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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 242, 00-12-15Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 4, No. 242, 15 December 2000CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] FORMER ARMENIAN PREMIER AGAIN CRITICIZES PARLIAMENT SHOOTINGS INVESTIGATIONAram Sargsian, the brother and successor of slain Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian, told journalists in Yerevan on 14 December that he does not believe military prosecutor Gagik Djahangirian has succeeded in determining who was behind the shootings in the Armenian parliament on 27 October 1999, in which his brother and seven other officials died, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Sargsian, who earlier branded Djahangirian a coward, questioned the rationale for the release of close associates of President Robert Kocharian who had been detained on suspicion of involvement in the killings. Djahangirian has said that he will continue to investigate the possibility that the five gunmen who perpetrated the murders were acting at the behest of others. The gunmen insist they were acting alone. LF[02] INDEPENDENT ARMENIAN BROADCASTER MAY END TV BROADCASTS BECAUSE OF STATE PRESSUREThe Noyan Tapan news agency released a statement on 14 December saying that it may soon end its television broadcasts to prevent financial losses stemming from actions by government agencies. The government has demanded that the agency modify its antenna. The agency said that it considers the government actions to be "pressure on the free media masked under the camouflage of 'technical reasons.'" Power to Noyan Tapan's transmitter was cut off late on 30 October to prevent the broadcast of footage of the arrest earlier that evening of businessman Arkadii Vartanian (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 November 2000). LF/PG[03] AZERBAIJAN SEEKS EXPORT POSSIBILITY FOR SHAH DENIZ GASFollowing a meeting with Turkish Energy Minister Yuerdakul Yigitgueden in Baku on 14 December, Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev said that Turkmenistan is now the main obstacle to the construction of a Trans- Caspian gas pipeline from that country to Turkey via Azerbaijan and Georgia, ITAR-TASS and Turan reported. Aliev added that if no progress is made on the Trans-Caspian project, Baku will consider exporting gas from the major Shah-Deniz Caspian deposit via Iran. Production at that field is due to begin in 2002. Aliev said Iran has already agreed to import some of that gas. On 13 December, Turan had quoted Azerbaijan state oil company president Natik Aliev as saying that Ankara has provisionally agreed to buy 1-2 billion cubic meters of Shah Deniz gas annually but that Baku wants a commitment from Ankara to purchase 5 billion cubic meters. Without specifying a figure, he said a contract on sales could be signed during President Aliev's planned visit to Turkey next month. Yigitgueden discussed the export of Shah Deniz gas via Georgia with Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze before his arrival in Baku, Caucasus Press reported on 13 December. LF[04] AZERBAIJANI LEADERSHIP DISAPPOINTED BY OSCE MINSK GROUP VISITAzerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliev told ANS TV on 13 December that his government is disappointed by the failure of the OSCE Minsk Group co- chairman to present new ideas for a settlement of the Karabakh dispute during their visit to Baku earlier this week (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report,"Vol. 3, No. 48, 14 December 2000). PG[05] COMPUTER VIRUS HITS AZERBAIJANI GOVERNMENT OFFICESBaku's "Zerkalo" newspaper reported on 14 December that a new computer virus has struck computers in the government as well as in newspaper offices and banks. Officials do not know whether the virus was inserted into the system or if the outbreak will spread. PG[06] GEORGIAN OPPOSITIONIST WARNS OF RUSSIAN THREATNodar Natadze, the leader of the People's Front of Georgia, said that if Georgia does not take measures to respond to the current Russian "threat," the country "will face the greatest disaster in its history," Caucasus Press reported on 14 December. He urged the government to seek help from the UN and OSCE to prevent Russia from seizing the Pankisi valley, where several thousand Chechen refugees have settled. In other comments, Natadze said that he opposes the introduction of dual citizenship, something, he argued, that is "against our national interests." PG[07] GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT APPROVES STATE BUDGETThe Georgian parliament on 13 December passed the state budget in the third and final reading, Interfax reported the following day. It is the first time ever that parliament has adopted a budget within the time frame set by the country's constitution. The final draft leaves both revenues and expenditures unchanged, at 839.7 million lari ($420 million) and 1.117 billion lari respectively (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 December 2000). The resulting 277.6 million lari deficit is equal to 4 percent of the country's GDP. Meanwhile, another member of the ruling Union of Citizens of Georgia parliamentary faction, Tamar Ninoshvili, has shifted her allegiance to the New Faction, Caucasus Press reported on 14 December. Her defection raises the number of members of that faction to 12. PG[08] ACCUSED IDP REFUSES TO PLEAD IN GEORGIAN ATTEMPTED ASSASSINATION CASEAleksandr Zakaraya, a displaced person from Abkhazia recently arrested in connection with the February 1998 attempt to assassinate Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, has refused to testify or plead at all on those charges, "Rezonansi" reported on 14 December. But Zakaraya has admitted that he was present at the scene of the attack, and he has blamed Shevardnadze for precipitating the war in Abkhazia, which culminated in the flight of some 240,000 of that republic's inhabitants. PG[09] KAZAKHSTAN'S PRESIDENT LASHES OUT AT OPPOSITION FIGURE...In a two-hour interview aired on Kazakh Television on 13 December, Nursultan Nazarbaev accused opposition figure Seydakhmet Quttyqadam of taking money from the Russian secret services to spread discord among Kazakhs by classifying them into clans and hordes, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported on 14 December. In other comments, Nazarbaev said the Kazakh language might eventually be written in Latin rather than Cyrillic script but that scholars should devise a new transliteration system rather than copy that used by Uzbekistan. He also said that the Islamic holiday of Id- al-Fitr will not be marked as a national one, nor will the town of Turkestan be designated as the country's spiritual center. PG[10] ...EXPRESSES SATISFACTION WITH DEFENSE CAPABILITY...Nazarbaev also expressed his satisfaction with the current capabilities of Kazakhstan's defense forces. "The level of training in the armed forces and the availability of an air force and land-based armored military hardware ensure the required level of defense capability." But he said that more efforts must be devoted to improving morale among the troops. PG[11] ...REDIVIDES DUTIES OF TWO MINISTRIES...President Nazarbaev has issued a series of decrees whereby the Ministry of Economy is renamed the Ministry of Economy and Trade and the former Ministry of Energy is given the new name of Trade and Industry the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, RFE/RL's Kazakh Service reported on 14 December. Nazarbaev promoted to the rank of deputy prime minister Viktor Shkolnik, who formerly headed the Ministry of Energy, Industry and Trade. He also appointed Berik Imashev to head the Anti-Monopoly Industry in place of Altai Tleuberdin, who has been named to head the staff of Prime Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev. LF[12] ...CURTAILS POWERS OF NATIONAL OIL COMPANYAnother presidential decree issued on 14 December strips the state oil company KazakhOil of the right to participate in production-sharing agreements on behalf of the state and receive royalties, Interfax reported. But the company retains the right to own state shares in agreements on the exploration, development, production, and refining of hydrocarbons and to keep the stake it currently owns in production and refining companies. LF[13] RUSSIA REINFORCES KAZAKH BORDER TO STOP DRUGS, ILLEGAL MIGRANTS press service of the Russian Security Council told ITAR-TASS on 14 December that Moscow has reinforced its border with Kazakhstan to block the flow of drugs, contraband, and illegal migration. The council stressed that "the development of the situation on the Kazakh border shows that that direction is becoming more and more attractive for criminal groups." PGKYRGYZ PARLIAMENT PROPOSED NEW TAXES PROVE UNPALATABLE[14] At the session of a joint parliamentary-governmental commission created to assess the new tax options proposed by President Askar Akaev (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 13 and 14 December 2000), parliamentary deputies reaffirmed on 14 December their opposition to raising the annual land tax from an average 221 soms ($4.50) to 559 soms per hectare, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Parliamentary deputy Borubai Juraev argued that the increased rate would be "too heavy a burden" on the rural population. The average annual salary in Kyrgyzstan is $20 per month. Several parliamentary deputies have said they will boycott the 15 December parliamentary session, at which Akaev will participate in the debate on his tax proposals. LFFORMER KYRGYZ DEPUTY PM CHARGED[15] The Kyrgyzstan government accused former Deputy Prime Minister Boris Silaev of breaking the law by transferring land title to a group interested in building a new market, Kyrgyz-Press reported on 13 December. Silaev left Bishkek permanently last month without giving any reason for doing so and now works for the Moscow city government (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 17 November 2000). PGUZBEK PARLIAMENT ADOPTS BUDGET FOR 2001[16] Deputies approved the 2001 budget on 14 December in the final reading, Interfax reported. The budget sets revenues at 1.1528 trillion soms ($3.09 billion) and expenditures at 1.201 trillion soms. The resulting 57.5 billion som deficit is equal to 1.5 percent of GDP and will be compensated for by the proceeds of privatization (1 percent) and by loans from the Central Bank (1 percent). GDP growth for next year is forecast at 4.5 percent, while industrial output is expected to rise by 5.8 percent and agricultural production by 5.5 percent. LFUZBEK PRESIDENT VIEWS RUSSIA AS PRIORITY PARTNER...[17] Islam Karimov on 14 December told ITAR-TASS that Russia is and will remain a priority partner for Uzbekistan. He added that Russia remains an equal and powerful partner but complained that "often we cannot combine these two concepts because as a rule, more accent has been placed on 'powerful' than on 'equal.'" Karimov stressed that "we want our relations to be built on an equal basis so that we are not a former Soviet republic." PG...PLANS REFERENDUM ON PARLIAMENTARY REFORM [18] During an interval in the parliament session on 14 December, Karimov proposed holding a referendum on his earlier proposal to create a bicameral parliament, Interfax reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 May 2000). He said that referendum should take place before the next parliamentary poll, which is due in December 2004. Karimov repeated the argument that the lower chamber should concentrate on legislative activity, while the upper chamber would represent the interests of all the country's regions. He stressed, however, that his proposed reform should not be interpreted as reflecting dissatisfaction with the work of the present 250-deputy legislature or as heralding pre-term elections. LFUZBEKISTAN MOVES TO CONTROL BORDERS[19] Uzbek and Kazakh officials told Interfax on 14 December that the delimitation of their mutual border is proceeding "normally." Meanwhile, Uzbekistan closed its border with Kyrgyzstan in order to control smuggling and prevent the spread of militants, Khabar news agency reported on 13 December. PGPG[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[20] NATO HOLDS SUSPECTED ALBANIAN GUERRILLAS...KFOR peacekeepers on 14 December detained five ethnic Albanians near Gjilan on the suspicion that the men are members of the Liberation Army of Presevo, Medvedja, and Bujanovac (UCPMB). KFOR is checking whether 12 other ethnic Albanians riding in the same van are also guerrillas, Reuters reported. The Atlantic alliance has pledged to do all it can to keep UCPMB fighters from infiltrating into southern Serbia from Kosova. PM[21] ...WARNS SERBIAN FORCES TO STAY OUT OF ZONEU.S. Brigadier General Dennis E Hardy, who is the outgoing commander of peacekeepers in eastern Kosova, said that KFOR will not permit Serbian police or military to take control of the demilitarized buffer zone just inside Serbia's border with Kosova, "The New York Times" reported on 15 December. He stressed that ethnic Albanians in Kosova will retaliate against local Serbs if Serbian forces on the other side of the frontier enter the zone. Serbian opposition leader Zoran Djindjic and his deputy, Cedomir Jovanovic, warned recently that Serbian forces may soon enter the zone to expel the guerrillas if the UCPMB continues to attack Serbian policemen or soldiers from positions in the area. In Bujanovac, supporters of former Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic called on the Serbian authorities to "urgently solve the problem" posed to local Serbs by the presence of the fighters in the zone, AP reported. PM[22] NEW U.S. COMMANDER IN KOSOVABrigadier General Kenneth J. Quinlan took over command of U.S. forces in Kosova, at a ceremony at Fort Bondsteel in eastern Kosova on 15 December, AP reported. PM[23] PRESEVO ALBANIAN PARTIES NOT TO TAKE PART IN SERBIAN VOTEOfficials of the two main ethnic Albanian political parties in the Presevo region said in Pristina on 14 December that their parties will not take part in the 23 December Serbian elections, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Representatives of the Party for Democratic Work and the United Democratic Party of the Albanians said that the Serbia-wide electoral threshold of 5 percent makes it impossible for them to win any offices. PM[24] GREEK MINISTER SLAMS ALBANIAN 'TERRORISM'Greek Defense Minister Akis Tsochatzopoulos said in Belgrade on 14 December that his government condemns "terrorist activity" by the UCPMB, AP reported. He also discussed a proposed "military and political agreement" between Belgrade and Athens with his Yugoslav counterpart, Slobodan Krapovic. The agreement would include the training of Yugoslav officers in Greece, as well as Greece's using its "good offices" to help Yugoslavia join NATO's Partnership for Peace Program, "Danas" reported. PM[25] EUROPEANS WONDER ABOUT WASHINGTON'S BALKAN PLANSNATO foreign ministers agreed in Brussels on 14 December that the alliance's missions in Bosnia and Kosova are far from completed, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Ministers also noted that the new U.S. administration's plans for its role in the Balkans are not yet clear. Outgoing Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said that the recent democratic changes in Croatia, Serbia, and Kosova are a welcome opportunity but do not constitute a solution to the region's problems. In Rome, Romano Prodi, who heads the EU Commission, told "La Repubblica" that Europe must be prepared to assume further obligations for keeping peace in the Balkans if the administration of President-elect George W. Bush decides to withdraw U.S. forces. Prodi noted that Europeans already make up 80 percent of the foreign troops in the Balkans. And in Stockholm, Wolfgang Petritsch, who is the international community's high representative in Bosnia, said that he believes that the U.S. will re-examine its role in Bosnia but will not pull its forces out of that republic entirely. PM[26] KOSOVA SUPREME COURT BEGINS WORKThe Kosova Supreme Court held its first session in Prishtina on 14 December, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. The court consists of 14 local and two foreign judges. The session marks the completion of the judicial reforms launched by the UN civilian authorities in the province in 1999. The court system is still plagued by a lack of qualified judges. PM[27] KOUCHNER: UN NOT TO ORGANIZE SERBIAN VOTE IN KOSOVABernard Kouchner, who is the outgoing head of the UN civilian administration in Kosova, said in Prishtina on 14 December that the UN will not organize or monitor the Serbian elections there on 23 December. He added that the international community will do what it can to provide security for voters, Reuters reported. PM[28] SERBIAN COURT CONVICTS TEN FOR EXTORTION OF KOSOVARSA Yugoslav army court in Nis on 14 December sentenced nine Serbian military policemen and one lawyer to prison terms totaling seven years for extorting money from Kosovar prisoners in their care. Five of the policemen and the lawyer received suspended sentences. The defendants charged prisoners fees for using mobile telephones and offered to secure them shorter sentences in return for cash payments. PM[29] EBRD ADMITS YUGOSLAVIA TO MEMBERSHIPThe European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has granted Yugoslavia membership, Reuters reported from Belgrade on 15 December. It is the first international financial organization to admit Belgrade following the fall of the former regime in October. The Yugoslav authorities are looking for a donor to pay the $15 million membership fee. PM[30] YUGOSLAVIA GETS NEW BANK NOTESMladjan Dinkic, who is governor of the National Bank, said in Belgrade on 14 December that the dinar is now fully convertible. He added that new coins and banknotes will soon be introduced into circulation to underscore the break he has made with Milosevic-era policies. Dinkic added that the Montenegrin authorities will have to decide for themselves if they want to introduce the new currency in their republic, where the German mark is legal tender. He said, however, that in Montenegro, there is "great interest" in the new currency, the Podgorica daily "Vijesti" reported. PM[31] NEW YUGOSLAV DEFENSE BODY SET UPThe Yugoslav government agreed in Belgrade on 14 December that Prime Minister Zoran Zizic will head a new Council on Defense and Security. A government spokesman added that the new civilian body will not interfere with the work of the mixed civilian and military Supreme Defense Council. The government also announced the recall of 17 ambassadors, including those stationed in Moscow, Prague, Brussels, Skopje, and Athens, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM[32] YUGOSLAV BASKETBALL STAR DIES AFTER SHOOTINGHaris Brkic of the Partizan Belgrade basketball team died in hospital on 15 December after being shot in the head four days earlier by a man apparently trying to break into Brkic's car, AP reported. Criminal violence has become commonplace in Belgrade in recent years, but this is the first killing involving a prominent athlete. It is not known whether the assailant, who fled, knew that the car he sought to rob belonged to Brkic. PM[33] YUGOSLAVIA, BOSNIA ESTABLISH DIPLOMATIC TIESYugoslav Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic and Bosnia's Jadranko Prlic signed documents in Belgrade on 15 December establishing full diplomatic relations between the two former Yugoslav republics, Reuters reported. PM[34] BOSNIAN SERB PARTIES FORM COALITIONThe Serbian Democratic Party founded by Radovan Karadzic has reached an agreement on a coalition with the Party of Democratic Progress of Mladen Ivanic and two smaller parties. The coalition will have 49 out of the 83 seats in the parliament, AP reported on 14 December. PM[35] CROATIAN CHIEF OF STAFF TO TESTIFY TO HAGUE TRIBUNALGeneral Petar Stipetic, who heads the General Staff, said in Zagreb on 14 December that he has been summoned to testify before the Hague-based war crimes tribunal about the 1995 Croatian army campaign against Serbian rebels (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 14 December 2000). Stipetic added that he will testify if the government authorizes him to do so. He said that if that is the case, he will "probably" testify before representatives of the tribunal in Croatia, "Jutarnji list" reported. PM[36] MASS GRAVE FOUND IN CROATIACroatian forensic experts said that they have found 18 bodies in a mass grave in Debelo Brdo in central Croatia. The experts added that they believe that the grave contains the remains of up to two dozen Serbian civilians killed during the 1991 war in the Gospic area, "Novi List" reported on 15 December. PM[37] ILIESCU CERTIFIED AS ROMANIAN PRESIDENT-ELECTThe Constitutional Court on 14 December certified Ion Iliescu as president- elect. Iliescu said the same day that the election process demonstrated that democratic forces "are united by things that are more important than the divisions among them." He said the elections also demonstrated that economic reforms must "respond to the expectations of the silent majority confronted with injustice" and that "there is a limit" to how much people can be expected to suffer. Iliescu is to be sworn in by the parliament later this month. MS[38] HUNGARIAN PARTY TO JOIN ROMANIAN OPPOSITION PACT?Speaking after a meeting with the leadership of the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR), Adrian Nastase, the likely head of the new government, said that the two sides agreed that many of their policy principles are "consensual." Next week, an agreement on "limited cooperation" in the parliament will be signed by his own Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) and the UDMR, the National Liberal Party and the Democratic Party. Separate agreements with each of these parties on "more specific issues of joint concern" will also be signed. Nastase announced that the name of the Department for National Minorities will "probably" be changed to "Department for Inter-Ethnic Relations" and that the body will be subordinated to the new Ministry for Public Information. Under the outgoing government, this department was subordinated to the premier and its head had ministerial rank. MS[39] MOLDOVAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT SAYS PRESIDENTIAL MANDATE ENDS WITH SUCCESSOR'S ELECTIONThe Constitutional Court on 14 December ruled that the mandate of an incumbent president ends on the day his successor is sworn in, Infotag reported. The court was asked by President Lucinschi to clarify the matter, while deputy Vladimir Slonari asked the court to determine whether the parliamentary speaker or the premier acts as president in the event that the presidency remains unfilled. The court said an acting president is appointed only if the incumbent president is incapable of performing his duties, resigns, is impeached, or dies in office. The ruling means that Lucinschi, whose mandate ends on 15 January 2001, will continue in office if a successor is not elected by the parliament at the end of the month. MS[40] MOLDOVAN GOVERNMENT THREATENS TO RESIGNPrime Minister Dumitru Braghis has threatened that his government will have to resign and Moldova will have to declare bankruptcy, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported on 14 December. Braghis spoke in the parliament after the legislature failed to approve an agreement between the government and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on handing over preferential shares to the EBRD in a company that has been unable to pay its restructuring debt to the bank. Braghis said approving the agreement is one of the conditions stipulated by the IMF to resume lending. The government is unable to pay pensions and salaries without renewed IMF funding, he warned. MS[41] MOLDOVAN DEPUTIES SUBMIT DRAFT ON OUTLAWING FASCIST, COMMUNIST PARTIESA group of deputies form the Popular Party Christian Democratic on 13 December submitted an amendment to the law on political parties that would outlaw formations and political organizations "of fascist, Nazi, or communist orientation," Flux reported the next day. The draft also envisages prohibiting the display of fascist, Nazi, and communist symbols. The Party of Moldovan Communists (PCM) is the largest group in the parliament. On 14 December, PCM leader Vladimir Voronin declined to step down as presidential candidate and negotiate with the other parliamentary groups on a joint candidate, as proposed by parliamentary chairman Dumitru Diacov two days earlier. MS[C] END NOTE[42] HOW CLOSE IS A SETTLEMENT OF THE KARABAKH CONFLICT?By Liz FullerThe recent visit by the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group to Ankara, Yerevan, Stepanakert, and Baku has again raised hopes that a solution to the Karabakh conflict may be within reach. The co-chairs apparently hope that the promise of substantial economic benefits could induce the conflict parties to rethink their positions and show a greater readiness for compromise than they have done in the past. And the stopover of two of the three co-chairs in Ankara highlights the role envisaged by the international community for Turkey in providing economic assistance to both Armenia and Azerbaijan once a final peace agreement is reached. The U.S. co-chair, Carey Cavanaugh, told journalists in Yerevan on 11 December after his meeting with Armenian President Robert Kocharian that "the impression we have now is that all conflicting parties want to move forward and get a concrete result as soon as possible." The previous day, Cavanaugh had lauded as "a wonderful idea" the recent pledge by both Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Heidar Aliev, to try to reach a peace agreement before their respective terms in office end in 2003. Notwithstanding Cavanaugh's optimism and the stated desire of the two presidents to hammer out a permanent settlement, there are serious obstacles to any steps forward. First, it remains unclear what form the final settlement might take. Armenia continues to favor the so-called "common state" model proposed by the Minsk Group in November 1998, which envisages horizontal relations between Azerbaijan and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Azerbaijan, however, rejects the "horizontal" in favor of the "vertical" model and is prepared to grant the disputed enclave only "the highest degree of autonomy" within Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliev told Vienna's "Die Presse" earlier this month that any settlement is contingent on compromise by Armenia. Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian, for his part, told the same newspaper that "as long as Azerbaijan insists Karabakh must remain under its control as an autonomous region, there will be no solution to the conflict." True, the Russian Minsk Group co-chairman, Nikolai Gribkov, told journalists in Yerevan on 11 December that all four peace proposals offered by the Minsk Group since early 1997 remain on the table. Oskanian had suggested in July that it may prove possible to draft a new peace plan that combines elements of two or more of those proposals. He said that Yerevan would not rule out that approach provided that Karabakh's status is not pre- determined and the "package," rather than the "phased," approach is adopted. Given that Stepanakert rejected the two "package" peace proposals offered by the Minsk Group in May and July 1997 and that Azerbaijan voiced serious reservations about those proposals, the most promising framework from which to select elements of a new composite peace plan is the September 1997 Minsk Group proposal. According to Gerard Libaridian, who served as adviser to former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossian, that proposal, though based on the "phased" rather than the "package" approach, was more acceptable than the two previous drafts to both Armenia and Karabakh insofar as it did not include a mention of either Azerbaijan's territorial integrity or of Karabakh's future status vis-a-vis Baku. In addition, it provided security guarantees for the enclave's population that were absent from the two earlier drafts. Azerbaijan formally signaled its acceptance of that draft in October 1997, while Armenia agreed to it "in principle" but "with reservations." But the Karabakh leadership, despite Yerevan's urging, rejected it. Moreover, it is unclear who is to assume responsibility for crafting a new, composite draft peace plan. Aliev has said that he considers that it is the Minsk Group's responsibility to do so. The co-chairs, in turn, have said that they do not intend to offer yet another draft peace proposal but that the OSCE will endorse any settlement that Aliev and Kocharian agree to. Nor is the peace plan itself the only bone of contention. Armenia and Azerbaijan also disagree over the participation of the Nagorno Karabakh leadership in the peace process. Armenian President Kocharian has consistently argued that the Azerbaijani leadership should conduct direct talks with Stepanakert. Meeting in Stepanakert on 11 December with the co- chairs, Nagorno Karabakh President Arkadii Ghukasian argued that Karabakh representatives should participate in the ongoing series of talks between Kocharian and Azerbaijan's President Aliev. But Guliev in his recent interview with "Die Presse" ruled out talks with what he termed "a puppet regime," arguing that "it was Armenia that supported and waged the war." It could be argued that Baku's rejection of Stepanakert as a negotiating partner calls into question the sincerity of the Azerbaijani leadership's stated desire to resolve the conflict. But Baku's action could, however, reflect its concern that direct talks with the Karabakh leadership could trigger mass protests in Azerbaijan by the estimated 800,000 persons forced to flee their homes during the 1993 Armenian offensive, most of whom still live in appalling conditions in temporary housing. The Armenian leadership, too, must contend with a domestic opposition that has repeatedly warned against "selling out" Karabakh. But Oskanian told "Die Presse" that in light of the "preparatory work" conducted by the two presidents during their meetings since July 1999, he hopes it may prove possible to reach a settlement in 2001. 15-12-00 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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