will still vote for the TPP, 25.2 percent will vote for the JDP, 14 percent for YP and 4.5 percent will vote for the RPP. Of those who voted for the VP, 81.8 percent have oriented towards the JDP. Only 8 percent of those who voted for the VP previously are selecting the FP [Felicity Party].

Of those who voted for the PDP in the last elections, 92.9 percent will still vote for this party and the votes shifting to the RPP and JDP are 2.4 percent. While 32.3 percent of the NAP electors will still vote for this party, 36.3 percent of the votes are shifting to the JDP and 9.8 percent of the votes are shifting to the YP. Of those voted in the last elections for other parties, 33.7 percent have oriented to the JDP, 17.8 percent to the GUP [Great Unity Party], and 8 percent to the RPP. Of those who did not vote or cast invalid votes, 28.2 percent chose the JDP, 11.5 percent the RPP and 11.1 percent chose the YP.

The Preference of the New Electors

It was observed that almost half of the votes of the 4 million new electors, who have just reached 18 years of age, have oriented towards the JDP and the YP. The preferences of the "new electors", who will vote for the first time, is 28 percent for the JDP, 19 percent for the YP and 15.5 percent for the RPP. While the party with the highest university graduate electors is 13.2 percent with the RPP, the RPP was followed by the NAP with 7.5 percent, the JDP with 6.5 percent, the TPP with 5.9 percent, the MP with 5.7 percent, the RPP [Revolutionary People's Party] with 4.6 percent and the YP with 1.9 percent. The party with the greatest number of primary school electors is the TPP with 63.2 percent.

This party is followed by the YP with 60.2 percent, the MP with 56.3 percent, the JDP with 51.7 percent, the RPP (Revolutionary People/s Party) with 44.4 percent, the NAP with 41 percent and the RPP with 37.5 percent. While the RPP (Revolutionary Peole/s Party) is in the first place with 22 percent of the middle school graduates, the MP is in the last place with 4.6 percent of the middle school graduates. For the high school graduates, the NAP with 28.9 percent and the RPP with 28.5 percent were in the first places and the RPP (Revolutionary People/s Party)was in the last place with 9.3 percent.

The RPP (Revolutionary People/s Party) is Ahead in the Rural Areas, the TPP Is Ahead in the Towns

In the distribution accoridng to settlement places, the RPP (Revolutionary People/s Party) took the first place in the rural areas, the TPP in the towns and the RPP in the metropolitan cities. While the rural base of the Revolutionary People/s Party (RPP) is 47.2 percent, the YP is 42.3 percent, the NAP is 41.9 percent, the JDP is 38.6 percent, the MP is 37.9 percent, the TPP is 37.7 percent and the RPP is 35.3 percent.

While the urban area base of the TPP is 52.9 percent, it was 46.2 percent for the Revolutionary People/s Party, 39.4 percent for the JDP, 37.9 percent for the MP, 33.7 percent for the RPP and NAP and 32.6 percent for the YP. While the metropolitan city base of the RPP is 31.1 percent, it is 25.1 percent for the YP, 24.4 percent for the NAP, 24.1 percent for the MP, 22.1 percent for the JDP, 9.3 percent for the TPP and 6.5 percent for the RPP (Revolutionary People/s Party).

Demography of the Electors

Male electors, with 51.2 percent are 2.4 percent more than the female electors are. While the electors between the ages of 25-34 are the group in first place with 29.8 percent, this age group is followed by the 35-44 age group with 25.4 percent, the 45-60 age group with 22.5 percent, the 18-24 age group with 17.4 percent and the 60 years of age and older group with 4.9 percent. Almost half of the electors are composed of primary school graduates. The percentage of primary school graduates is 48.5 percent, high school graduates 21 percent, middle school graduates 11.6 percent, university graduates 8.1 percent, illiterates 4.4 percent, literates 3.8 percent and university, master or Ph.D. students are 2.3 percent.

Electors having a monthly income of between TL 176-300 million [around $107-183] are in first place with 34 percent, those having a monthly income under the minimum wage are 23.4 percent. The percentage of those having a monthly income of TL 301-500 million [around $184-305] is 25.2 percent, those having a monthly income of TL 501-750 million [around $305-457] is 9 percent, those having a monthly income of TL 751 million - TL 1 billion [around $457-610] is 4.1 percent, those having a monthly income of TL 1-1.5 billion [around $610-915] is 2.6 percent and those having a monthly income of TL 1.5 billion and more is 1.2 percent.

Those Who Are Undecided Are 33.6 Percent

While the ratio of those having a party preference is 66.4 percent at the moment, the ratio of those who have not yet decided on a party is 33.6 percent. While 90 percent of the electors say that they will vote for the "party they like" whether or not it exceeds the election threshold, 9.4 percent think to use their votes by estimating the results of the election. 63.4 percent of the electors do not know the Member of Parliament [MP] candidates in their regions.

Those who are undecided are sure for whom they will not vote. In the lead of the parties that the undecided do not want to see in the Parliament is the Revolutionary People/s Party with 53.5 percent. This party is followed by the DLP with 38.9 percent, the FP with 28 percent, the FSP [Freedom and Solidarity Party] with 27.2 percent, the MP with 25.9 percent, the NAP with 16.6 percent, the YP with 15.4 percent, the JDP with 14.6 percent, the TPP with 14.4 percent, the NTP [New Turkey Party] with 12.3 percent and the RPP with 10.2 percent.

The First Preference Is Trust in the Leader

The most influential factor in choosing a party is "trust in the leader" with 87.4 percent. The other reasons are "belief that it can solve the economic problems" with 85.1 percent, "to be in favor of freedom of religion and conscience" with 80.4 percent, "to be in favor of freedoms" with 80.2 percent, "to defend secularism" with 74.5 percent, "to defend the EU" with 61.1 percent, "to like the candidates" with 59.2 percent, "to be new" with 52.8 percent and "to be against the death penalty" with 43.9 percent.

"No" To a JDP-RPP Partnership

While 64.1 percent of the electors gave a response of "it would not be appropriate, I will not support it" for the JDP-RPP coalition among the coalition models, which could emerge after the 3 November elections, those who would support such a coalition is 20.7 percent and those with no opinion is 15.3 percent.

Reaction To Political Bans

A great majority of those who participated in the opinion poll do not approve of the political bans imposed on the JDP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Necmettin Erbakan. 57 percent says that the decision was wrong and 33 percent says that it was correct. 6.3 percent says, "I was not aware of it, but the decision is wrong" and 2.7 percent says, "I was not aware of it, but the decision is correct". 1.1 percent had no opinion on this subject.

52.1 percent of those who find the ban decision to be correct, thinks that this is a court judgment and cannot be debated and 47.1 percent thinks that "Erdogan and Erbakan are a threat for democracy". 10.6 percent of those who consider the ban decision to be wrong say that they have been affected by this decision. 5.9 percent says, "I was not thinking to vote for the JDP before, but now I am". 4.7 percent says, "I was thinking to vote for the JDP before, but now I am not".

The Elections Are Mostly Followed on TV

Almost all of the electors say that they are following the election agenda and debates on television. While those who say, "I follow it on television" is 96.1 percent, those who say newspapers is 47.1 percent, those who say radio is 16 percent, local television is 9.5 percent, media, friends, family members is 3.9 percent, meetings, gatherings is 3.6 percent, "only through friends and family members" is 3.6 percent, magazines is 3.3 percent and those who say through the Internet is 0.5 percent.

The Influence of the Polls is 2 Percent

39.9 percent of those who participated in the opinion polls say that they have not been aware of the public opinion polls made prior to the elections and their results. 33.4 percent say that they were aware of the opinion polls and trusted the results, but that they would not influence the decision they would make and 24.7 percent say that they had heard about the polls, but did not trust them. The percentage of electors who say, "I have heard about the opinion polls, I know their results and these results will influence the decision I will make" was 2 percent.

The Electors Are First of All Secular

Of those who are asked to position themselves on an axis, those who say that they are "secular" is in first place at 8.25 percent, followed by those who say that they are "nationalistic" at 7.78 percent, "EU opponent/proponent" at 6.89 percent, "right/left" at 5.92 percent, "modern/conservative" at 5.8 percent and for or against the death penalty at 5.03 percent.

In the ratios of party bases positioning themselves on a "right/left" axis, the NAP base is in the first place with 8.01 percent. This party is followed by the TPP with 7.59 percent, the JDP with 7.43 percent, the MP with 6.9 percent, the YP with 5.59 percent, the RPP with 2.89 percent and the RPP (Revolutionary People/s Party) with 2.42 percent. In the ratios of the party bases, which support the EU the most, the RPP is in first place. While the percentage is 7.97 percent in the RPP, this rate is 7.47 percent in the MP, 7.21 percent in the RPP (Revoluitonary People/s Party), 7.17 percent in the TPP, 7.02 percent in the YP, 6.41 percent in the JDP and 5.75 percent in the NAP.

The Most Nationalistic Is the NAP

The NAP takes the first place with 9.18 percent with the nationalistic structure in its party base. It is followed by the TPP with 8.45 percent, the JDP with 8.01 percent, the YP with 7.79 percent, the MP with 7.63 percent, the RPP with 6.91 percent and the Revoltionary People/s Party (RPP) with 5.41 percent.

The RPP base has the most "secular" base among the parties with 9.06 percent. This party is followed by the MP with 8.67 percent, the YP with 8.64 percent, the NAP with 8.58 percent, the TPP with 8.55 percent, the Revolutionary People/s Party (RPP) with 7.88 percent and the JDP with 7.47 percent. The party base, which wants the death penalty the most, is the NAP while the RPP wants it the least. While the NAP base is in favour of the death penalty with 6.36 percent, this party is followed by the JDP with 5.79 percent, the YP with 5.41 percent, the TPP with 5.17 percent, the MP with 4.57 percent, the RPP with 3.35 percent and the Revolutionary People/s Party with 2.93 percent. In conservatism, once again the NAP took the first place and the Revolutionary People/s Party base took the last place. While the NAP base had a ratio of 7.13 percent in conservatism, the parties coming after it are respectively the JDP with 6.68 percent, the TPP with 6.40 percent, the YP with 5.74 percent, the MP with 5.43 percent, the RPP with 4.10 percent and the RPP (Revolutionary People/s Party) with 3.87 percent.

64.1 percent of all the electors and 74.2 percent of the JDP electors say that the "JDP should announce its candidate for prime minister now".

[04] Turkish Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs informed non-EU European countries about the Cyprus problem

According to the paper, Mr Ilkin presented in the briefing the suggestions and the reports prepared by the Turkish side until today regarding the Cyprus problem. He has also informed the embassies on the latest developments in the procedure of the Cyprus talks.

[05] Top Court rejects NAP's petition to cancel reforms

The top court decided to reject NAP's demand to reserve the abolishment of capital punishment and education and broadcasting in Kurdish, as well as minority foundations' rights, with a unanimous vote.

NAP has been opposing the lifting of the death sentence as it earlier pledged its grassroots to hang Abdullah Ocalan, the chieftain of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

Ocalan was captured and sentenced to death on charges of treason in 1999. Turkey blames him for 30,000 deaths in a 16-year Kurdish separatist campaign in the southeast.

The Ankara State Security Court commuted Ocalan's death sentence to life imprisonment last Thursday in line with Turkey's abolition of the death sentence in August to meet EU human rights criteria. He is in jail on Imrali island near Istanbul.

Meanwhile, a European human rights body said on Tuesday that Turkey should end the solitary confinement of Ocalan.

The European Committee for the Prevention of Torture (CPT) -- an arm of the Council of Europe which could lend crucial support to Turkish aspirations to join the European Union - insisted that Ocalan should have access to rights accorded to other prisoners.

"He should have the possibility of being placed as soon as possible in surroundings permitting contact with other prisoners and with a wider range of activities," a CPT spokesman told a media briefing in Strasbourg. The spokesman said the CPT believed Ocalan should have access to a television and telephone like other prisoners. If Ankara refused to transfer him to another prison, it should instead transfer other prisoners to accompany him on Imrali.

According to a draft of a European Commission report seen by Reuters, the EU executive insists Turkey must lift restrictions on the media, religion and peaceful assembly before it can begin accession talks with the EU.

The CPT, which conducted a visit to the Imrali prison in September 2001, has a mandate to assess potential human rights abuses and degrading treatment of prisoners.

Its opinions, like those of the Council of Europe with its wider brief to monitor human rights, are taken into account by the EU in its assessment of countries.

[06] Cengiz Candar stresses that Turkey has to take a more flexible position on the Cyprus problem

On the eve of elections we posed quesitons on these standing issues to the specialist and Yeni Safak's prominent columnist Cengiz Candar. Candar responded to our questions on the problems awaiting the new government which will be established after the November 3 elections.

Candar says the most urgent problem awaiting the new government after the elections is Cyprus adding: "Whatever we say on the Cyprus problem and Turkey's EU relations, EU officials are establishing a contact between Cyprus and Turkey's EU membership."

According to Candar the most important issue the new government will face after the November 3 elections is the Cyprus problem. "As you know the EU will decide on EU enlargement in the Copenhagen summit. Then they will decide on both Cyprus's membership and Turkey's membership. This decision will affect Turkish-EU relations and also the enlargement process directly."

"The most urgent one is the Cyprus problem and in connection with Turkish-EU relations," said Candar and added: "It seems that the EU has not reached a decision on the enlargement process for the Copenhagen Summit up to now."

Pointing out the importance of a concrete will of the government regarding the Cyprus issue Candar said: "A concrete will should be shown by the government on the Cyprus issue," and added: "Turkey has to take a flexible position. This is a problem which belongs to last century and we cannot solve the problem with the parameters of the last century. We have to approach this problem with new parameters for a solution."

Candar continued sharing his views on the international intervention on the Cyprus issue with us, "There is an activity for the solution of the problem but I think the United Nations, even the U.S., should intervene and contribute to the solution of the problem. These interventions will contribute to the solution on the island. But also a flexible approach for Turkey is needed."

Responding to our question, "Do you think a new government can bring a new approach on the issue?", Candar said: "Yes it has to, otherwise there will be no solution on the island. I am emphasizing again that we have to change our approach and take a flexible position."

Candar also shared his views with TDN on Turkey's EU process and said: "We don't want to relate Turkey's membership and the Cyprus issue but the EU seems to have established a direct link between these two issues. The implementation of the harmonization acts are also important, this will directly affect the membership process. But a concrete will is needed also in this issue."

Candar continued explaining his views on Turkey's Iraq policy: "It seems that an Iraqi operation will occur at the same time. Turkey should make its Iraq policy concrete. Turkey should say to the U.S. and to international bodies what kind of Iraq it wants. It has to say what kind of situation in Iraq it does not want to see in Iraq after the Saddam regime. We have to have an Iraq policy, we haven't got any Iraq policy I think. We have to say to them we don't want a federal structure in Iraq. We have to explicitly determine our role in Iraq."

Responding to our question on the Turkomans, Candar criticized Turkey's Turkoman policy and said: "We have to say what we are demanding for the Kurds in the region. We are using the Turkomans for anti-Kurd policy and this is wrong. We have to say explicitly that we are wanting cultural rights, schools, broadcasting in mother tongue for the Turkomans," and continued, "If a federal Iraq will occur after the Saddam regime the Turkomans should also take part among these federative structures. We are seeing them like a card which might be used against Kurds. Our new policy should contribute to a compromise in the region, only by this way we can have an influence on the Kurds in the region."

Responding to TDN's question, "Is it possible for a Kurdish state in the region," Candar said: "A Kurdish state is not possible in the region. The U.S did not support the Kurds and even left them alone in 1991, against Saddam. This state is not feasible in the region. There are also Kurds in Syria, Iran and Turkey. These states of course will not give permission to the establishment of a state. I think the U.S. will not even attempt this, because this type of a state will be farfetched," and added: "I also think the U.S. attitude on an Iraqi operation is crucial, and it might pave the way to instability in the region."

Candar also commented on the possible performance of the political parties which might come to power after the elections, and said: "The rhetoric of the government will be important after the elections. I think a coalition government which will be lead by the Republican People's Party can solve the problems. And if the Justice and Development Party will govern Turkey, its success and solution of the problems depends on its rhetoric."

Candar also drew attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and said that "this conflict may affect Turkey. Because Turkey has a cooperation with Israel which is continuing well, but Turkey has also important links with the Arabs, both coming from history and emanating from regional problems."

[07] Trad-Unions in the pseudostate are not pleased with the minimum wage increases

According to the paper, various Trade Unions in the pseudostate, among them the Revolutionary Worker's Union and the so-called Public Servants Trade Union, pointed out that the cost of living increased, and this fact reduced the purchasing power of the workers. Therefore the increase of the gross minimum wage is not able to cover this loss.

The Trade Unions said that workers in the pseudostate are very disappointed by the level of the increase and that it did not fulfill their expectations. They also pointed out that it is essential that the minimum wage is increased even more.

[B] COMMENTARIES, EDITORIALS AND ANALYSIS

[08] Everyone who crosses from the pseudostate to the free areas of Cyprus must take the permission of the Turkish army

"If I am not wrong Sami Kohen was the one who has written that there are 10 thousand Turkish Cypriots living in the southern part of Cyprus. He had said that he took this information from the TRNC authorities.

A long time passed since then. The number might have reached 15 thousand. Those who cross are not few anymore . People go to the south by buses, as if they are going to picnic. Is there a decrease of population? No there is not. While the Turkish Cypriots are getting less, the growth of population increases. The increase is inversity proportional.

There is more to be said. Those who remain unemployed and hungry knock firstly on the door of the National People's Movement (NPM) and they say that they want to go to the South to work. The authority, which gives the permission, is immediately informed about the issue. If the person is suitable, that is if he is one of them, if he is a nationalist, if he is to listen to the instructions of the great leader, then the permission is granted. There are people who benefit from this, such as those who ensure the communication. Who else? Is it not necessary to give an amount of money to some places for the permission? As you will understand, this suits the chauvinists. If you do not believe me, take your camera and go to Pergamos village. At the Pergamos gate there are more people than at the Habur and Kapikule gates in Turkey, which we watch on the Turkish TV channels.

In my view this place is not a border gate. It is only a sign for the division of my country. Those who cross to the South are accused at the military courts of violating a military area. The southern part of our divided country is described a forbidden military area. If the permission of the army is not taken this is the situation. In case it is taken, you can go and come and you are not violating the restricted military area.

Do you know how it looks like? All the charges filed against us are because we 'published articles with which we insulted the officials of a foreign country'. If the officials of Turkey are foreigners here, as it is written in the letter sent to us by the Attorney-General, then is the foreign army which is here, not an occupation army?

When the army gives permission, then crossing to the south is free. If the Turkish Cypriots want to cross in order to go to the other part of their country without permission, then it (the south) becomes a 'military area' and they are lead to trial. What a strange situation, is it not?!!!"

/SK

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