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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 209, 99-10-26Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 3, No. 209, 26 October 1999CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] REPUBLICAN PARTY LEADING IN ARMENIAN LOCAL ELECTIONSAndranik Markarian, whose Republican Party of Armenia (HHK)forms the ruling Miasnutyun (Unity) coalition with the People's Party of Armenia, told RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau on 25 October that in the previous day's nationwide local elections in more than 900 communities, candidates affiliated with or endorsed by the HHK were elected mayor in at least 25 of more than 40 towns, cities, and administrative districts in Yerevan. No major incidents or protests by candidates were reported. Nationwide voter turnout was around 30 percent a few hours before polls closed, according to the Central Election Commission. The turnout in Yerevan was just 20 percent. In what Markarian termed "our main defeat," a well- funded Republican candidate failed to unseat the incumbent head of Yerevan's central district, Ararat Zurabian of the former ruling Armenian Pan-National Movement. Zurabian won by a comfortable margin. LF [02] AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN MINISTER, PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER RESIGNAta meeting of Azerbaijan's Security Council on 24 October, Foreign Minister Tofik Zulfugarov submitted his resignation to President Heidar Aliev, with whom he has disagreed on the optimum approach to resolving the Karabakh conflict, Turan reported. Eldar Namazov, who heads the presidential Secretariat, told Reuters on 25 October he has also informed Aliev of his desire to step down, but he declined to explain why. Aliev has not yet accepted either resignation. LF [03] KARABAKH ARMENIANS RELEASE TWO POWSThe government of theunrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic announced on 25 October that it will release two Azerbaijani prisoners of war as a gesture of goodwill, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. Armenia released three and Azerbaijan four POWs last month (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 20 September 1999). Armenia and Karabakh admit still holding seven and three Azerbaijani POWs, respectively. Azerbaijan, for its part, says it no longer has Armenian captives on its territory. LF [04] KAZAKHSTAN ANNOUNCES PRELIMINARY ELECTION RESULTS...CentralElectoral Commission chairwoman Zaghipa Balieva told journalists in Astana on 25 October that results are available in 44 of the 47 constituencies where a second round of voting for the lower chamber of the parliament took place the previous day, RFE/RL's bureau in the capital reported. She added that the results in some constituencies may be ruled invalid, according to ITAR-TASS. In almost all 44 constituencies, candidates from the pro-presidential Otan Party were elected. Exceptions were Marat Qabanbaev of former Premier Akezhan Kazhegeldin's Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan, Valeryan Zemlyanov of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan, and former presidential candidate Gani Qasymov. The last-named was backed by the Pokolenie movement, which defends the rights of the elderly. LF [05] ...WHILE OSCE SLAMS IRREGULARITIESIn an interim assessmentreleased on 25 October, the OSCE Monitoring Mission said the two rounds of voting fell short of OSCE commitments to free, fair, and accountable elections. The mission noted that shortcomings identified in its preliminary statement after the first round of voting on 10 October were not rectified in all precincts; in particular, it noted restrictions on allowing international observers to the vote tabulation process. Dos Koshim, chairman of the Kazakh Local Observers' Center, told RFE/RL's Almaty bureau that the 865 observers deployed by his organization had registered instances where local officials interfered in the vote count and tabulation. LF [06] KYRGYZ PREMIER HOLDS TALKS IN MOSCOWAmangeldy Muralievdiscussed bilateral military and military-technical cooperation with Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeev in Moscow on 25 October, Interfax reported. Those talks also focused on joint measures to eliminate terrorism and to prevent further incursions into Kyrgyzstan by ethnic Uzbek guerrillas. Colonel General Leonid Ivashev, who heads the Russian Defense Ministry's Department for International Ties, said that the two men agreed that there is a connection between the Muslim guerrilla operations in both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and the events in Chechnya. The guerrilla threat also figured in Muraliev's talks with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who assured him of Moscow's support in efforts to contain that threat. Muraliev is also scheduled to meet with Economics Minister Mikhail Kasyanov to discuss the payment of Kyrgyzstan's $150 million debt to Russia. LF [07] TURKMEN PRESIDENT DEFENDS GRADUAL DEMOCRATIZATIONMeeting on22 October with the heads of diplomatic missions in Ashgabat, Saparmurat Niyazov denied that he has imposed a dictatorial regime in Turkmenistan, RFE/RL's Turkmen Service reported. Niyazov stressed his success in preserving the country's national sovereignty, adding that Turkmenistan will proceed along the path of democratization and market reform, but at its own pace. He promised to unveil in December a new plan for gradual political and economic development over the next 11 years. LF [08] UZBEK LEADER PLEDGES TO COMPLY WITH HUMAN RIGHTS NORMSIslamKarimov told visiting OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities Max van der Stoel in Tashkent on 25 October that Uzbekistan "will implement the international community's human rights requirements," Interfax reported. Van der Stoel told journalists after the talks that Karimov had briefed him in detail on preparations for the 5 December parliamentary elections. He said that he also discussed with Karimov the threat posed to Uzbekistan by terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism. Interfax on 21 October quoted U.S. Ambassador David Johnson as calling for amending the election law to reduce the number of signatures a candidate must collect to register. Johnson added that the Uzbek leadership should meet minimum standards in allowing international observers to monitor the poll. LF [09] WORLD BANK CONCERNED OVER SLOW PACE OF UZBEK ECONOMIC REFORMIn an assessment released on 21 October, the World Bank'smission to Uzbekistan warned that failure to proceed resolutely with comprehensive economic restructuring, including privatization, could pose a threat to medium- and long-term macro-economic stability, Interfax reported four days later. Noting that economic decline in Uzbekistan during the years immediately following the collapse of the USSR was less than in other former Soviet republics, the report pointed to factors that could undermine economic stability. Those factors include a drop in exports since mid-1998, falling world market prices for the country's main exports of cotton and gold, an increase in foreign debt, and the growing divergence between official and black market exchange rates for the national currency. LF [B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[10] ALBANIAN PRIME MINISTER QUITSPandeli Majko handed hisresignation to President Rexhep Meidani in Tirana on 26 October. Information Minister Musa Ulcini said the previous night that Majko decided to quit because he recently lost a battle for the leadership of the Socialist Party to former Prime Minister Fatos Nano (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 October 1999). Observers note that it was unclear until late on 25 October that Majko would indeed give up his government post. PM [11] NANO PLEDGES CONTINUITY, PROGRESSNano told the BBC on 26October that he wants Deputy Prime Minister Ilir Meta to form a new government that includes many individuals who served in Majko's cabinet. Nano made little effort to conceal his pleasure at Majko's departure. The party leader did not rule out his own possible return to the prime minister's job at some future date but stressed that his main interest now is preparing the Socialists "for the 2001 elections." Nano said that the Meta government would continue the policy of drawing closer to Albania's Western allies, and he praised Meta as "young and charismatic." Observers note that these are precisely the characteristics for which Majko was known and that his departure is unlikely to lead to any significant change in domestic or foreign policy. The main reason for Majko's ouster appears to be the rivalry between him and Nano for political power. Majko's departure after only one year in office is likely to reinforce Albania's image abroad as an unstable country. PM [12] EU GIVES THUMBS DOWN TO ALBANIA, THUMBS UP MACEDONIAFabrizio Barbaso, who heads the EU's department for theWestern Balkans, said in Helsinki on 25 October that Albania needs more "institutional and political reform" before it can sign an association agreement with the EU. He added that "the situation there is still unstable." Barbaso praised Macedonia, however, and said that it will be ready to sign an association agreement in 2000. Macedonian Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski said that "we will not disappoint the EU," Reuters reported. Signing an association agreement with Brussels has been a major goal of the Georgievski government and of most Macedonian political parties. PM [13] DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE IN SERBIASome 15,000 peopledemonstrated in several Serbian cities and towns on 25 October to demand the resignation of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and free and fair elections. Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic told 10,000 protesters in Nis that he urged U.S. special envoy for the former Yugoslavia James Dobbins to end sanctions against Serbia as soon as proper elections are held, Beta reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 October 1999). The U.S. remains opposed to lifting sanctions as long as Milosevic remains in power. PM [14] SERBIAN-MONTENGRIN TALKS END IN STALEMATEA discussionbetween representatives of Montenegro's governing Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Vojislav Seselj's Radicals ended in Sveti Stefan on 25 October after only 90 minutes. Serbia's Tomislav Nikolic said that the talks should be transferred to the federal parliament in Belgrade. The Montenegrins did not publicly respond to that idea but have previously opposed such a move. They want direct talks between the two republics' respective governments. Filip Vujanovic, who is deputy chairman of the DPS, said after the talks that "we will continue on the course we have charted," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. PM [15] KFOR ARRESTS YUGOSLAV SOLDIERS...KFOR peacekeepers arrestedthree Yugoslav army soldiers just inside the border between Kosova and Montenegro after the three crossed into the province on 25 October. The NATO troops took the three to Peja until they can be "handed over to the Yugoslav authorities," AP reported. All Serbian forces were obliged to leave Kosova in June under an agreement between Belgrade and NATO. PM [16] ...TEMPORARILY CLOSES SCHOOLNorwegian peacekeepers on 25October closed the Serbian-held school in the village of Plemetina after the Serbs repeatedly refused to share the facility with ethnic Albanians. The school will be reopened once a separate school is available for the Albanian children. A KFOR spokesman said that would be "soon," Reuters reported. PM [17] SFOR ARRESTS BOSNIAN SERB FOR WAR CRIMESNATO peacekeepersarrested Damir Dosen near Prijedor on 25 October. The Hague- based war crimes tribunal has indicted him for crimes against humanity because of his activities at the Keraterm concentration camp, where he commanded guards in 1992. PM [18] SESELJ'S PARTY BANNED FROM BOSNIAN VOTERepresentatives ofthe OSCE, which organizes elections in Bosnia under the 1995 Dayton peace agreement, said in Sarajevo on 25 October that the Bosnian branch of Seselj's party cannot participate in local elections slated for 2000. The reason for the ban was the Radicals' failure to remove three ultra-nationalists from party offices, including former Republika Srpska President Nikola Poplasen. PM [19] THOUSANDS DEMONSTRATE IN SARAJEVOSome 30,000 workersmarched in central Sarajevo on 25 October "for greater social justice," RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. Federal Deputy Prime Minister Edhem Bicakcic declined an invitation from unions to speak to the workers, saying that mass protests are not the way to solve social problems. PM [20] PETRITSCH'S OFFICE SLAMS JELAVICA spokeswoman for theinternational community's Wolfgang Petritsch said in Sarajevo on 25 October that Ante Jelavic, who is the ethnic Croatian representative on the joint presidency, is wrong in alleging that the republic's Croats are victims of discrimination (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 October 1999). She stressed that the Croats have the same rights as the Serbs and Muslims to block legislation in the federal parliament, "Dnevni avaz" reported. PM [21] EUROPEAN CRITICISM OF CROATIAN ELECTIONSA spokeswoman forthe European Commission said in Zagreb on 25 October that the international community will soon send two formal protests to the Croatian government. One will object to the timing of parliamentary elections on 22 December and the other will criticize the electoral law, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 October 1999). Elsewhere, opposition representatives boycotted a meeting with the governing Croatian Democratic Community that was to discuss the electoral law. An opposition spokesman said there is no purpose in talking about the law until President Franjo Tudjman makes it clear that he will accept the results of the ballot. PM [22] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT REJECTS CALL FOR EARLY ELECTIONSEmilConstantinescu rejected a call by the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) for early elections, Mediafax reported on 25 October, citing the BBC. Constantinescu described PDSR leader Ion Iliescu's proposal as "a simple electoral maneuver" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 October 1999). On 22 October, the president had criticized the governing National Peasant Party Christian Democratic (PNTCD), saying they are not giving him enough support. He also said the opposition Greater Romania Party (PRM) is waging "a campaign aimed at intimidating" him. Constantinescu noted that "tiny groups" of PRM supporters follow him everywhere. He said one PRM group recently hurled insults at him during his visit to Cluj-Napoca. VG [23] ROMANIAN PRESIDENT SIGNS AGREEMENTS IN KUWAITConstantinescuwas in Kuwait on 25 October for a meeting with Emir Jabir al- Ahmad al-Jabir al-Sabah, Rompres reported. The reported purpose of the meeting is to increase bilateral economic relations between the two countries and to attract greater Kuwaiti investment in the Constanta free zone on the Black Sea. VG [24] BULGARIA, ALBANIA AGAINST BORDER CHANGESBulgarian PrimeMinister Ivan Kostov and his visiting Albanian counterpart, Pandeli Majko, said on 25 October that multiethnic states in the Balkans should remain intact and that borders should not be changed along ethnic lines. Both said they are committed to the stability and territorial integrity of their common neighbor, Macedonia. Kostov added that Bulgaria will support regional infrastructure projects in Albania and Macedonia, Reuters reported. The projects are aimed at connecting the Black and Adriatic seas by highway and railway links as well as constructing oil and gas pipelines that would run through Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Albania. VG [25] FINAL RESULTS OF BULGARIAN LOCAL ELECTIONSAccording tofinal results of the local election released on 25 October, the governing United Democratic Forces won 31.30 percent of the total vote and the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party 29.39 percent, according to a Bulgarian Radio report cited by the BBC. The ethnic Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedom and the Euro-Left took 11.06 percent and 7 percent, respectively. VG [C] END NOTE[26] THE PROBLEM IS MORE THAN JUST ONE MANby Patrick MooreThe ouster of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is the top priority of the Serbian opposition and of NATO's Balkan policy. While the removal of the man most responsible for the destruction of Tito's state and for four bloody wars will be a great step forward, it will hardly be the end of Serbia's problems or of other countries' Serbian problem. Once Milosevic is removed--however that may come about-- there remains, above, all, the matter of his henchmen. Some 300 prominent men and women from Serbia-Montenegro are banned from receiving EU visas, which suggests the approximate number of members of the elite closest to Milosevic. Particularly important are the four men whom the Hague-based war crimes tribunal indicted in May along with the Yugoslav president. The Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO), among others, is counting on peacefully undermining Milosevic by appealing to some members of his power structure to save their own skins and defect to the opposition. There was much speculation at the end of the summer that no less a person than Serbian President Milan Milutinovic--who is one of the four indicted war criminals--may have unsuccessfully tried to do just that. Meanwhile, any successful defections remain very cleverly concealed. And even if the fractious opposition of some 150 parties and 800 NGOs were to oust Milosevic along with the most die- hard of his lieutenants, there is no telling what it would put in their place. The opposition, with its squabbling egos, took weeks to agree on a common platform on the vital issue of elections--the first such agreement in 10 years. Party leaders still fight among themselves over matters such as who will march or speak at whose rally and who will speak before whom. Thus, there is little likelihood that the rise to power of the opposition will prove a panacea for Serbia's ills. The squabbling that beset the Slovak cabinet once former Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar was out of the way offers a possible example of what might come to pass in a post-Milosevic Serbia. And it should also be noted that the governing coalition's behavior has been such that Meciar was able to make political capital out of the cabinet's disarray and prepare to launch his come-back. In all likelihood, Serbia's problem has less to do with the presence of one man than with the nature of its political culture. One aspect is the tendency to rely on strong leaders. Even foreign observers fall prey to this approach when they bemoan the lack of "an alternative" (read: another strongman) to Milosevic. Democracy, however, grows from the bottom up. The real alternative to "caudillo" rule is likely to come from the opposition-run cities and towns and their mayors and other elected officials. It is there that Western countries have wisely begun to concentrate their hopes and attention, not on the well-known egos of Belgrade. Another issue in the political culture is the all- pervasiveness of nationalism. Many of his once fervent supporters have turned on Milosevic not because they have become good democrats, but because he failed to live up to his promises to create a Greater Serbia. He is responsible for a disaster for the Serbian people that is as huge as Adolf Hitler's for the Germans in terms of territorial losses and migrations of Biblical proportions. It is primarily because of this that many opposition politicians seek his ouster. It is difficult to say how much peace and progress in the Balkans one could hope for if disgruntled nationalists are in power in Serbia (not to mention the problems Bosnia and Kosova will have regardless of who governs in Belgrade). A third problem is the lack of civic consciousness, which is another term for political immaturity. Many among the ranks of the opposition and intellectuals provide good examples of this. In the course of the Milosevic years, many Western governments and NGOs have spent tidy sums supporting Serbian NGOs and the independent media. But when Milosevic launched his full-fledged campaign of genocide in Kosova this spring, the private media for the most part censored themselves or generally fell into line. It is true that one could not expect them to write editorials in praise of NATO air raids or the Kosova Liberation Army. But it is telling that barely three dozen individuals were willing to sign a document that, though repeatedly slamming NATO, dared to criticize the genocide, if only in one short passage. At a recent OSCE-sponsored conference in Montenegro, several leading figures from the Serbian private media showed a high degree of defensiveness when Westerners criticized them for their docility during the genocide. Some of the journalists showed touches of the paranoia and xenophobia that is characteristic of the regime and its propaganda. Knee-jerk mistrust of the major powers--the Americans in particular--has never been far beneath the surface in Serbia. Perhaps the best that will come of gatherings such as the OSCE one is what an observer called the beginnings of a "thinking process" on the part of the Serbian intellectuals, opposition politicians, and journalists regarding their roles and responsibilities. This could lead to what some observers have called a "cleansing" or "denazification" of public life. Similar reflection by those foreigners who would promote the democratization of Serbia might also be of value. Perhaps they should not expect too much too soon from a society imbued with authoritarianism and nationalism and where the average per capita income is $50 per month. 26-10-99 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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