RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 200, 99-10-13

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 200, 13 October 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] HUMAN RIGHTS WATCHDOG CALLS FOR INVESTIGATION INTO DEATHS IN

[02] U.S., RUSSIA PRAISE ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI TALKS

[03] WORLD BANK SETS CONDITIONS FOR LOAN TO AZERBAIJAN

[04] AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT ORDERS DEATH PENALTY FOR MILITARY

[05] ABKHAZIA ADOPTS FORMAL STATUTE ON INDEPENDENCE

[06] UN OBSERVERS TAKEN HOSTAGE IN WESTERN GEORGIA

[07] GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT DEPUTY CONCERNED OVER RUSSIAN ARMS

[08] PRELIMINARY KAZAKH ELECTION RETURNS ANNOUNCED

[09] MORE GOVERNMENT APPOINTMENTS IN KAZAKHSTAN

[10] NEW KAZAKH PREMIER OUTLINES PRIORITIES

[11] FOUR HOSTAGES RELEASED IN KYRGYZSTAN

[12] TAJIK OPPOSITION CANDIDATES CALL FOR BOYCOTT OF PRESIDENTIAL

[13] UZBEK PRESIDENT CALLS OFF PLANNED VISIT TO KYRGYZSTAN

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[14] BOSNIAN SERB PREMIER: KARADZIC MUST GO TO HAGUE...

[15] ...AS SHOULD MILOSEVIC

[16] BOSNIAN SERB LEADER DEFENDS TALKS WITH MILOSEVIC

[17] MONTENEGRIN PARTY AGREES TO TALKS WITH SERBIA

[18] EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT INVITES SERBIAN OPPOSITION

[19] OBRADOVIC CHIDES FELLOW POLITICIANS

[20] SERBIAN OPPOSITION APPEALS TO EU

[21] DATA MISSING IN DRASKOVIC ACCIDENT?

[22] NATO COMMANDER: NO DECISION ON KFOR FUTURE BEFORE SPRING

[23] EXPERTS DISCOVER MASS GRAVE AT RAHOVEC

[24] CROATIA WANTS MONTENEGRO PRESENT AT PREVLAKA TALKS

[25] SLOVENIA CONCERNED ABOUT HAIDER

[26] ALBANIA APPEALS TO MACEDONIA OVER BORDER ISSUES

[27] ROMANIANS SCANDALIZED BY DE-MYTHICIZED HISTORY TEXTBOOK

[28] MOLDOVAN PREMIER REVIEWS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

[29] BULGARIA BREAKS MONEY-LAUNDERING RING

[30] BULGARIAN OIL REFINERY SOLD TO LUKOIL

[C] END NOTE

[31] A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] HUMAN RIGHTS WATCHDOG CALLS FOR INVESTIGATION INTO DEATHS IN

The Austrian-based International Helsinki

Federation for Human Rights (IHF) sent an open letter on 11

October to President Robert Kocharian asking him to

investigate the deaths in custody of two young men serving

prison terms for robbery and assault and the death of a third

man shortly after his release from interrogation, Noyan Tapan

reported. The IHF said there is evidence that all three men

either were murdered or died as a result of beatings by

police officers. LF

[02] U.S., RUSSIA PRAISE ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI TALKS

President Al Gore on 12 October wrote to Armenian President

Kocharian commending the "important progress" made toward

resolving the Karabakh conflict, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau

reported. Gore expressed confidence that progress toward

resolving the conflict will open new opportunities for

Armenia's partnership and cooperation with neighboring

countries and the entire North Atlantic community, according

to Noyan Tapan. In Moscow, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman

Vladimir Rakhmanin on 12 October similarly noted that the

four meetings between two presidents have resulted in the

strengthening of the cease-fire, an exchange of prisoners,

and greater confidence between the two countries, Interfax

reported. Also on 12 October, the Armenian and Azerbaijan

foreign ministers met in Luxembourg to discuss a methodology

for ending the conflict and to try to define parameters for

resolving it, AFP reported. LF

[03] WORLD BANK SETS CONDITIONS FOR LOAN TO AZERBAIJAN

Bank's permanent representative in Baku, Tevfik Yaprak, told

Reuters on 12 October that Azerbaijan must demonstrate its

commitment to public-sector reform before the bank will

release a $200 million three-year loan intended to help

create an environment for private-sector development and

increase support for social sectors, such as pensions and

education. The bank will send a mission to Baku next month to

draft a list of measures the Azerbaijani government must

enact in order to qualify for that loan. Yaprak also noted

that Azerbaijan will begin to receive oil revenues next year.

LF

[04] AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT ORDERS DEATH PENALTY FOR MILITARY

Heidar Aliev has issued a decree on

amendments to the criminal code that allow for the imposition

of the death penalty in wartime for "particularly grave"

military crimes, according to Human Rights Committee of

Azerbaijan press release. Aliev also decreed the transfer

from the Interior Ministry to the Ministry of Justice of

investigation centers in Baku and Gjanja in which the accused

are held in solitary confinement, Turan reported. That

transfer is one of the conditions for admittance to full

membership in the Council of Europe. Azerbaijan abolished the

death penalty last year. LF

[05] ABKHAZIA ADOPTS FORMAL STATUTE ON INDEPENDENCE

parliament of the unrecognized Republic of Abkhazia on 12

October adopted a statue affirming the region's status as an

independent state and calling on the UN and OSCE to recognize

it as such, ITAR-TASS reported The statute noted that in the

3 October referendum, a majority of the voters registered as

resident in Abkhazia before the 1992-1993 war had approved

the 1994 constitution defining Abkhazia as an independent

sovereign state (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 October 1999).

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov on 12 October said that

the Abkhaz declaration does not contribute to resolving the

Abkhaz conflict, ITAR-TASS reported. Abkhaz parliament in

exile chairman Tamaz Nadareishvili termed it "a political

farce," according to Caucasus Press. LF

[06] UN OBSERVERS TAKEN HOSTAGE IN WESTERN GEORGIA

of the UN Observer Mission in western Georgia were seized by

unidentified armed men when their helicopter landed in the

Kodori gorge early on 13 October. David Tsanava, deputy

chairman of the Abkhaz parliament in exile, told Caucasus

Press that the abductors are demanding a ransom of $200,000

for the observers. He added that the abductors are those who

were responsible for a similar incident in July in which

members of the Abkhaz government in exile, including Tsanava,

were seized when their helicopter landed in Kodori gorge but

were released several hours later (see "RFE/RL Caucasus

Report," Vol. 2, No. 28, 15 July 1999). UN policy is not to

give in to such ransom demands, but the former head of the UN

Observer Mission in Georgia paid a $7,000 ransom for a

kidnapped observer in September 1997 (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"

25 September 1997). LF

[07] GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT DEPUTY CONCERNED OVER RUSSIAN ARMS

Revaz Adamia, who is chairman of the Georgian

parliament's Defense and Security Committee, told journalists

in Tbilisi on 12 October that Russia has "almost doubled" the

amount of heavy weaponry it may deploy in the North Caucasus

under the amended CFE Treaty, Interfax reported. Adamia

argued that such quantities of arms exceed what is required

"to fight several hundred terrorists." LF

[08] PRELIMINARY KAZAKH ELECTION RETURNS ANNOUNCED

the nine parties contending the 10 seats in the lower chamber

of the Kazakh parliament that are to be allocated under the

proportional system polled the 7 percent of the vote needed

to qualify for representation, Reuters reported on 12

October. Both Reuters and ITAR-TASS quoted unofficial results

according to which the pro-presidential Otan party polled

30.5 percent of the party-list vote, the Communist Party 17.8

percent, the Agrarian Party 12.6 percent, and the Civic Party

10.9 percent. ITAR-TASS also quoted Central Electoral

Commission secretary Yelena Kuleshova as saying that in 70

percent of all electoral districts no candidate received 50

percent of the votes cast. A runoff between the two

candidates who polled the largest number of votes will be

held in those constituencies on 24 October. LF

[09] MORE GOVERNMENT APPOINTMENTS IN KAZAKHSTAN

Foreign Minister Qasymzhomart Toqaev prime minister on 12

October, President Nursultan Nazarbaev told the parliament

that he has appointed Deputy Premier and Finance Minister

Aleksander Pavlov as first deputy premier, North Kazakhstan

Oblast Governor Danial Akhmetov as second deputy premier, and

the chairman of the Kazakh State Agency of Strategic Planning

and Reforms, Erzhan Otembaev, deputy premier. Qaraghandy

Oblast Governor Mazhit Esenbaev was named finance minister,

and Grigorii Marchenko was appointed chairman of the National

Bank, RFE/RL's Astana correspondent reported. LF

[10] NEW KAZAKH PREMIER OUTLINES PRIORITIES

houses of the Kazakh parliament on 12 October, Prime Minister

Toqaev pledged that his government will actively cooperate

with the parliament and will "work to improve the economic

situation and gradually reduce the budget deficit," Interfax

reported. He called on deputies to pass the amended 2000

budget in the second reading. Toqaev also said he believes

the government's personnel policy needs improving. He said he

opposes both the hasty introduction of private ownership of

land and the controversial plans to sell part of Kazakhstan's

stake in the Tengizchevroil joint venture. Consultations on

the latter issue must be held with Nazarbaev, he said. LF

[11] FOUR HOSTAGES RELEASED IN KYRGYZSTAN

Ministry on 13 October confirmed that four Kyrgyz policemen

taken hostage by guerrillas in southern Kyrgyzstan in late

August have been freed, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. It

also said that government forces took control late on 12

October of the village of Kodjo-Achkan, which served as the

guerrillas' base, without encountering serious resistance.

Addressing a 12 October session of the upper house of the

parliament, which endorsed his proposal to create a seventh

oblast in Kyrgyzstan, President Askar Akaev again said that

the guerrillas' primary objective is not "to defend Islam"

but to broaden the corridor for drug-trafficking from

Afghanistan to Europe via the CIS, according to Interfax. LF

[12] TAJIK OPPOSITION CANDIDATES CALL FOR BOYCOTT OF PRESIDENTIAL

Tajikistan's Central Electoral Commission has refused

to register Davlat Usmon, Sulton Kuvvaev, and Saifiddin

Turaev as candidates for the 6 November presidential poll on

the grounds that they failed to provide the required 145,000

signatures in their support, although the deadline for doing

so was twice extended, Interfax reported on 12 October. At a

news conference in Dushanbe the same day the three men called

on voters and the international community to boycott the poll

and not to recognize its outcome as valid. OSCE

representative Oscar Lennar told journalists in Dushanbe that

he hopes it will prove possible to extend the deadline for

gathering signatures, but parliamentary deputy chairman

Kozidavlat Koimdodov rejected that option as violating the

election law, according to an RFE/RL correspondent in the

Tajik capital. LF

[13] UZBEK PRESIDENT CALLS OFF PLANNED VISIT TO KYRGYZSTAN

planned visit to Kyrgyzstan by Uzbek President Islam Karimov

has been postponed indefinitely, Interfax reported on 12

October, citing the Kyrgyz presidential administration. No

reason for the postponement was given. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[14] BOSNIAN SERB PREMIER: KARADZIC MUST GO TO HAGUE...

caretaker Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said that former

Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and other indicted war

criminals must go to the Hague-based war crimes tribunal

"whether they like it or not." Dodik stressed that a few

individuals must not be allowed to spoil the Republika

Srpska's chances of receiving international aid, investments,

and support, the Frankfurt-based Serbian daily "Vesti"

reported on 13 October. He added that it is necessary to

bring to justice people who killed others simply because the

victims were of a different ethnic group. Dodik argued that

such killers could easily murder persons of their own

nationality as well. Observers note that this is the sharpest

public statement yet by a moderate Bosnian Serb leader

against indicted war criminals. Dodik does not appear to have

mentioned General Ratko Mladic, however. Mladic is one of the

tribunal's most wanted war criminals but enjoys considerable

popularity among Serbs as a defender of his people. PM

[15] ...AS SHOULD MILOSEVIC

Slobodan Milosevic and Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Vojislav

Seselj should go to The Hague, "Vesti" reported on 13

October. The Bosnian Serb leader suggested that this would be

the best way for the two men "to prolong their biological

lives." Dodik was presumably alluding to the political

killings that are no rarity in modern-day Serbia. He added

that he supports calls by representatives of the

international community for a ban on the Bosnian branch of

Seselj's Serbian Radical Party. PM

[16] BOSNIAN SERB LEADER DEFENDS TALKS WITH MILOSEVIC

Radisic, who is the Serbian representative on the Bosnian

joint presidency, said that his recent talks in Belgrade with

Milosevic were in the interests of the Bosnian Serbs (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 12 October 1999). He added that he will

speak with anyone "if it is in the interests of the Serbian

people and the Republika Srpska," "Vesti" reported on 12

October. He chided his critics--although he did not name

them, he meant Dodik and his government--for reacting

"nervously" to his Belgrade meeting. Radisic said they should

instead think about how they could better promote relations

between Yugoslavia and the Republika Srpska. PM

[17] MONTENEGRIN PARTY AGREES TO TALKS WITH SERBIA

Vukovic, who is a top official of Montenegro's Democratic

Party of Socialists (DPS), said in Podgorica on 13 October

that his party has accepted an offer by Milosevic's Socialist

Party of Serbia (SPS) to discuss the future of relations

between the two republics (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 12

October 1999). Vukovic made it clear that the DPS will stick

to the positions that the Montenegrin government set down in

August in its statement on links with Serbia. He added that

"Serbia must [become] a civic, open, and democratic state.

Serbia's [policies have] made it the most isolated country in

the world," Reuters reported. PM

[18] EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT INVITES SERBIAN OPPOSITION

Fontaine, who is president of the European Parliament, said

in Brussels on 12 October that she regrets that many leaders

of the Serbian opposition did not attend recent talks with EU

foreign ministers in Luxembourg (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12

October 1999). She said that she plans to invite the

opposition leaders to discuss prospects for democracy in

Serbia with her and her colleagues. Bernard Kouchner, who

heads the UN mission in Kosova, said that unnamed outside

parties must have a "right to intervene" in potential

conflict situations before bloodshed begins, the "Frankfurter

Allgemeine Zeitung" reported. PM

[19] OBRADOVIC CHIDES FELLOW POLITICIANS

leader Vuk Obradovic, who attended the Luxembourg meeting,

said in Belgrade on 12 October that those opposition leaders

who boycotted the session made a mistake. He denied that the

EU would have insisted that they sign a declaration calling

for Milosevic's extradition to The Hague, AP reported.

Instead, Obradovic continued, the opposition missed a

valuable opportunity to make progress in matters such as

persuading the EU to lift its oil embargo against Serbia. PM

[20] SERBIAN OPPOSITION APPEALS TO EU

parties that did not go to Luxembourg signed a five-point

declaration addressed to the EU, "Vesti" reported on 13

October. The parties called for holding elections in Serbia

within three months under reformed election laws. The

opposition leaders stressed the dismal state of the Serbian

economy and appealed for the EU to press for the admission of

Yugoslavia to the Balkan Stability Pact. The opposition

representatives added that following the replacement of the

current regime, the EU should make a gift of $1 billion to

Serbia to help it deal with unspecified urgent problems. PM

[21] DATA MISSING IN DRASKOVIC ACCIDENT?

Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement said in Belgrade on 12

October that key data is missing regarding the owner of the

truck that caused the recent traffic accident involving

Draskovic. The spokesman charged that the data "has been

erased" from a police computer, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported (see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 12 October 1999). PM

[22] NATO COMMANDER: NO DECISION ON KFOR FUTURE BEFORE SPRING

committee, said in Copenhagen on 12 October that it would be

"premature" to speculate about any reduction in the size of

KFOR for at least "another five or six months." Current

policy calls for keeping KFOR at a strength of 43,000. PM

[23] EXPERTS DISCOVER MASS GRAVE AT RAHOVEC

experts have found a mass grave near Rahovec that may be one

of the oldest ones from the recent conflict, AP reported.

Peter Koehler, who heads the team, said that the grave may

contain up to 90 bodies and date from the July 1998 Serbian

attack on the mainly ethnic Albanian town (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 21 July 1998). PM

[24] CROATIA WANTS MONTENEGRO PRESENT AT PREVLAKA TALKS

Croatian government wrote to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan

on 12 October that talks between Belgrade and Zagreb on the

future of the Prevlaka peninsula have not resumed because

Serbia continues to "make unacceptable territorial demands"

on Croatia. The government added that it does not consider

any talks with Belgrade to be "legitimate" without the

participation of Montenegrin delegates. This is the first

time that Croatia has formally raised the issue of

Montenegrin participation in the negotiations over the UN-

controlled peninsula, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported.

Prevlaka is Croatian territory but offers the only access to

the Montenegrin port of Kotor, which is Yugoslavia's only

deep-water naval base. PM

[25] SLOVENIA CONCERNED ABOUT HAIDER

Franko Juri said in Ljubljana on 12 October that recent

statements by Austrian right-wing leader Joerg Haider

regarding Slovenia and Slovenian-Austrian relations amount to

"blackmail." Haider has called on Slovenia to close its Krsko

nuclear plant, return property confiscated after World War II

to German-speakers, and improve the status of the tiny

German-speaking minority. Earlier, President Milan Kucan said

that the success of Haider's Freedom Party in the 3 October

elections bodes ill for Slovenian-Austrian relations. PM

[26] ALBANIA APPEALS TO MACEDONIA OVER BORDER ISSUES

Ministry handed over a statement to the Macedonian ambassador

on 12 October calling on the authorities to prevent further

fatal incidents along their border. The statement said that

Macedonian border guards killed three Albanian shepherds over

four months without giving the men a chance to explain why

they had strayed over the frontier. Tirana also urged Skopje

to liberalize visa requirements, open another border

crossing, and allow seasonal agricultural workers to work in

Macedonia. PM

[27] ROMANIANS SCANDALIZED BY DE-MYTHICIZED HISTORY TEXTBOOK

Education Commissions of the two chambers of the parliament

are meeting on 13 October to discuss demands for the

withdrawal of a history textbook that the Ministry of

Education has approved for the 12th grade. The Romanian

Academy has protested against the use of the textbook, as has

the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania, the

Greater Romania Party, and the Party of Romanian National

Unity. The editor in chief of the daily "Adevarul" claims

that the textbook is the result of Hungarian machinations

undertaken in league with the U.S.-sponsored Project on

Ethnic Relations. The textbook (whose use is optional)

questions some of the major Romanian historical myths (the

Dacian-Roman origins of the Romanian nation as well as the

roles of Vlad the Impaler, Michael the Brave, and others)

that were propagated under the Ceausescu regime to promote

nationalism. MS

[28] MOLDOVAN PREMIER REVIEWS ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE

Ion Sturza on 12 October said on national television that the

decline in GDP this year will "not exceed 2-3 percent in real

terms" compared with 1998. Sturza said that for the first

time since Moldova became independent, budget revenues in

January-September have exceeded planned revenues and were 36

percent higher than in 1998. He said Moldova's hard-currency

reserves amount to $230 million, "which is sufficient to

cover strategic imports for four-and-a-half months." Sturza

said that the government has paid outstanding foreign debt

totaling $235 million and that accumulated debt since January

1999 stands at only $35 million, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau

reported. In response to a question by Infotag, Sturza said

he expects inflation over the next 12 months not to exceed 15

percent. MS

[29] BULGARIA BREAKS MONEY-LAUNDERING RING

Muravei Radev on 12 October signed orders terminating the

activities of several companies involved in a money-

laundering ring uncovered last week, BTA reported. On 8

October, Bulgarian officials said they had smashed a money-

laundering ring that had siphoned more then $30 million

through nine local banks over six months, Reuters reported.

The Interior Ministry said that the money-laundering ring

operated through ghost firms set up without proper

registration and performing faked import operations. Nineteen

people were arrested, five of whom have been charged with

illegal money transfer. If convicted, they face sentences of

between one and 10 years in prison. Radev said on 12 October

that more arrests can be expected. MS

[30] BULGARIAN OIL REFINERY SOLD TO LUKOIL

October approved the sale of a 58 percent stake in Neftochim,

Bulgaria's largest oil refinery, to the Russian LUKoil

concern, BTA reported. The state will keep a "golden share"

in Neftochim, which will give it veto power on decisions on

suspending or substantially decreasing oil processing or fuel

production, on granting access to the company's port

facilities or pipelines, and on consolidations, mergers, or

the liquidation of the company. LUKoil will pay $101 million

for the stake and invest $408 million between 2000 and 2005.

It will also take over Neftochim's $30.5 million debt to the

state budget and its $3.6 million debt to the national

insurance fund. MS

[C] END NOTE

[31] A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE

After several weeks of discussions, leaders of the

Solidarity Electoral Action (AWS) and the Freedom Union (UW)

agreed on 10 October on a new cabinet lineup and coalition

rules. There was no major shakeup of Jerzy Buzek's cabinet,

as some Polish political commentators had predicted. Those

commentators had argued that the current government needs a

radical reshuffle to reverse the dramatic decline in its

popularity.

The November 1997 marriage of the liberal UW with the

AWS, which brings together right-wing pro-Catholic parties

advocating socially oriented policies, was a difficult one

from the outset. Recent talks between the coalition partners

had two major goals. First, the coalition policy of

appointments required clarification: the UW had repeatedly

complained that the AWS--a group with much stronger

parliamentary support--gives key cabinet posts to party

loyalists rather than to competent professionals. Second, the

two sides sought agreement on a cabinet reshuffle that would

breathe new life into that body and increase the public's

confidence in it.

The authors of the 10 October compromise agreement seem

rather uncertain about the outcome of their negotiations.

Premier Jerzy Buzek of the AWS said "the most important

problems have been solved" but admitted that he is worried by

the "lack of cohesion of the government." Deputy Premier and

Finance Minister Leszek Balcerowicz of the UW commented that

his party had the choice of leaving the coalition, which

would mean the destabilization of the situation in the

country, or continuing cooperation with the AWS and at the

same time remaining uncertain if the coalition partner will

observe the signed agreement. "We opted for uncertainty,"

Balcerowicz said.

Some UW activists were less reserved in assessing the

compromise agreement. "The mountain gave birth to a mouse,"

Donald Tusk commented. And UW spokesman Andrzej Potocki said

the compromise on continuing the current coalition is

"slightly rotten."

The coalition agreed to sack Environmental Minister Jan

Szyszko and Deputy Economy Minister Jan Szlazak, both from

the AWS. The UW will not lose any of its ministers although

the AWS pressed for the ouster of Defense Minister Janusz

Onyszkiewicz and Justice Minister Hanna Suchocka. During the

past several weeks, Interior Minister Janusz Tomaszewski

(AWS) and Stanislaw Alot, head of the Social Security Agency,

have also been dismissed: this means there have been only

four major changes in the government since the coalition

started to discuss the "restructuring" of Buzek's cabinet.

Moreover, there have been no structural changes. The UW

blocked the AWS proposals to create a ministry for regional

development and housing and to merge the European Integration

Committee with the Foreign Ministry.

The coalition partners also agreed that their

parliamentary deputies will back legislation proposed by the

government (a rule often broken by AWS lawmakers) and that

their ministries will not publicly criticize government

policies. These provisions are a strong indication of the

problems within the uneasy alliance of the UW and the AWS,

which won the 1997 elections on a ticket promising

considerable relief from the market-oriented reforms

implemented earlier in Poland.

However, the task of regaining the popularity that both

the AWS and the UW enjoyed in 1997 would apparently involve

more than simply reshaping the cabinet. September polls

showed that almost 70 percent of respondents believe that

Poland has taken a "wrong turn," while Buzek's cabinet has

only 16 percent support. More than 30 percent said they favor

early parliamentary elections.

Most commentators believe that the plunge in the

popularity of the AWS-UW cabinet is the direct result of its

bungled performance in implementing the four major reforms--

of administration, health care, pensions, and education--

aimed at facilitating Poland's accession to the EU by 2003.

That viewpoint may be correct, but in the long run Poles have

more significant reasons for complaining.

Foreign observers frequently forget the huge social

costs Poles have had to pay for their country's widely

acclaimed role as initiator and champion of market-oriented

reforms in East and Central Europe. According to the 9

October "Polityka," 5.5 million Poles live in poverty (2

million of them in "extreme poverty"). Some 12.5 million

people in Poland live in "subjective poverty" (they believe

that their pride is damaged by their living standards), and

some 16.5 million people live below or at Poland's

subsistence minimum.

Unemployment is another major problem: more than 2

million Poles have no jobs (12 percent of the country's

workforce). Some 70 percent of them have already ceased to

obtain unemployment benefits (which total up to 384 zlotys

[$95] a month). And 62 percent of Poles have completed only

an eight-grade school, making it extremely different for them

to find new jobs under Poland's changed economic

circumstances.

These figures are alarming, and it is no wonder that the

opposition Democratic Left Alliance and the Peasant Party are

now pushing for early parliamentary elections, hoping to

capitalize on the AWS-UW's current unpopularity and the

public's growing disappointment with the economic situation.

Radical farmers' leader Andrzej Lepper calls for a change of

not only the government but the entire economic system and is

threatening a "general blockade of the country" in November

unless the parliament is dissolved and new elections held.

Thus, it appears that the real test for Jerzy Buzek's

cabinet (not to mention Poland's drive for EU membership) has

not yet begun.

13-10-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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