RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 4, No. 140, 00-07-24

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 4, No. 140, 24 July 2000

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIA RELEASES MORE POWS

[02] LAWYERS DOUBT KARABAKH EX-MINISTER'S TRIAL COULD TAKE PLACE

[03] AZERBAIJANI PARLIAMENT AMENDS LAW ON CENTRAL ELECTORAL

[04] ...TO DISMAY OF AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION

[05] UN SECRETARY-GENERAL CHASTISES GEORGIA, ABKHAZIA

[06] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT AFFIRMS READINESS TO MEET WITH ABKHAZ

[07] PRESIDENT SAYS GEORGIA ASPIRES TO EU MEMBERSHIP

[08] RELATIVES AGREE TO BURY SLAIN GEORGIAN INSURGENT LEADER

[09] GEORGIAN COMMUNISTS CALL FOR 'UNION' WITH RUSSIA

[10] KAZAKH PRESIDENT ENDORSES LAW ON FIRST PRESIDENT

[11] JAILED KYRGYZ JOURNALIST FREED

[12] TURKMEN PRESIDENT ADVOCATES HIGHER EDUCATION ONLY FOR SELECT

[13] TAJIK GOVERNMENT REVIEWS INTERIM ECONOMIC INDICATORS

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[14] WEST WON'T RECOGNIZE YUGOSLAV ELECTION RESULTS

[15] PODGORICA PLEASED WITH OKINAWA DECISION ON YUGOSLAV

[16] ...BUT FEELINGS MIXED IN BELGRADE

[17] YUGOSLAV UPPER HOUSE PASSES MILOSEVIC'S ELECTION LAWS

[18] PANIC: KEY TO CHANGE IS OUSTING MILOSEVIC

[19] YUGOSLAV ARMY BOAT 'MISTAKENLY' FIRES AT MONTENEGRIN POLICE

[20] KOSOVAR DAILY TO DEFY FINE ORDER

[21] KOSOVA PROTECTION FORCE OUT OF MONEY?

[22] KARADZIC SEEKING DEAL WITH MILOSEVIC?

[23] CHANGE IN BOSNIAN ARMY COMMAND

[24] ARREST, INDICTMENTS IN CROATIA

[25] ROMANIAN PREMIER MEETS CENTER-RIGHT LEADERS...

[26] ...WHILE LIBERALS STILL VAGUE ABOUT THEIR OPTIONS

[27] HUNGARIAN PARTY IN ROMANIA MODIFIES RULES OF 'ELECTORAL

[28] ROMANIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS, SOCIALISTS TO MERGE

[29] TRANSDNIESTER LEADER DISMISSES GOVERNMENT

[30] HOMBACH HAS GOOD NEWS FOR BULGARIAN HOSTS

[C] END NOTE

[31] MIXED SIGNALS FOR CROATIA

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIA RELEASES MORE POWS

another three Azerbaijani prisoners of war, who shortly after

were flown to Baku on a UN aircraft, Reuters and Turan

reported. Six Azerbaijani prisoners held in Yerevan and

Stepanakert were released several days earlier in response to

an appeal by visiting OSCE Chairwoman in Office Benita

Ferrero-Waldner (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 July 2000).

According to Turan, two Azerbaijani prisoners still remain in

Armenian captivity. LF

[02] LAWYERS DOUBT KARABAKH EX-MINISTER'S TRIAL COULD TAKE PLACE

Leading Armenian lawyers expressed doubt in

Yerevan on 21 July that the trial of former Karabakh Defense

Minister Karen Babayan could be held in Armenia. RFE/RL's

Yerevan bureau reported. Babayan is being held in pre-trial

custody in Stepanakert on charges of masterminding the 22

March attempt to assassinate Arkadii Ghukasian, president of

the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. He declared a

hunger strike the previous day to demand that he be tried in

Armenia, arguing that the Karabakh judiciary is incapable of

assuring that the court proceedings against him would be free

and fair (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 and 21 July 2000). But

Gagik Ghazinian, president of Armenia's biggest lawyers'

association, pointed to the "legal uncertainty" surrounding

the status of Karabakh, which considers itself independent of

Armenia. Another lawyer, Tigran Yesayan, said there are "no

legal grounds" to hold the trial in Armenia. LF

[03] AZERBAIJANI PARLIAMENT AMENDS LAW ON CENTRAL ELECTORAL

After a five-hour debate on 21 July, deputies

voted to amend the Law on the Central Electoral Commission to

empower that body to adopt decisions by a simple majority,

rather than a two-thirds majority, Turan reported. It also

annulled the requirement that gave the ruling Yeni Azerbaycan

party and the opposition the right to veto one candidate

proposed by the other. Opposition candidates did not

participate in the vote on those amendments, which deprive

the opposition of its power to block decisions adopted by the

18-member commission. Parliamentary chairman Murtuz Alesqerov

said deputies "had no choice" but to enact the amendments in

the light of the decision by six opposition representatives

to boycott the work of the commission to demand changes in

the electoral law, Reuters reported. (see "RFE/RL Caucasus

Report," Vol. 3, No. 29, 20 July 2000). President Heidar

Aliev signed the amendments into law on 2 July. LF

[04] ...TO DISMAY OF AZERBAIJANI OPPOSITION

Popular Front deputy Gulamgusein Aliev told Reuters on 21

July that the parliament's vote "shows that the government

isn't interested in holding a democratic election." He said

opposition parties will now consider boycotting the ballot,

as they had earlier threatened to do. Azerbaijan National

Independence Party chairman Etibar Mamedov said the

amendments to the law "are aimed at exacerbating" the

domestic political situation, according to Turan. Also on 21

July, Gerard Stoudmann, director of the OSCE Office for

Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, issued a statement

calling on the opposition representatives on the election

commission to abandon their boycott and cooperate with that

body. The statement said it would be a "serious mistake" for

the opposition to refuse to participate in the ongoing

discussion of amendments to the election law or to "embark on

a course that could escalate political confrontation." LF

[05] UN SECRETARY-GENERAL CHASTISES GEORGIA, ABKHAZIA

statement released in New York on 21 July, UN Secretary-

General Kofi Annan accused both the Georgian and the Abkhaz

leadership of "using the desperate conditions of the refugees

and internally displaced persons in the Gali region of

Abkhazia as a bargaining chip during negotiations," ITAR-TASS

reported. He characterized that tactic as "unacceptable,"

adding that "the desperate conditions of thousands of IDPs

get worse every day." Annan called on both parties to

demonstrate the political will to resolve the conflict. Also

on 21 July, Caucasus Press quoted Georgian Foreign Ministry

spokesman Avtandil Napetvaridze as saying that by 31 August

Georgia will unveil the new blueprint defining Abkhazia's

political status, which is being drafted in consultation with

the UN. The UN Security Council is scheduled to discuss the

Abkhaz conflict on that date. LF

[06] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT AFFIRMS READINESS TO MEET WITH ABKHAZ

Eduard Shevardnadze said during his regular

Monday radio broadcast on 24 July that he is ready to met in

Sukhum with Abkhaz President Vladislav Ardzinba to discuss

the new UN document, Caucasus Press reported. For the past

two years Shevardnadze has said he would meet with Ardzinba

only to sign a formal agreement on some aspect of resolving

the conflict. But Ardzinba wrote to UN Secretary-General

Annan in February recalling that under the appendix to an

agreement signed by Georgian and Abkhaz representatives in

1994 Abkhazia's future status is defined as that of "a

subject with sovereign rights within the framework of a Union

state" (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 3, No. 9, 3 March

2000). Ardzinba said his leadership will reject as

interference in the unrecognized republic's internal affairs

any attempt to impose on it a status that subordinates

Abkhazia to the central Georgian government. LF

[07] PRESIDENT SAYS GEORGIA ASPIRES TO EU MEMBERSHIP

Shevardnadze said in London last week that joining the EU is

"a long-term objective" for his country, Caucasus Press

reported. Shevardnadze added that "we understand this

objective is not of the nearest future, as democracy in

Georgia and especially the economy are far from perfection,

but we are on the right path." LF

[08] RELATIVES AGREE TO BURY SLAIN GEORGIAN INSURGENT LEADER

family of Colonel Akaki Eliava, who was killed in unclear

circumstances by Georgian security officials in western

Georgia on 9 July, said on 24 July that they will inter his

body on 27 July, Caucasus Press reported. They had earlier

refused to do so until three of Eliava's supporters arrested

on 9 July are released (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 July 2000).

LF

[09] GEORGIAN COMMUNISTS CALL FOR 'UNION' WITH RUSSIA

People's Patriotic Union of Georgia, which comprises 18 left-

wing parties, has called for the creation of "a fraternal and

equal union between Georgia and Russia," Caucasus Press

reported on 22 July. In an appeal addressed to Russian

President Vladimir Putin, those groups affirm that such a

union would help Georgia restore its independence and

territorial integrity and revive its economy. They have

similarly appealed to the Georgian authorities "to make a

resolute step toward expanding cooperation with Russia." LF

[10] KAZAKH PRESIDENT ENDORSES LAW ON FIRST PRESIDENT

Nazarbaev on 21 July signed the Law on the First President of

Kazakhstan, which gives him extended powers even after the

expiry of his presidential term in 2006, Interfax reported

(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 and 28 June 2000 ). The

Constitutional Court of Kazakhstan had ruled the previous day

that the law does not violate the country's constitution. LF

[11] JAILED KYRGYZ JOURNALIST FREED

journalist from Djalalabad in southern Kyrgyzstan, was

released from jail on 21 July following an appeal to the

Djalalabad Oblast court, according to an Internews press

release. Ibraimov had been sentenced and fined 107,000 soms

($2,250) on 19 June for an article he published in the

newspaper "Akikat" last April. That article detailed rumors

that a district judge had accepted a bribe for ruling in

favor of a specific candidate in a dispute over the outcome

of the February-March parliamentary elections (see "RFE/RL

Kyrgyz Report," 30 June 2000). The court reduced his fine to

10,000 soms. LF

[12] TURKMEN PRESIDENT ADVOCATES HIGHER EDUCATION ONLY FOR SELECT

Addressing education sector officials on 20 July,

Saparmurat Niyazov proposed in the future university faculty

staff teach students in groups of no more than five and that

curricula be revised to eliminate subjects unrelated to a

student's prospective profession, Interfax reported. Niyazov

added that the family background of students wishing to enter

higher education would be screened in order to identify "the

most worthy" applicants. The screening process, he said,

would go back three generations. LF

[13] TAJIK GOVERNMENT REVIEWS INTERIM ECONOMIC INDICATORS

government session to discuss the country's economic

performance for the first six months of 2000, Asia Plus-Blitz

reported. According to Finance Minister Safarali Najmuddinov,

GDP increased by 6.5 percent during that period compared with

the first six months of 1999, while industrial output grew by

9 percent. Salary arrears in the budget sector was reduced,

but pensions arrears grew during the first half of the year.

Inflation stood at 16.6 percent. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[14] WEST WON'T RECOGNIZE YUGOSLAV ELECTION RESULTS

leaders meeting at the recent G-8 Okinawa summit agreed not

to recognize the results of any upcoming Yugoslav elections

held under the terms of recent constitutional amendments,

"Danas" reported. Michael Steiner, who is chief foreign

policy adviser to German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, told

journalists in Okinawa on 22 July that Schroeder and Italian

Prime Minister Giuliano Amato agreed that elections held on

the basis of the new legislation will be invalid. Steiner

added that Schroeder and French President Jacques Chirac

stressed the importance of re-establishing democracy in

Serbia. Schroeder said that Milosevic's constitutional

changes recall the 1933 Enabling Act, which permitted Adolf

Hitler to consolidate his power. Steiner noted that Russian

President Vladimir Putin told his G-8 counterparts that

Russia will support the group's efforts to encourage

democracy in Serbia. It is not clear if Putin agreed not to

recognize the election results. The Russian leader is more

concerned about good relations with the G-8 countries--

especially with Russia's chief creditor, Germany--than about

supporting Belgrade, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung"

commented. PM

[15] PODGORICA PLEASED WITH OKINAWA DECISION ON YUGOSLAV

Montenegrin Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic said

in Podgorica on 22 July that his government stands by its

previous decision to boycott any federal elections that

Milosevic may call. The next day, Foreign Minister Branko

Lukovac said that his government feels vindicated in its

opposition to the constitutional amendments by the G-8's

position, which, he added, has Russia's support, RFE/RL's

South Slavic Service reported. PM

[16] ...BUT FEELINGS MIXED IN BELGRADE

created consternation within the Serbian opposition, however,

"Vesti" reported from Belgrade on 24 July. Vuk Draskovic's

Serbian Renewal Movement and others who favor an election

boycott feel vindicated by the news from Okinawa. Alliance

for Change leader Vladan Batic, for his part, said that the

situation of the opposition has "become more complicated."

Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic argued that "if the

Serbian opposition wins a majority and loses [the election

overall] because of a Montenegrin boycott, the whole world

will see them as Milosevic's saviors. Milosevic can't win if

Montenegro takes part," "Blic" reported. Nenad Canak, who

heads the League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina, told the

daily "Magyar Szo" that the most important issue is not

participating in the vote but rather maintaining opposition

unity in order to unseat Milosevic. Most opposition leaders

are slated to meet on 25 July to discuss how to react to the

latest developments. PM

[17] YUGOSLAV UPPER HOUSE PASSES MILOSEVIC'S ELECTION LAWS

upper house of the federal parliament passed a new election

law on 24 July, and the lower house is expected to do

likewise later in the day, Reuters reported. The federal

government is widely expected to call new elections once both

houses have passed the legislation that creates conditions

favorable to Milosevic and his allies. PM

[18] PANIC: KEY TO CHANGE IS OUSTING MILOSEVIC

Prime Minister Milan Panic told Zagreb's "Jutarnji list" of

24 July that no one should expect Serbian democracy to

develop as long as Milosevic is in office. The Serbian-

American businessman stressed that just as democratic

political life did not develop in Croatia until after the

opposition came to power in early 2000, so one cannot expect

too much from Milosevic's opponents as long as the

dictatorship continues. Panic said that on 24 July he will

discuss with Croatian President Stipe Mesic the prospects of

both Croatia and a democratic Serbia entering the EU at the

same time. The former prime minister said that he and other

one-time leaders, including outgoing Bosnian Muslim leader

Alija Izetbegovic and former Macedonian President Kiro

Gligorov, will hold a meeting in early 2001 to offer to share

their experience and ideas with upcoming politicians from the

younger generation. PM

[19] YUGOSLAV ARMY BOAT 'MISTAKENLY' FIRES AT MONTENEGRIN POLICE

A Yugoslav army patrol boat fired on 22 July at a

Montenegrin police patrol boat on Lake Shkoder, Reuters

reported two days later. An army helicopter flew several

times over the police boat before the army ship opened fire.

Some of the crew of the army boat later told Montenegrin

journalists that they did not realize their target was a

police ship until they were firing at it. The Podgorica daily

"Vijesti" called the police boat's escape "miraculous." There

is widespread smuggling in the Lake Shkoder area. PM

[20] KOSOVAR DAILY TO DEFY FINE ORDER

publisher of the newspaper "Dita," said in Prishtina on 22

July that he will not pay a $11,900 fine imposed recently by

OSCE authorities for publishing information about alleged

Serbian war criminals. Beqaj stressed that he will continue

to publish such articles until Kosova has a functioning

judicial system that brings all war criminals to justice.

Local OSCE representatives have accused him of engaging in

"vigilante journalism" that led to the death of one young

Serb earlier this year (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 May 2000).

PM

[21] KOSOVA PROTECTION FORCE OUT OF MONEY?

administration in Kosova has found that it has run out of

money to pay the Kosova Protection Force until January 2001,

when the UN itself will directly pay the wages of the force's

members, London's "The Times" reported on 24 July. PM

[22] KARADZIC SEEKING DEAL WITH MILOSEVIC?

leader and indicted war criminal Radovan Karadzic recently

visited Belgrade to seek a deal with Milosevic, London's "The

Sunday Times" reported on 23 July. It is not clear whether

Karadzic succeeded in obtaining a safe home for himself in

Serbia out of the reach of NATO peacekeepers in return for

providing Milosevic advice on Bosnian Serb politics.

Milosevic is interested in "creating mayhem" in the Republika

Srpska, the newspaper added. In another article, the same

newspaper suggested that a home in Serbia is not necessarily

safe. The article reported that NATO used unemployed Bosnian

Serb mercenaries to capture Stevan Todorovic in Serbia in

1998 and bring him to Bosnia. PM

[23] CHANGE IN BOSNIAN ARMY COMMAND

replaced General Rasim Delic as commander of the Bosnian

federal army on 21 July. Both men are Muslims and seasoned

veterans of the 1992-1995 war. Dudakovic was best known for

his role in defending the Bihac pocket in northwest Bosnia.

PM

[24] ARREST, INDICTMENTS IN CROATIA

on charges of tax evasion exceeding $4 million, AP reported

from Zagreb on 21 July. Zubak is Croatia's biggest car

importer and was close to the government of the late

President Franjo Tudjman. Elsewhere, a court charged

businessman Miroslav Kutle and 12 of his associates with

embezzling nearly $6 million from the Tisak newspaper

distribution firm. Kutle was also close to the Tudjman-era

establishment. PM

[25] ROMANIAN PREMIER MEETS CENTER-RIGHT LEADERS...

told the leaders of the National Peasant Party Christian

Democratic (PNTCD) and the Union of Rightist Forces on 21

July that his decision on whether to run for president

depends on the size of the alliance that backs his candidacy

and whether this alliance will back the reform policies he is

now pursuing as head of the government. Isarescu urged the

leaders of the two parties to conclude talks on the new

alliance by 1 August, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS

[26] ...WHILE LIBERALS STILL VAGUE ABOUT THEIR OPTIONS

21 July, PNTCD and National Liberal Party (PNL) negotiating

teams decided that by the end of the week they will formulate

a "political offer" on a possible electoral alliance. PNL

Deputy Chairman Paul Pacuraru said after the meeting that the

final decision on the PNL's options will be taken by the

party's extraordinary congress on 18 August. He also said an

alliance including the PNL, the PNTCD, and the Alliance for

Romania (APR) would have "a good chance" of winning the

parliamentary elections, adding that the PNL believes

Isarescu is a "most suitable" candidate for the presidency.

Pacuraru said he believes APR leader Teodor Melescanu may

withdraw from the presidential race if polls show him

trailing Isarescu. MS

[27] HUNGARIAN PARTY IN ROMANIA MODIFIES RULES OF 'ELECTORAL

The Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania's

(UDMR) Council of Representatives, meeting in Targu Mures on

22 July, decided to amend regulations on candidates running

in parliamentary elections, Mediafax reported. The council

accepted UDMR Chairman Bela Marko's proposal that candidates

must have been UDMR members for at least three years, instead

of six months, as required until now. It also decided that

those who since 1990 have run on lists other than those of

the UDMR or as independents cannot be included on the UDMR's

lists. And it ruled that UDMR mayors and local or county

councilors elected in the June local elections must serve

their full term in office and cannot be parliamentary

candidates. Prospective candidates must declare in writing

they did not collaborate with the communist secret police.

The council postponed a decision on whether the UDMR will

field a presidential candidate of its own. MS

[28] ROMANIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS, SOCIALISTS TO MERGE

Council of the Social Democratic Party of Romania (PSDR), a

junior member of the ruling coalition, has approved its

merging with the extra-parliamentary Socialist Party,

Romanian Radio reported. Socialist Party leader Tudor Mohora

is to become PSDR deputy chairman and chairman of the PSDR

National Council. The formation will retain its name. The

council also decided to start talks with Ion Iliescu's Party

of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR), the Democratic Party,

and the APR on forging a "social democratic pole." Most

council members voted to hold talks with the PDSR before

contacting other parties. Meanwhile, Victor Surdu, PSDR

candidate in the June Bucharest mayoral elections, has

resigned from the party, saying he backs a "center-right

pole" rather than a social democratic one. MS

[29] TRANSDNIESTER LEADER DISMISSES GOVERNMENT

is both "president" and "premier" of the unrecognized

Transdniester republic, dismissed the government on 21 July.

The dismissal follows the entering into force the same day of

the amended constitution, Flux reported on 22 July. In June,

the Transdniester Supreme Soviet approved the transformation

of the separatist region into a "presidential republic".

According to the decree issued by Smirnov, outgoing ministers

will receive their salary for another two months and will

receive other special privileges for a period of two months

to one year. MS

[30] HOMBACH HAS GOOD NEWS FOR BULGARIAN HOSTS

Southeast European Stability Pact coordinator, told

journalists in Sofia on 23 July that the G-8 leaders have

committed themselves at their summit in Okinawa, Japan, to

provide additional financing for projects in the Balkans, AP

and Reuters reported. Hombach said the G-8 and the EU will

provide some 50 percent of the $290 million of a "second

package" envisaged for the implementation of "fast track"

projects under the pact. The remainder of the funds will be

provided via credit facilities by various international

financing institutions. In March, the pact earmarked $2.4

billion for various projects in the region. Hombach ended a

five-day visit to Bulgaria by visiting the sites of projects

such as the planned second bridge over the River Danube

linking Vidin with the Romanian town of Calafat. MS

[C] END NOTE

[31] MIXED SIGNALS FOR CROATIA

The EU has recently been generous with its rewards for

Croatia's new government. That does not necessarily mean,

however, that the West is uncritical of its new model pupil

in the former Yugoslavia.

One of the great ironies of the rule of the late

President Franjo Tudjman's rule is that he managed to isolate

internationally the former Yugoslav republic that has

traditionally been most open to the outside world. For

centuries the long Dalmatian coast and its rugged hinterlands

in particular have been not only a magnet for tourists but

also a departure point for primarily younger men seeking to

emigrate to a better life. Almost every Croatian family has

some friend or relative working abroad, and many people are

quite knowledgeable about conditions in Germany, Australia,

or any of many other countries. In addition, many members of

the intelligentsia and middle class have studied or traveled

widely abroad.

It thus was particularly frustrating to many

internationally-minded Croats that the authoritarian Tudjman

proved unable or unwilling to understand what Croatia's

Western, democratic allies expected of Zagreb and why. The

new government that replaced Tudjman's was under no such

illusions and immediately made efforts to end the isolation

by pledging itself to more open practices and market reforms.

The new government moved especially energetically on the

international front because the chances of quick rewards were

far greater in that sphere than, for example, in introducing

social or economic reforms.

The first big bonus was in May, when Croatia was invited

to join NATO's Partnership for Peace program. NATO membership

had been former General Tudjman's dream, but the Atlantic

alliance would not have his authoritarian state in PfP, let

alone full membership. President Stipe Mesic and the Social

Democratic Prime Minister Ivica Racan thus succeeded with the

world's largest military alliance where the arch-conservative

Tudjman had failed.

In July, it was the EU's turn to reward the reform-

minded Croatian leadership. Mesic visited Brussels, from

which he was able to report on 18 July that the leaders of

all 15 EU member states will attend the EU's Balkan summit

slated for the fall in Zagreb. He added that he has received

backing for a number of key economic projects. They include

building an Adriatic-Ionian highway, reopening the Croatian

segment of the Danube to navigation, constructing a pipeline

to bring Caspian oil to the Adriatic, and launching work on a

gas pipeline linking Norway to the Adriatic.

The next day came another piece of good news. Chris

Patten, who is the EU's commissioner for foreign affairs,

announced that Croatia will become the second western Balkan

country (after Macedonia) to begin talks with Brussels over

the terms of a Stabilization and Association Agreement.

Patten stressed that "this proposal is a great step forward

in our efforts to stabilize the region. It is a tribute to

the courageous steps taken by the new Croatian government in

the short time in has been in office; the EU is determined to

support Croatia."

But perhaps not all is roses. On 17 July, Reuters

carried a report based on interviews with several unnamed but

obviously well-informed Western diplomats in Zagreb. These

individuals suggested that Western governments still remain

unhappy with the pace of Croatia's progress in several key

areas and expect improvements sooner rather than later.

While the areas in question appear diverse at first

glance, they do have a common denominator: they are all

domestic political mine fields. They include: cleaning up the

corruption from the Tudjman era, reforming the intelligence

services, restructuring state-run television and transforming

it into a public broadcaster, speeding up economic reforms so

as to attract foreign investors, and stepping up cooperation

with the Hague-based war crimes tribunal.

The problems for the government lie not so much in

offending remnants of the old order--they are in any event

discredited and got their marching orders from the voters

last winter--or in stirring up a right-wing backlash, since

most observers agree that the far-right is limited to a

small, if noisy, political fringe element.

The difficulties lie rather in the delicate balance

between the six governing parties. First, there are the

tensions between the two large parties--the Social Democrats

and the Social Liberals--in the main coalition. Second, there

are power games between that coalition (the Social Democrats,

in particular) and the four parties in the smaller coalition,

which can usually count on Mesic as an ally and spokesman. It

was thus relatively easy for the six parties to campaign

against Tudjman's Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) by

calling for the reform and depoliticization of the

intelligence services and state-run media, but it has proven

quite another thing for them to decide who will carry out

these tasks and to whom those persons will report.

The leading politicians will not have long to make up

their minds and work out deals on the future shape of things.

If the government does not take some bold steps to deal with

the most important outstanding issues within the next few

months, it may have to face some blunt words from Brussels

and Washington.

24-07-00

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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