RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 144, 99-07-27

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From: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>

RFE/RL NEWSLINE

Vol. 3, No. 144, 27 July 1999

CONTENTS

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN GAS CRISIS EASES

[02] AZERBAIJAN DEFENSE MINISTRY OFFICIAL SACKED

[03] MUTALIBOV OPPOSES CONCERNS ON KARABAKH

[04] GEORGIA SEEKS UN FINDING OF ETHNIC CLEANSING IN ABKHAZIA

[05] GEORGIAN-ADJARIAN TENSIONS INCREASE

[06] TBILISI TO RE-EXAMINE APRIL 1989 EVENTS

[07] SHEVARDNADZE ACCUSES FIVE PARTIES OF BUYING VOTES...

[08] ...SAYS HE MET WITH CHECHENS ON HOSTAGES

[09] NAZARBAYEV SAYS KAZAKH MEDIA SHOULD PLAY 'POSITIVE' ROLE

[10] LOCUSTS DRIVE OUT KAZAKH AGRICULTURE MINISTER

[11] KAZAKH WOMEN PROTEST LAND PRIVATIZATION

[12] KYRGYZ-UZBEK GAS TALKS CONTINUE

[13] KYRGYZSTAN TO REMOVE DZERZHINSKY STATUE

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[14] HAGUE COURT MOVING CLOSER TO INDICTING TUDJMAN?

[15] CROATIAN OPPOSITION FORESEES POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS

[16] EFFECT OF INDICTMENT COULD BE DEVASTATING

[17] SECURITY COUNCIL CONDEMNS KILLINGS IN KOSOVA...

[18] ...AS DOES BERGER

[19] THACI SAYS GREATER ALBANIA NOT A GOAL

[20] SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO FORGE AGREEMENT?

[21] DJINDJIC CALLS ON GENERAL TO OPPOSE MILOSEVIC

[22] SERBIAN PETITION DRIVE CONTINUES

[23] DANUBE COMMISSION SAYS CLEAN-UP TO COST $90 MILLION

[24] ROMANIAN OFFICIAL SAYS IMF ACCORD NOT CERTAIN

[25] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION PARTY CONTINUES 'TRANSYLVANIA

[26] U.S. TO HELP FINANCING RUSSIAN ARSENAL WITHDRAWAL FROM

[27] BULGARIAN DEPUTY PREMIER SAYS KOSOVA CRISIS HELPED BALKANS

[C] END NOTE

[28] ZEMAN'S GOVERNMENT ONE YEAR ON: A DUBIOUS RECORD

[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA

[01] ARMENIAN GAS CRISIS EASES

most retail stations in Yerevan on 26 July, RFE/RL's Armenian

Service reported, but prices were approximately 10 percent

higher than a week earlier. Meanwhile, Armenpress reported

that Armenian authorities are blaming Romania and Bulgaria

for the crisis, noting that Bulgaria is now selling gas to

Yugoslavia while Romania's major refinery is undergoing

repairs. PG

[02] AZERBAIJAN DEFENSE MINISTRY OFFICIAL SACKED

Salimov, the chief of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry's

educational department, has been fired "for serious mistakes

in his work," the Turan news agency reported on 26 July. The

agency suggested that he was released because of an interview

he had given to the press supporting military critics of the

current defense minister and opposing improved relations

between Baku and NATO. PG

[03] MUTALIBOV OPPOSES CONCERNS ON KARABAKH

President Ayaz Mutalibov told Turan on 26 July that he

opposes making concessions to Armenia in order to resolve the

Karabakh problem. He rejected proposals for confederation or

a "common state" combining Azerbaijan and Karabakh, which, he

suggested, "in fact would mean independence" for the disputed

region. PG

[04] GEORGIA SEEKS UN FINDING OF ETHNIC CLEANSING IN ABKHAZIA

government wants the UN Security Council to issue a statement

finding that there has been ethnic cleansing in Abkhazia,

Interfax reported. But a source in the Russian Foreign

Ministry said that Moscow would oppose any such finding and

suggested that the Georgian request would likely be turned

down. "We have no arguments in favor of recognizing the fact

of ethnic cleansing against the Georgian population in

Abkhazia," the unnamed source told ITAR-TASS the same day.

Meanwhile, Georgian officials told Caucasus Press that the

failure of the UN to issue such a finding would be "a defeat

of the UN and a great disappointment for Georgia." At the UN,

Secretary-General Kofi Annan recommended that the UN mandate

in Georgia be extended. PG

[05] GEORGIAN-ADJARIAN TENSIONS INCREASE

deputies have said that a statement by Adjarian leader Aslan

Abashidze that the 1921 Kars Treaty should be restored is

"treasonous," Prime News reported on 26 July. Abashidze had

earlier cited that treaty as justifying his region's right to

free trade with Turkey and even to give him the right to stop

the collection of customs duties at seaports there. PG

[06] TBILISI TO RE-EXAMINE APRIL 1989 EVENTS

Shevardnadze has instructed his government to re-examine all

documents related to the actions of Soviet forces in

dispersing a peaceful demonstration in Tbilisi on 9 April

1989, Caucasus Press reported on 26 July. Shevardnadze said

he intends to publish a book on that tragic day, in which 16

people were killed and many more wounded. Meanwhile, former

Georgian Communist Party leader Jumbar Patiashvili said he

welcomes this new investigation and that if he or anyone else

is found to have violated the law, those people should be

punished. PG

[07] SHEVARDNADZE ACCUSES FIVE PARTIES OF BUYING VOTES...

Georgian president told a 26 July news conference that five

political parties in his country have sought to bribe voters,

Prime News reported. But the deputy chairman of the Central

Election Commission, Gia Zesashvili, appeared to limit their

legal liability by saying that vote-buying before a poll date

is set is not in fact a crime. Shevardnadze told the

journalists that he will soon fix a date for the elections.

PG

[08] ...SAYS HE MET WITH CHECHENS ON HOSTAGES

at his 26 July press conference, Shevardnadze announced that

he has met with Chechen Vice President Vakha Arsanov, now in

Georgia for medical treatment, to discuss the release of

Georgian citizens now held captive in Chechnya and the joint

fight against kidnapping. PG

[09] NAZARBAYEV SAYS KAZAKH MEDIA SHOULD PLAY 'POSITIVE' ROLE

his country on 26 July that further democratization there is

out of the question without a free media, "the basic

institution of any law-abiding state," Interfax reported. But

he suggested that journalists should give more attention to

"positive" developments" since "shortcomings are present in

any society; positive attitudes must be encouraged." PG

[10] LOCUSTS DRIVE OUT KAZAKH AGRICULTURE MINISTER

Minister of Agriculture Zhanibek Karibzhanov resigned on 26

July after being criticized for failing to prevent the

widespread locust infestation in that country, Reuters

reported. His resignation was immediately accepted. At

present, almost two-thirds of the area under cultivation

there is suffering from locusts, the agency noted. PG

[11] KAZAKH WOMEN PROTEST LAND PRIVATIZATION

declared a hunger strike in Almaty to demand that the

country's parliament not act to privatize agricultural land,

Interfax-Kazakhstan reported on 26 July. The women, ranging

in age from 30 to 81, said that "we are not frightened by

prison and death. We are only afraid of disgrace before

future generations." PG

[12] KYRGYZ-UZBEK GAS TALKS CONTINUE

state gas company told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service on 26 July

that Bishkek is trying to secure agreement with Tashkent on

stable deliveries of gas to Kyrgyzstan from Uzbekistan.

Kyrgyzstan owes Uzbekistan some $3.5 million, and gas

supplies have been irregular over the last year. PG

[13] KYRGYZSTAN TO REMOVE DZERZHINSKY STATUE

administration has decided to remove the statue of Soviet

secret police founder Feliks Dzherzhinsky from the center of

the city sometime in the near future, RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service

reported on 23 July. In its place, the city authorities plan

to erect a Statue of Liberty. PG

[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[14] HAGUE COURT MOVING CLOSER TO INDICTING TUDJMAN?

Gregory Kehoe told the Hague-based war crimes tribunal on 26

July that Croatian General Tihomir Blaskic, who is on trial

for war crimes committed in Bosnia's Lasva valley in 1993,

was only an instrument of anti-Muslim policies, for which

Croatian President Franjo Tudjman is ultimately responsible.

Kehoe argued that the plan that Blaskic carried out was

developed "in the halls of power in Zagreb by Franjo Tudjman

and his associates, then deployed in [Bosnia] by the

political structure there and the military machine" of the

Herzegovinian Croats. "Blaskic was the tool. He worked hand

in glove with [Tudjman and key Herzegovinian leaders] to

achieve their goals--the removal of Muslims and ultimate

annexation [of the Lasva valley] to the Republic of Croatia,"

Reuters quoted the prosecutor as saying. Kehoe's remarks come

at a time when Zagreb's relations with the court are strained

over Croatia's refusal to extradite two indicted war

criminals (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 July 1999). PM

[15] CROATIAN OPPOSITION FORESEES POLITICAL REPERCUSSIONS

"Jutarnji list" of 27 July that Kehoe's statements could lead

to the most serious domestic crisis in Croatia since the

country gained independence in 1991. Liberal leader Drazen

Budisa said that the latest developments in The Hague do not

bode well for Croatia. The Social Democrats' Ivica Racan

called the news from the court "disturbing." Tudjman's

spokesman, Tihomir Vinkovic, charged the court with meddling

in politics. Ivica Ropus, who is the spokesman for Tudjman's

governing Croatian Democratic Community, said that he is "not

surprised" by the news from The Hague, because the court has

a "political agenda" against Croatia. PM

[16] EFFECT OF INDICTMENT COULD BE DEVASTATING

27 July noted that the Hague court recently ruled that the

1992-1995 conflict in Bosnia was an international conflict

and not a civil war. That decision opened the way to a

possible indictment of Belgrade leaders for their role in the

bloodletting in Bosnia. Kehoe's remarks suggest that the

prosecutors might soon turn their attention to the Zagreb

leadership as well. Observers note that the potential effect

of any future indictment by the Hague tribunal of Tudjman and

other top Croatian leaders could have an immense impact on

Croatia. That country depends on tourism and remittances from

workers abroad for most of its hard-currency income. Croatia

would therefore be much more vulnerable than Serbia if the

international community were to apply sanctions as long as

indicted war criminals remained in high office. PM

[17] SECURITY COUNCIL CONDEMNS KILLINGS IN KOSOVA...

highest body issued a statement on 26 July, in which it

called the recent killing of 14 Serbian farmers in Staro

Gracko a "criminal act" and urged that those responsible be

brought to justice (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 July 1999). The

statement also expressed support for KFOR and the UN-

sponsored civilian administration "in their efforts to ensure

peace and security for all inhabitants" of the province. In

Brussels, the EU Presidency condemned the killings in a

statement calling on all citizens of Kosova to work for a

common future "without violence or atrocities." PM

[18] ...AS DOES BERGER

Adviser Sandy Berger said in Washington on 26 July that the

U.S. will provide up to $500 million to help Kosovars restore

their homes and otherwise prepare for the coming winter.

Referring to the Staro Gracko killings, Berger added that

"this act of violence is not the same as the massive

systematic campaign which was unleashed by [Yugoslav

President Slobodan] Milosevic. But it is profoundly wrong and

unacceptable and we will work against it. Those in the region

who wish to be our partners must work actively against it as

well," Reuters reported. PM

[19] THACI SAYS GREATER ALBANIA NOT A GOAL

(UCK) leader Hashim Thaci told the Ljubljana-based weekly

"Mladina" that the Kosovars did not fight to establish a

greater Albania, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 26

July. He added that the border between Kosova and Albania

will remain in place. Thaci stressed that the UCK will not

accept republican status within Yugoslavia. He noted that

Kosova's legal tender soon will not be the Yugoslav dinar but

rather the German mark. PM

[20] SERBIAN OPPOSITION TO FORGE AGREEMENT?

for Change leader Vladan Batic told Reuters on 27 July that

"we expect a gentleman's agreement between the Alliance for

Change and [Vuk Draskovic's] Serbian Renewal Movement very

soon." He did not elaborate but suggested that talks are

approaching an agreement whereby the two main opposition

groupings would not publicly attack each other. PM

[21] DJINDJIC CALLS ON GENERAL TO OPPOSE MILOSEVIC

Party leader Zoran Djindjic said in Sabac on 26 July that

General Nebojsa Pavkovic, who commands the Third Army, based

in southern Serbia, should support the drive to oust

Milosevic. Djindjic argued that the president is no longer

capable of carrying out his duty to represent Yugoslavia

abroad because he is an indicted war criminal. Djindjic

stressed that it is Pavkovic's "duty" to help oust a

president who cannot carry out his responsibilities. Pavkovic

recently criticized the opposition for allegedly seeking the

"unlawful" overthrow of a legally elected government (see

"RFE/RL Newsline," 26 July 1999). PM

[22] SERBIAN PETITION DRIVE CONTINUES

for Change said in Belgrade on 26 July that volunteer workers

have collected 550,000 signatures on a petition calling for

Milosevic to resign. Some 70,000 signatures come from

Belgrade and 30,000 from Nis. The goal of the petition drive

is to collect 2 million signatures, RFE/RL's South Slavic

Service reported. PM

[23] DANUBE COMMISSION SAYS CLEAN-UP TO COST $90 MILLION

from the international Danube Commission told Yugoslav

officials that it will cost $14 million to clear the waterway

as a result of damage caused by NATO's air campaign against

Yugoslavia. Another $13 million will be needed to build

temporary bridges and a further $63 million to rebuild or

repair damaged bridges over the Danube. The experts said it

will take up to six months to clear the waterway and some

three years to rebuild the bridges. PM

[24] ROMANIAN OFFICIAL SAYS IMF ACCORD NOT CERTAIN

Banu, state secretary in the Ministry of Finance, told

journalists on 26 July that Romania must still fulfill two

conditions before the IMF executive board will consider

approval of the $500 million stand-by loan agreed on in

Bucharest last April. Banu said the two conditions--

securing a $350 million credit from private lenders and

completing the transfer of accounts from the near-bankrupt

Bancorex to the Romanian Commercial Bank--must be fulfilled

by 5 August, when the board is scheduled to discuss the

loan, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS

[25] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION PARTY CONTINUES 'TRANSYLVANIA

Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR)

chairman Ion Iliescu on 26 July said Hungary has no right

to criticize Romania's minorities policies as long as "it

has not set its own house in order" and pursues a policy of

assimilation toward its own ethnic minorities. Adrian

Nastase, PDSR first deputy chairman, said three days

earlier that the setting up of a Hungarian-language state

university "makes no sense in a unitary state, where a

state university in a language different from the official

one is inconceivable." On 25 July, Nastase elaborated that

"one cannot accept the existence of two types of

nationalism, a good one that is Hungarian, a bad one that

is Romanian." He said that Romania must not become the

"practice ground for all sorts of revisionist sharp-shooter

formulas." MS

[26] U.S. TO HELP FINANCING RUSSIAN ARSENAL WITHDRAWAL FROM

The U.S. will grant Moldova $30 million in aid to

help finance the withdrawal of the Russian troops' arsenal

from the Transdniester, AP reported on 26 July, citing the

Moldpres agency. Ceslav Ciobanu, Moldovan ambassador to

Washington, said the decision was adopted last week by the

House of Representatives. MS

[27] BULGARIAN DEPUTY PREMIER SAYS KOSOVA CRISIS HELPED BALKANS

Bakardzhiev commented in a 26 July interview with Reuters on

the impact of the Kosova crisis on the Balkans. Bakardzhiev

explained that the region "used to be one of divisions"

between Islam and Christianity and later between the Warsaw

Pact and NATO, but in the wake of the Kosova crisis, the

Balkan states have "identified common goals, such as EU

membership and cooperation in joint infrastructure projects."

He added that "Europe and the world are now paying serious

attention to southeastern Europe," and foreign investors

could return to the region if they see it as stable and

reform-inclined. MS

[C] END NOTE

[28] ZEMAN'S GOVERNMENT ONE YEAR ON: A DUBIOUS RECORD

On 22 July 1998, Czech President Vaclav Havel swore in

the minority Social Democratic (CSSD) cabinet of Milos Zeman.

One year minus one day later, Zeman dismissed Finance

Minister Ivo Svoboda, against whom police had recently

brought charges for damaging the interests of creditors of a

baby-stroller factory that he co-managed before becoming a

minister. Worse still, the anniversary was heavily shadowed

by the findings of a public opinion poll conducted by the

STEM institute showing that the CSSD has been pushed to third

place in party preferences, trailing not only its rival-and-

ally, the Civic Democratic Party (ODS), but also the

Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM). Given what

prompted the Czech electorate in June 1998 to return the CSSD

as the strongest party in the Chamber of Deputies (32.3

percent, 74 seats), the record of the Czech cabinet is

dubious.

Following a series of corruption scandals, former Prime

Minister Vaclav Klaus was forced to resign in 1997 and his

party was decimated by dissidents who broke away to set up

the Freedom Union. Apparently aware that the CSSD owed its

plurality in the parliament more to Klaus's failures than to

its alternative electoral program, Zeman pledged from the

outset to launch a "clean hands" campaign and extirpate

corruption from public administration. Ironically, it was one

more corruption scandal that marred the anniversary of his

one year in power.

Like the ODS in its time, the CSSD has been eager not

only to make arguably justifiable political appointments at

the head of government departments, but also (and this can no

longer be justified in any way) to appoint its cronies to

leading positions in state-owned companies. And owing to the

"opposition agreement" with the ODS--which allowed the

formation of a minority government in exchange for leading

positions in the parliament--this amounted to little else

than reaching a modus vivendi (albeit sometimes a tense one)

with Klaus's party over the division of the spoils.

In July 1998, Zeman promised that his ministers would

receive a "performance review" after one year and that those

found to be lacking the necessary skills will be fired. That

promise was apparently not kept. At the very least, Zeman

might have been expected to part company with Jaroslav Basta,

the minister in charge of the anti-corruption campaign. Not

that other cabinet members were immune to criticism: the

daily "Lidove noviny" on 21 July called Deputy Premier Egon

Lansky "the non-coordinating coordinator" of foreign policy,

while Development Minister Jaromil Cisar, Health Minister

Ivan David, and Agriculture Minister Jan Fencl were all

heavily criticized by the media, the opposition, and interest

groups for their performance. In fact, Zeman himself had

acknowledged on 16 July that the performance of at least four

members of his cabinet (whom he did not name) was

"unsatisfactory."

The reluctance to subject his cabinet to more radical

consequences raises the question of whether Svoboda has been

pushed away for reasons other than his implication in the

Liberta baby-stroller affair. The former minister is known to

belong to the so-called "[Stanislav] Gross faction," headed

by the CSSD parliamentary group chairman, who reportedly is a

Zeman rival within the party.

Be that as it may, after one year in power Zeman's

ratings in opinion polls have plunged by 20 percent, and the

CSSD's performance accounted for most of the upsurge in the

support for the KSCM, with 20 percent of CSSD voters in 1998

now backing the Communists. A STEM poll published on 21 July

indicated that nearly three in four Czechs (74 percent) are

dissatisfied with the government's performance and that even

those who are still CSSD supporters tend toward the same

dissatisfaction (43 percent).

The minority cabinet's handling of foreign policy has

been just as bad, and possibly even worse. Perhaps no one

outmatched Lansky, who as foreign policy coordinator should

have known better than to contradict Foreign Minister Jan

Kavan during the Kosova crisis. Criticism of the NATO air

strikes in Yugoslavia emanating from different ministers as

the crisis peaked, a "Czech-Greek initiative" for settling

the conflict launched without consulting the other NATO

members, and criticism of Havel's visit to Kosova after the

war by Zeman himself and other ministers--all these factors

led (according to NATO sources that desire anonymity) to the

questioning of the wisdom of expanding the alliance. Add to

this the failure to promote legislation bringing Czech

legislation into line with that of the EU (which has prompted

union officials to wonder whether Prague will forfeit its

membership in the "fast-track group") and one is left with a

rather poor overall record.

Is Zeman, as a columnist in "Zemske noviny" claimed on

21 July, the "worst and the most untrustworthy head of

government the independent Czech Republic has ever had?" He

has at least one rival for that spot. The premier has

repeatedly said that he intends to leave politics at the end

of his cabinet's term. Those inclined to prophesize are

already saying that Zeman will blame his failures on that

same competitor, by whose grace the CSSD cabinet rules under

the "opposition agreement." Should that prophecy come true,

what started as "operation clean hands" would end up as

"operation wash hands."

27-07-99

Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
URL: http://www.rferl.org

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