RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 197, 99-10-08

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 197, 8 October 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER RESIGNS

[02] AZERBAIJANI POLICE, PICKETERS CLASH IN BAKU

[03] FORMER ARMENIAN PRESIDENT SEES 'NO PROGRESS' ON KARABAKH

[04] PREPARATIONS CONTINUE FOR ELECTION OF NEW ARMENIAN

[05] GEORGIA REFUSES TO CONDONE DEPLOYMENT OF RUSSIAN BORDER

[06] ADJARA RELEASES PRISONERS

[07] MORE KAZAKH ELECTION HARASSMENT REPORTED

[08] GUERRILLAS CONTACT KYRGYZ LEADERSHIP

[09] OPPOSITION CANDIDATES TO BOYCOTT TAJIK PRESIDENTIAL POLL

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[10] SERBIAN OPPOSITION AGREES ON EARLY ELECTION TERMS

[11] PROTESTS CONTINUE IN SERBIA

[12] SERBIAN REGIME DENIES ROLE IN DRASKOVIC ACCIDENT

[13] OFFICIAL'S DEFAMATION CASE AGAINST SERBIAN OPPOSITION

[14] ETHNIC ALBANIANS DEMAND ACCESS TO MITROVICA MINES

[15] REINHARDT SAYS HE HAS NO IMMEDIATE SOLUTION FOR MITROVICA

[16] KFOR ARRESTS SUSPECTED WAR CRIMINAL

[17] WORLD BANK APPROVES $60 MILLION FOR KOSOVA RECONSTRUCTION

[18] U.K. CALLS FOR CRACKDOWN ON KOSOVA MAFIAS

[19] ALBANIAN GOVERNMENT SETS UP ANTI-CORRUPTION COMMISSION

[20] OSCE CALLS FOR INVESTIGATION OF ATTACK ON MUSLIM IN

[21] CROATIAN SERBS SEEK POLITICAL GUARANTEES

[22] ROMANIAN DEPUTY PREMIER SAYS NO DECISION TAKEN ON ARAD

[23] POLL CONFIRMS ROMANIAN OPPOSITION LEADS THE FIELD

[24] MOLDOVA, RUSSIA AGREE ON BARTER PAYMENT FOR GAS DELIVERIES

[25] BULGARIAN MAYORAL CANDIDATE BADLY BEATEN

[C] END NOTE

[26] TEN YEARS ON: ECONOMIC VISION STILL NOT A REALITY

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER RESIGNS

who served as foreign policy adviser to successive

Azerbaijani presidents, has tendered his resignation to

Heidar Aliev for reasons "connected with his age and

deteriorating health," Turan reported on 8 October. In recent

months Guluzade has repeatedly called for a NATO, U.S. or

Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan to counter Russian-

Armenian military cooperation. LF

[02] AZERBAIJANI POLICE, PICKETERS CLASH IN BAKU

opposition Azerbaijan Popular Front Party and Musavat Party

were forcibly dispersed by police on 7 October when they

tried to picket the Russian Embassy, Turan reported. The

picketers were protesting the 1 October Russian missile

attack on a village in northern Azerbaijan, discrimination

against ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia, and the Karabakh

policy of the OSCE Minsk Group, of which Russia is one of the

three co-chairs. LF

[03] FORMER ARMENIAN PRESIDENT SEES 'NO PROGRESS' ON KARABAKH

a rare public appearance in Yerevan on 7 October, Levon Ter-

Petrossian told journalists he perceives no progress toward a

solution of the Karabakh conflict, despite the direct talks

over the past three months between his successor, Robert

Kocharian, and Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev, RFE/RL's

Yerevan bureau reported. Ter-Petrossian said he does not

currently follow domestic political developments in Armenia

and currently has no plans to return to politics. He said

that the present instability in the North Caucasus

constitutes a potential threat to Armenia, just as the

Chechen war of 1994-1996 did. LF

[04] PREPARATIONS CONTINUE FOR ELECTION OF NEW ARMENIAN

Dioceses of the Armenian Apostolic Church

worldwide have elected 451 delegates to participate in the

26-31 October National Ecclesiastical Assembly that will

elect a new Armenian Catholicos, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau

reported on 7 October. The Church's 47 bishops, all of whom

have the right to be elected catholicos, are ex officio

delegates. In an interview with Noyan Tapan on 7 October,

interim Catholicos Nerses Pozapalian confirmed that two

senior Armenian government officials, whom he declined to

identify, have informed Church officials of their preferred

candidate (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 September 1999).

Archbishop Mesrop Mustafian, who is patriarch of Istanbul,

told a U.S. radio station on 3 October that President

Kocharian and Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian have informed

archbishops that they would like to see Garegin Nersisian,

archbishop of the Ararat Diocese (which includes Yerevan),

elected catholicos. They added, however, that the Armenian

government will not interfere in the election process. LF

[05] GEORGIA REFUSES TO CONDONE DEPLOYMENT OF RUSSIAN BORDER

The commander of Georgia's Border

Guards, Lieutenant General Valerii Chkheidze, said on 7

October that Tbilisi has categorically rejected Moscow's

proposal to station Russian border guards in the Georgian

village of Shatili, close to Georgia's frontier with

Chechnya, Caucasus Press reported. Chkheidze said if it did

so, it would run the risk of Chechen attacks on Georgian

territory. He again denied that arms are being transported to

Chechnya via Georgia. Georgian Minister of State Vazha

Lortkipanidze, for his part, told Russian Television that

there is no need for additional Russian border guards on that

section of Georgia's border as there are enough Georgian

border troops deployed there. Lortkipanidze added that

Tbilisi would be grateful for Russian help in providing those

Georgian border guards with additional equipment. LF

[06] ADJARA RELEASES PRISONERS

Autonomous Republic told journalists in Tbilisi on 7 October

that the reason for the Adjar authorities' delay in releasing

28 prisoners whom Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze

amnestied on 1 October was that they have not received the

relevant documentation from Tbilisi, Caucasus Press reported.

He added that 27 prisoners have now been discharged, while no

documentation has been received on the eligibility for

amnesty of the 28th, who is serving a sentence for the

attempted assassination of Adjar Supreme Council chairman

Aslan Abashidze. The amnesty does not extend to persons

sentenced for terrorism. The Georgian Prosecutor-General's

Office had threatened legal proceedings against Adjar prison

directors if the men were not released (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 7 October 1999). The Adjar authorities have also

released two Georgian Defense Ministry officials detained

last month for possession of drugs, "Meridian" reported on 8

October (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 29 September 1999). LF

[07] MORE KAZAKH ELECTION HARASSMENT REPORTED

who is deputy chairman of the Republican People's Party of

Kazakhstan, told RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty on 8 October

that tax police raided the office of the party's executive

committee chairman Ghaziz Aldamzharov on 6- 7 October without

a search warrant. As a registered candidate for the 10

October election to the lower house of parliament,

Aldamzharov technically enjoys immunity under the election

law. LF

[08] GUERRILLAS CONTACT KYRGYZ LEADERSHIP

Ministry official Talant Razzakov said in Bishkek on 7

October that one of the leaders of the ethnic Uzbek

guerrillas holding 13 hostages in southern Kyrgyzstan has

sent a missive to the Kyrgyz military leadership, RFE/RL's

bureau in the Kyrgyz capital reported. Razzakov did not

disclose the contents of that document but said the author is

believed to be Juma Namangani, an Uzbek citizen who is wanted

by the Uzbek authorities on suspicion of masterminding

terrorist attacks in that country in 1997. ITAR-TASS on 7

October reported that no large-scale hostilities between the

guerrillas and government troops took place over the previous

24 hours. It quoted Kyrgyz official sources as denying media

reports that the Kyrgyz troops have opened a second front

against the guerrillas near the Uzbek exclave of Sokh. LF

[09] OPPOSITION CANDIDATES TO BOYCOTT TAJIK PRESIDENTIAL POLL

October that they will boycott the 6 November presidential

election to protest restrictions and harassment by the

government, which, they said, prevented them collecting the

required 145,000 signatures for registration, RFE/RL's Tajik

Service reported. The three candidates are Economics and

Foreign Economic Relations Minister Davlat Usmon (Islamic

Renaissance Party), Sulton Kuvvatov (Democratic Party/Tehran

Platform), and Saiffidin Turaev (Justice Party). Turaev told

RFE/RL that the three will hold talks with the Tajik

parliament and representatives of international organizations

in the hope of reaching a "political solution" that would

allow them to contest the poll. LF

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[10] SERBIAN OPPOSITION AGREES ON EARLY ELECTION TERMS

Belgrade on 7 October on conditions for early elections. They

will finalize their decisions as early as 14 October and send

their conditions to the government for its agreement. The

demands include a revision of the media and election laws.

The opposition wants a proportional voting system, revised

voting lists, and the presence of foreign and domestic poll

watchers. The opposition agreed not to form a coalition with

any of the parties currently in the government, an aide to

the Serbian Renewal Movement's leader Vuk Draskovic noted. A

Democratic Party spokesman called the agreement the "best

contribution to the fight against [Yugoslav President

Slobodan] Milosevic's regime," Reuters reported. The EU has

recently placed considerable pressure on the opposition to

unite and oust Milosevic. EU foreign ministers have invited

32 opposition leaders to a meeting in Luxembourg on 11

October, the Frankfurt-based Serbian daily "Vesti" reported

on 7 October. PM

[11] PROTESTS CONTINUE IN SERBIA

out in 15 municipalities on 7 October to demand Milosevic's

resignation. The demonstrations passed without incident but

were far smaller than the organizers in the opposition

Alliance for Change had hoped. The opposition nonetheless

intends to continue the daily protests, RFE/RL's South Slavic

Service reported on 8 October. PM

[12] SERBIAN REGIME DENIES ROLE IN DRASKOVIC ACCIDENT

Dacic, who is a spokesman for Milosevic's Socialist Party of

Serbia (SPS), said in Belgrade on 7 October that the recent

mysterious traffic accident involving Draskovic is a "police

matter" without any political significance (see "RFE/RL

Newsline," 7 October 1999). Dacic told reporters that they

should direct questions about any "assassination attempt on

Vuk to those who had a motive to carry one out, and that is

not the Socialist Party." AP reported that "the accident has

prompted a furious Draskovic to radicalize his so far

relatively moderate stance toward Milosevic's regime and

pledge to crush it." PM

[13] OFFICIAL'S DEFAMATION CASE AGAINST SERBIAN OPPOSITION

Belgrade Judge Sladjana Bojovic has postponed

until 23 November a defamation case against 11 opposition

leaders to "give them more time to prepare their defense." An

opposition lawyer told Reuters on 7 October that he expects

the case to be dismissed. Two days earlier, Serbian Deputy

Premier Milovan Bojic filed suit against 11 leaders of the

Alliance for Change (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 6 October 1999).

Bojic complained that he had been ridiculed at a mock trial

held at a Belgrade demonstration. PM

[14] ETHNIC ALBANIANS DEMAND ACCESS TO MITROVICA MINES

ethnic Albanian miners took part in a protest at the Stari

Trg precious metals mine near Mitrovica on 7 October, AP

reported. They want to return to their jobs in the mine,

which KFOR took over in June. An unspecified number of Serbs

continue to work there to keep equipment functioning. Xhafer

Nuli, president of the Independent Miners' Union, told the

protesters: "We want to live from our work and from our sweat

and by our own wages, we don't want to live from humanitarian

aid. " Another miner said: "I gave more than 20 years of my

life in this mine and for it, so we are ready even to die for

our mine. We have to feed our families." Meanwhile, 1,500

ethnic Albanians protested outside the UN offices in

Mitrovica, demanding access to schools and the hospital in

the northern part of the city, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service

reported. FS

[15] REINHARDT SAYS HE HAS NO IMMEDIATE SOLUTION FOR MITROVICA

think it would be very arrogant...to come up and offer a

solution [to the conflict between ethnic Serbs and Albanians

over Mitrovica].... I cannot offer a solution right now,

which will work in the future." Reinhardt takes over command

of KFOR from General Sir Mike Jackson on 8 October, marking a

change of the KFOR command from NATO's Allied Rapid Reaction

Corps to Allied Land Forces Central Europe. Reinhardt

stressed that "I'm here to help in Kosova...to rebuild for a

better future, and this is the mission I have." FS

[16] KFOR ARRESTS SUSPECTED WAR CRIMINAL

that Dutch and German KFOR troops arrested a war crimes

suspect in Prizren on 7 October. The spokesman identified

neither the man nor his nationality. The International

Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia has indicted the

suspect on charges of murder and other atrocities committed

in the Rahovec area between April and June. FS

[17] WORLD BANK APPROVES $60 MILLION FOR KOSOVA RECONSTRUCTION

the bank's executive board has approved $60 million over the

next 18 months to support reconstruction and economic

recovery in Kosova. The official added that the bank will

coordinate international aid with the European Commission and

other donors, provide economic policy advice to the UN

mission and local authorities, and assist with project design

in the reconstruction effort. He underlined that the World

Bank itself will provide direct limited financial aid on "a

highly selective basis." FS

[18] U.K. CALLS FOR CRACKDOWN ON KOSOVA MAFIAS

spokesman said in London on 7 October that failure to deal

with organized crime in Kosova could undermine efforts aimed

at promoting democracy and stability. He added that Foreign

Secretary Robin Cook will present concrete proposals in

Luxembourg aimed at combating mafia-like structures in the

province. PM

[19] ALBANIAN GOVERNMENT SETS UP ANTI-CORRUPTION COMMISSION

government on 7 October set up a commission charged with

fighting corruption "at all government levels." It issued a

statement saying that the commission will be headed by Deputy

Prime Minister and Minister of Government Coordination Ilir

Meta and include the ministers of finance, public order,

justice, and economy, dpa reported. The commission will

receive foreign-expert advice from the Friends of Albania, a

group of foreign donors and diplomats sponsored by the OSCE.

The OSCE office in Tirana issued a statement saying that the

commission is "indispensable for Albania to participate fully

in and benefit from the evolving aspects of the Stability

Pact in Southeast Europe." FS

[20] OSCE CALLS FOR INVESTIGATION OF ATTACK ON MUSLIM IN

A spokesman for the OSCE said in Sarajevo on 7

October that his organization demands a "swift and credible

investigation" by the Srebrenica authorities and Republika

Srpska police into the stabbing of a Muslim official in the

Srebrenica municipal building the previous day, Reuters

reported. Two masked men beat and stabbed Munib Hasanovic,

who works for the government of the formerly mainly Muslim

town, which fell to Serbian forces in July 1995. A

spokeswoman for the international community's Wolfgang

Petritsch said that Hasanovic recently received death threats

but there is no "evidence that this has a political

background," AP reported. Some Muslim officials work three

days a week in Srebrenica but continue to live with their

families on Muslim-controlled territory. PM

[21] CROATIAN SERBS SEEK POLITICAL GUARANTEES

who is a political leader of Croatia's small Serbian

minority, said in Zagreb on 7 October that representatives of

the Serbian community have written to top government and

opposition officials asking them to clarify their respective

stands on the Serbs' political rights. Pupovac stressed that

the Serbs will not accept any reduction in the rights that

current legislation guarantees them, RFE/RL's South Slavic

Service reported. PM

[22] ROMANIAN DEPUTY PREMIER SAYS NO DECISION TAKEN ON ARAD

Deputy Premier Valeriu Stoica told

journalists on 7 October that there is "futile and

tendentious agitation" over the monument honoring the 13

Hungarian generals executed in 1849. Stoica said the

government's decision to set up a "park of historical

reconciliation" in Arad does not specify which monuments are

to be displayed there. Whether the monument honoring the

generals is included, he said, depends "on the

recommendations that will be made by architects and artists."

MS

[23] POLL CONFIRMS ROMANIAN OPPOSITION LEADS THE FIELD

poll conducted by Metromedia Transilvania confirms that the

PDSR is well ahead in party preferences, RFE/RL's Bucharest

bureau reported on 7 October. The PDSR received 37 percent

backing. That is more than the combined support for all

members of the ruling coalition: Democratic Convention of

Romania (22 percent), the Democratic Party (8 percent) and

the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (5 percent).

The opposition Alliance for Romania (APR) received 16 percent

and the Greater Romania Party (PRM) 7 percent. PDSR chairman

Ion Iliescu is leading the field among presidential

candidates (34 percent), followed by APR chairman Teodor

Melescanu (21 percent), incumbent President Emil

Constantinescu (17 percent), PRM leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor

(7 percent), and former Premier Theodor Stolojan and

Democratic Party leader Petre Roman (5 percent each). MS

[24] MOLDOVA, RUSSIA AGREE ON BARTER PAYMENT FOR GAS DELIVERIES

payment for Russian gas deliveries, ITAR-TASS reported on 7

October. The agreement was concluded in Chisinau by experts

from the two countries' Agriculture Ministries. Moldova is to

deliver goods worth $100 million. Its debt for Russian gas

deliveries totals $700 million. MS

[25] BULGARIAN MAYORAL CANDIDATE BADLY BEATEN

Varna regional governor and the Union of Democratic Forces'

(SDS) mayoral candidate in the 16 October local elections,

was badly beaten in front of his house on 6 October, BTA

reported the next day, citing several media reports.

According to "Trud," the attack was an assassination attempt

carried out "by the mafia, which has declared war on the

state." The same daily reported that the incumbent Socialist

Party mayor of one of the districts in the town of Pernik has

received death threats by telephone and his office has been

burgled. In Bourgas, red paint has been splashed on the

billboards of an independent candidate. And "24 Chasa" and

"Demokratsiya" reported on 6 October that three blasts,

believed to aim at intimidating the SDS mayoral candidate,

occurred in Devin. MS

[C] END NOTE

[26] TEN YEARS ON: ECONOMIC VISION STILL NOT A REALITY

Visions, by their very nature, are hard to sustain. When

the Berlin Wall fell 10 years ago, heralding a new era in

Europe, much of the world had a common vision: namely, that

the countries of the crumbling Marxist sphere would join the

Western community in enjoying political freedoms and economic

prosperity based on market mechanisms.

During the following decade, the dream of democracy has

been largely fulfilled--with some exceptions--in a vast arc

of territory stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea.

Economic well-being, however, has proved more elusive,

and the revitalization of Central and Eastern Europe is still

an unfinished story. The transition to market economies has

not been easy, and the relative success or lack of success of

individual countries reflects a mix of complicated factors.

Only Poland among the transition states has lifted its

economic prosperity well above the level of 1989. Polish per

capita incomes this year are expected to reach about 130

percent of 1989 levels. At the other end of the spectrum,

Ukraine, with a stalled reform process, has seen people's

incomes plummet to half the levels of 1989.

Because Poland opted for radical reforms, the simple

conclusion might be that the so-called "big bang" method

produces the best results, despite its high social costs.

Hungary, too, has successfully opted for a radical course,

but Slovenia, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic have income

levels equal to or greater than that of Hungary--about 100

percent of their 1989 levels--and have chosen more gradualist

paths.

A senior economist with the Paris-based Organization for

Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Val Koromzay,

told RFE/RL that the real lesson of the last decade lies not

in a choice between big bang or gradualism. Rather, the

lesson is that the essential factor is coherent reform. He

says time has been reasonably forgiving of countries that

have been slower or faster. Those that got into trouble did

so because they backtracked away from reform, owing to

political opposition or perceived hardship.

Poland, Koromzay argued, was "always moving in the same

direction and despite numerous changes of government, I think

one can see clearly a thread of continuity, a direction."

Romania, by contrast, has lacked this sense of purpose,

and its political will has faded, Koromzay argued. Nervous

governments have sought to spare the population the pain of

restructuring, he noted, but instead they have condemned the

people to the continuation of miserable living standards with

little prospect of improvement.

"In Romania from the beginning there was this terrible

concern about hardships that transition would cause," he

commented. "Every time they came to a hard decision, for

instance on tightening budget constraints on enterprises, too

often they blinked. And that in turn...made their macro-

economic policies incoherent."

With regard to Bulgaria, Koromzay said that it wasted

the early years of transition under non-reformist

governments. Its industrial production is still one-third

less than it was in 1989, but recently there has been fresh

momentum under reformist Prime Minister Ivan Kostov. Koromzay

noted that this is encouraging: Bulgaria, he commented, "did

not get its act together for a number of years. But it shows

on the one hand how costly it is to delay, but on the other

hand that if you can get your act together even at a rather

late date, the possibilities for breaking out of a very bad

situation continue to exist."

Progress across the transition region is needed soon,

because after a decade of profound change, people are weary.

In the Czech Republic, opinion polls show growing support for

the Communists among frustrated voters. Similarly in eastern

Germany, recent state elections show strong support for the

former Communists. And in Poland, populist-nationalist trends

opposed to reform are evident.

Another expert in the region's transition process,

Giovanni Cornia of the United Nations University in Helsinki,

told RFE/RL that democracy "with falling incomes and rising

mortality is not a particularly attractive type of

democracy."

Cornia also advanced a theory to explain, at least in

part, why some countries have done better than others: the

countries that are succeeding today are those that have a

better-developed institutional framework, dating in part from

before the communist era. In other words, those countries of

Central Europe that were traditionally more institutionally

advanced than, say, their neighbors in the Balkans, are the

ones that will lead the race back into the market economy

today.

That historical advantage has also helped countries like

Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic gain places as front-

runners for membership of an expanded European Union. In

turn, Cornia says, the hope of entering the EU has been a

powerful motivation.

The author is a Prague-based RFE/RL correspondent.

08-10-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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