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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 3, No. 125, 99-06-28Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 3, No. 125, 28 June 1999CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] POPE TO SEND CARDINAL TO ARMENIAJohn Paul II will send Cardinal Edward Cassidy, the head of the Vatican's Council for Christian Unity, to Armenia on 1 July to convey a personal message from the pontiff to Catholicos Garegin I, who is terminally ill with cancer, Reuters reported on 25 June. Two planned visits by the pope to visit the ailing Catholicos have been postponed (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 7 and 17 June 1999). LF[02] GEORGIAN, ABKHAZ OFFICIALS FAIL TO AGREE ON MEETING OF LEADERS...At a two-hour meeting outside Tbilisi on 25 June held at the request of the Abkhaz leadership, Georgian Minister of State Vazha Lortkipanidze rejected a proposal by Abkhaz presidential adviser Anri Djergenia that a meeting between Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze and Abkhaz leader Vladislav Ardzinba be convened as soon as possible in order to give new impetus to the peace process, Caucasus Press reported. Lortkipanidze told journalists he sees no need for such a meeting. LF[03] ...OR PRISONER EXCHANGEThe same day, the Coordinating Council, which was created under UN auspices in November 1997, failed to reach agreement at a meeting in Tbilisi on the three issues discussed: ensuring the security of Georgian displaced persons who return to Abkhazia, creating Russian- Abkhaz-Georgian patrols to combat terrorism in southern Abkhazia, and an exchange of prisoners. Tbilisi is demanding the unconditional extradition of nine crew members of a Georgian fishing vessel intercepted in Abkhaz territorial waters in April (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 8 and 14 April 1999) and the exchange of all prisoners held by each side. The Abkhaz want to exchange the fishing crew for three Abkhaz whom they claim are being detained in Georgia. Meanwhile, a group of some 100 Georgians who are blocking motor traffic across the Inguri bridge, which links Abkhazia with the rest of Georgia, have begun a hunger strike to demand the release of relatives sentenced to prison terms in Abkhazia (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 June 1999). LF[04] RUSSIA AGAIN DENIES VIOLATING GEORGIAN AIRSPACEThe Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on 25 June reaffirming denials by the Russian air force and Defense Ministry that four Russian aircraft overflew Georgia without permission on 18 June, Caucasus Press reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 21 and 22 June 1999). A Georgian Defense Ministry official said the planes were en route to Yerevan from an airbase in Rostov. In his weekly radio address on 28 June, President Shevardnadze said Georgia is capable of defending its own airspace, and should not reconcile itself to the inevitability of further violations, Caucasus Press reported. LF[05] JAILED GEORGIAN WARLORD UNDERGOES SURGERYDjaba Ioseliani, the 71-year-old leader of the Mkhedrioni paramilitary formation, has been transferred from prison to an undisclosed medical facility for urgently needed prostate surgery, Caucasus Press reported on 26 June. Ioseliani, who is also suffering from bone tuberculosis, had threatened to embark on a hunger strike if he was denied an alternative to treatment in the prison hospital (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 2, No. 24, 17 June 1999). He was sentenced in November 1998 to 11 years in prison on charges of treason, robbery, and participating in the August 1995 attempt to assassinate Shevardnadze. Ioseliani denies all those charges. Also on 26 June, Georgian Minister of Health Avtandil Jorbenadze told journalists in Tbilisi that the Health and Interior Ministries will sign a joint protocol providing for the release from jail of some prisoners suffering from tuberculosis, cancer, diabetes, and other illnesses. "Alia" on 28 June reported that 10 percent of the country's estimated 11,000 prisoners suffer from tuberculosis. LF[06] GEORGIA'S CHECHEN MINORITY FEARS REPRISALSThe Chechen minority in northeastern Georgia, which is estimated at some 20,000, is alarmed by an increase in Georgian hostility toward them since a shooting incident 10 days ago in which two Georgian police officers and two Chechens were killed (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 June 1999). Chechen Vice Presidents Akhmed Zakaev and Kazbek Makhashev visited the Pankisi gorge in northeastern Georgia on 25 June to appeal to local Chechens not to take any action that could exacerbate those tensions, Caucasus Press reported. LF[07] KAZAKH PRESIDENT CALLS FOR 'NEW APPROACHES'Nursultan Nazarbaev said on 25 June, one day after the government survived a confidence vote in both chambers of the parliament, that the cabinet should devise "new approaches" to improving the economic situation in order to render the ongoing crisis as painless as possible for the population, Interfax reported. The previous day, the chairman of Kazakhstan's Economic Planning Agency, Roman Solodchenko, told a news conference in Astana that Kazakhstan will invest $1.35 billion in the economy from 1999-2001, according to Interfax. Of that amount, 47.4 percent will be invested in transportation and communications and 16.6 percent in agriculture. Foreign loans and interest-free grants will cover 86.8 percent of the total investment. LF[08] KYRGYZ CABINET DISCUSSES ECONOMIC SITUATIONPrime Minister Amangeldi Muraliev chaired a government meeting in Bishkek on 26 June at which Finance Minister Marat Sultanov characterized the current economic and social situation as "very serious," RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau reported. Sultanov said the government will be able to pay wage and pension arrears only after it receives new loans or grants from abroad. The internal debt is currently about 500 million soms (some $12 million). Muraliev urged the government to speed up privatization of the three largest state-owned companies-- Kyrgyztelecom, the Kyrgyz national airline, and the Kyrgyzenergo energy company. A special government commission has been formed to liquidate 120 bankrupt state enterprises. LF[09] TAJIK PRESIDENT, OPPOSITION LEADER FAIL TO REACH AGREEMENTMeeting in Dushanbe on 25 June to review implementation of the 1997 peace agreement, Imomali Rakhmonov and United Tajik Opposition leader Said Abdullo Nuri failed to reach agreement on the candidacy of opposition field commander Mirzo Zieyev as defense minister. Rakhmonov proposed several alternative posts for Zieyev, all of which Nuri rejected. The following day, Nuri said he may resign as chairman of the National Reconciliation Commission, on which the government and opposition are equally represented, unless progress is made in implementing the peace agreement. He added that Rakhmonov's rejection of Zieyev's candidacy jeopardizes the entire peace process. On 27 June, the second anniversary of the signing of the peace agreement, Nuri called on the population of Tajikistan to maintain unity and independence, according to ITAR-TASS. LF[10] UZBEK OPPOSITION LEADER WARNS OF AFGHAN-STYLE CIVIL WAR...In a 14 June appeal addressed to OSCE Chairman-in-Office Knut Vollebaek, Muhammed Solih, exiled chairman of the Erk opposition party, condemned the repressive policies implemented by President Islam Karimov over the past seven years in the name of "stability" with the tacit support of Russia and the West. He warned that those policies, together with the reprisals that followed the 16 February bombings in Tashkent, have increased the population's hatred of the leadership and brought the country to the verge of a "social detonation" and Afghan-style civil war. Solih appealed to the international community to take unspecified measures to preclude such a crisis. LF[11] ...AS HUMAN RIGHTS, RELIGIOUS ACTIVISTS SUFFER...Uzbek Interior Ministry officials searched the home of Mikhail Arzinov, chairman of Uzbekistan's Independent Human Rights Organization, on 25 June and confiscated a computer, fax machine, and documents, RFE/RL's Tashkent bureau reported. Arzinov was assaulted during the search. Meanwhile two men arrested for their religious beliefs have died in Uzbek prisons. One, a 40- year-old member of the banned Hizbi-Tahrir sect who was arrested two weeks ago, died in pretrial detention in Tashkent. The second, Akhmadkhon Turakhanov, was sentenced in March 1999 to six years' imprisonment on charges of hooliganism and attempting to overthrow the country's leadership. He had publicly criticized the Uzbek government's policies, specifically its failure to provide gas and water supplies to the population. Turakhanov suffered from diabetes and possibly also tuberculosis. According to Amnesty International, his relatives believe he was denied adequate medical care in prison. LF[12] ...AND PRESIDENT BLAMES RELIGIOUS EXTREMISTSPresident Karimov told Uzbekistan's national news agency on 25 June that the country is experiencing a period of "very difficult" political processes, Interfax reported. Karimov said that internal and external forces, including radical Islamic groups, are trying to undermine the country's security and force a transition from "civilized democratic development." He said the religious groups in question have intensified their activities in recent years, seeking especially to recruit sympathizers among the Uzbek population. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[13] UNHCR LAUNCHES ORGANIZED REFUGEE RETURNSome 390 refugees left Macedonia for Kosova on 28 June within the framework of the UNHCR's organized refugee return program, Austrian Radio reported. An RFE/RL South Slavic Service correspondent reported that international humanitarian organizations will receive the refugees when they arrive in Kosova and supply them with food and other necessities. Those whose houses have been destroyed will receive temporary accommodation. Meanwhile, more than 2,000 refugees crossed from Macedonia into Kosova on 27 June. An RFE/RL South Slavic Service correspondent reported from Morina on the Albanian frontier that between 12,000 and 17,000 refugees enter Kosova every day, causing considerable traffic jams. UNHCR officials estimate that about 208,000 refugees are still in camps in Albania, 67,200 in Macedonia, 45,900 in Montenegro, and 21,000 in Bosnia-Herzegovina. More than 415,000 refugees have returned on their own during the past two weeks following KFOR's entry into Kosova. FS[14] PAVLE HOLDS MASS AT KOSOVO POLJESerbian Orthodox Patriarch Pavle held a mass at a historic monastery on 28 June to mark the 610th anniversary of the Battle of Kosovo Polje, where Ottoman forces defeated troops of the medieval Serbian state and its allies. The Church issued a statement to note that the commemoration this year "differs from the previous ones: there will be no hypocrisy in it, in its celebration the godless leaders of our people will take no part," AP reported. Observers note that the reference is to Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, who has often used commemorative meetings at Kosovo Polje for his own political purposes. The Church has never trusted Milosevic because of his communist background. PM[15] 'ANARCHY' IN KOSOVAIn several parts of Kosova over the weekend, groups of ethnic Albanians looted and burned Serbian apartments and homes, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" reported on 28 June. Incidents of lawlessness were so numerous that KFOR peacekeepers were unable to control the situation. German KFOR officials in Prizren on 27 June imposed a 12:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. curfew for all civilians in that town, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported. In Peja, a spokesman for Italian KFOR said that "uniformed Albanians" killed a Serbian woman. In Mitrovica, tensions continued between the Kosovar and Serbian communities, which are separated by the Sitnica River, the "Berliner Zeitung" reported. PM[16] CLARK CALLS FOR HELPNATO Supreme Commander Europe General Wesley Clark called on countries contributing peacekeepers to KFOR to send their troops to Kosova as soon as possible in the interests of restoring order there, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 27 June. In New York, he told NBC Television that "in a number of locations, it's clear that Serbian paramilitaries, some with connections with intelligence organizations, ...have remained behind" in Kosova. PM[17] HAVEL VISITS ALBANIA, KOSOVACzech President Vaclav Havel visited Albania and Kosova on 27 June, CTK reported. He went to the burnt-out village of Pirane near Prizren and the Czech field hospital in Kavaja. Czech Radio reported that Havel told Albanian President Rexhep Meidani in Tirana that the future of Albania and the Balkans as a whole is looking "bright," provided a civil society is "firmly established in the Balkans." Havel also said that it is necessary to promote coexistence of people of different religious beliefs, traditions, and cultures. Czech Defense Minister Vladimir Vetchy signed a cooperation agreement with his Albanian counterpart, Luan Hajdaraga. Havel is the first foreign head of state to visit Kosova since Serbian forces left the province earlier this month. FS[18] SERBS FREE PRISONERSSerbian authorities on 25 June turned over some 166 prisoners from Kosova to officials of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) at an undisclosed location, Reuters reported. A spokesman for the ICRC said that Serbian forces brought the prisoners to Nis during the recent Serbian retreat from Kosova. The spokesman added that the ICRC is still seeking access to an unspecified number of additional Kosovar prisoners held in Serbia. He noted that the Kosova peace agreement does not contain a clause guaranteeing the ICRC access to prisons or calling for the freeing of prisoners. PM[19] DOCUMENTS LINK BELGRADE TO KILLINGSSerbian forces retreating from Kosova recently left behind "hundreds of documents" that prove that the top leadership in Belgrade meticulously planned the ethnic cleansing of Kosova under the code name "Operation Horseshoe." That operation has cost some 14,000 people their lives since March. Most of the documents are now in the hands of the Kosova Liberation Army (UCK), the London-based paper "The Observer" reported on 27 June. PM[20] ANNAN TO NAME ADMINISTRATOR FOR KOSOVAUN Secretary-General Kofi Annan will name a civilian administrator for Kosova by the end of the week, the "Financial Times" of 28 June quoted him as saying. Annan added that his choice will most likely be a European because "Europe is going to foot quite a lot of the bill" for the reconstruction and development of Kosova. He also said that his candidate will be someone with "political sense, a leader and manager, who is also a good negotiator." Reuters reported that Annan's choice may well be Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, who helped negotiate the recent peace settlement for Kosova. PM[21] EU MINISTERS SAY 'NO' TO HOMBACHEU foreign ministers meeting in Rio de Janeiro on 27 June did not approve German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's nomination of Chancellery Minister Bodo Hombach to be the EU's coordinator for the Balkan stability pact (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 24 June 1999). The "Berliner Zeitung" reported that the Greek government wants the post for a Greek, and that Austrian Foreign Minister Wolfgang Schuessel seeks the post for former Deputy Chancellor Erhard Busek, who is an expert in Balkan affairs. Critics of the Hombach nomination in Germany and elsewhere in Europe note that he lacks experience in the Balkans and have suggested that Schroeder nominated him as a way of getting him out of the German cabinet. EU heads of government are slated to discuss Hombach's candidacy in Rio de Janeiro on 28 June. PM[22] U.S. OPPOSES MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCEState Department spokesman James Rubin said in Washington on 25 June that "further disintegration of Yugoslavia would not serve to promote peace and stability in the Balkans. Moreover, independence would not be a panacea for the challenges that Montenegro faces," AP reported. In Podgorica, Montenegrin officials told the news agency that they are preparing a package of economic and legal measures aimed at bringing Montenegro into line with "the rules and standards of European integration." One proposal is to introduce a Montenegrin currency pegged to the German mark or the Euro. PM[23] OPPOSITION SWEEP IN CROATIAN LOCAL VOTEUnofficial early returns suggest that the opposition coalition has won 22 seats in the election for the Trogir town council, RFE/RL's South Slavic Service reported on 27 June. The governing Croatian Democratic Community has four seats. PM[24] CROATIAN FARMERS' PROTEST CONTINUESFarmers blocked four international border crossings and all major roads in northern and eastern Croatia on 28 June, the third day of their protest, Reuters reported. Talks between the government and representatives of the farmer's union broke off in Osijek the previous day without any result. Union officials said that farmers will continue to block roads until the government raises the minimum price for wheat and agrees to ban imports of foodstuffs that Croatia produces in sufficient quantities. The farmers also want the government to draft a series of measures that will help revive agriculture. PM[25] GOVERNMENT TO PRESS CHARGES AGAINST CROATIAN EDITORPolice officials told the state-run news agency Hina on 27 June that police have found five classified documents belonging to the secret services in the flat of Ivo Pukanic, who is the editor of the independent weekly "Nacional." The police officials said that the state prosecutor will press charges against Pukanic for violating laws on the right to possess classified documents. "Nacional" recently published the texts of several official documents indicating that the secret services have been involved in fixing soccer matches and bugging the phones of many prominent Croats. PM[26] ROMANIA ALLOWS RUSSIAN OVERFLIGHTS AFTER MOSCOW OFFERS 'EXPLANATIONS'Overflights of Russian planes have been resumed following "explanations" provided by Moscow via "diplomatic channels," Romanian Radio reported on 28 June. On 27 June, Romania "suspended" overflights to Kosova approved earlier that day because two Russian planes entered Romanian airspace within a period of only 92 minutes. Those aircraft thus violated the agreement under which the corridor had been approved, which called for a four-hour gap between flights. The second of the two planes was escorted to the border by three Romanian aircraft. Bucharest then announced it had "temporarily suspended" such flights. MS[27] ROMANIAN OPPOSITION PARTIES ATTACK NATO COMMANDER'S STATEMENTAdrian Nastase, first deputy chairman of the opposition Party of Social Democracy in Romania, said on 25 June that a statement attributed to NATO Supreme Commander Europe General Clark is "extremely serious." "Napi Magyarorszag" had cited Clark as saying at a NATO conference in Budapest last week that the "principles" of the 1920 Versailles Treaty agreement are "outdated" and that the days when "sovereignty" meant that states could "treat their citizens any way they want are over." Nastase commented that the war in Yugoslavia has "created a chain of new tension hotbeds," some of which, including Vojvodina, are "artificial but cunningly masterminded," Mediafax reported. Greater Romania Party leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor also denounced Clark and Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban for speaking out in favor of autonomy for Vojvodina's ethnic Hungarian minority. MS[28] BULGARIA APPROVES NATO TRANSIT, DELAYS ANSWER ON RUSSIAN OVERFLIGHTSThe parliament on 25 June overwhelmingly approved the transit of KFOR troops and equipment through Bulgarian territory. The vote was 208 to two with two abstentions, BTA reported (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 22 June 1999). The legislators also approved a 12-month extension of Bulgaria's participation in SFOR in Bosnia. Defense Minister Georgi Ananiev said on 27 June that Polish and Turkish troops will be the first NATO contingents to cross Bulgarian territory en route to Kosova. Bulgaria, meanwhile, has not yet approved a Russian request for the overflight of six military planes. Foreign Ministry spokesman Radko Vlaikov told Reuters that Bulgarian legislation requires parliamentary approval of the overflights within five working days, which will start on 29 June. He added that the planes must not carry any weapons or reconnaissance equipment. MS[29] ETHNIC BULGARIAN LEADER COMPLAINS ABOUT TREATMENT IN SERBIAN PRISONMarko Shukarev, who is currently on bail after appealing a prison sentence for dodging Yugoslav military service (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 June 1999), told an RFE/RL correspondent in Sofia in a 25 June telephone conversation that he was beaten and tortured by Serbian prison guards during his detention. He said the guards denied him medical care and beat him with clubs if he spent longer in the bathroom than was permitted. Shukarev said the worst part of his captivity was seeing the guards beat ethnic Albanian prisoners as often as five times a day. MS[C] END NOTE[30] WHEN POLLSTERS AGREE: THE CASE OF ROMANIABy Michael ShafirAs is well known, public opinion polls are not an infallible instrument--or else one could do away with elections proper. Apart from problems arising from sampling techniques (and they may be major), opinion surveys, even if conducted most rigorously, merely reflect the views of the population, or of a segment thereof, at a certain moment in time and under the influence of certain circumstances. Change those circumstances, and opinions may shift, sometimes radically so. Consequently, not even when pollsters agree among themselves can one infer that their findings are more than a reflection of the prevailing--time and space constrained--opinions. When pollsters begin to agree over periods of time, however, things might begin to be different, and they are certainly more so when the agreement bridges over such classical social cleavages as the sampled population's education, urban-rural divisions, regional divisions, and so forth. This, precisely, seems to be the case when one takes an even superficial look at the findings of Romanian pollsters in the course of the last year or so. With a rather unusual degree of certainty, one can predict that in 2000 the ruling Democratic Convention of Romania (CDR), the major coalition alliance, will be sent back to the benches of the opposition. Furthermore, the polls predict that President Emil Constantinescu will meet a similar fate. The latest poll, conducted by the Center for Public Opinion and Marketing Research (CSOP) with a sample of 1,222 respondents between 31 May and 6 June, puts former President Ion Iliescu at the top in electoral preferences for the presidential post (38 percent), considerably ahead of Constantinescu (20 percent). This survey confirms the findings of the poll conducted in May on behalf of the Soros Foundation by two other Romanian institutes, Metro-Media Transylvania (MMT), and the Center for Urban and Rural Sociology (CURS), with a sample of 2,000 respondents. Since the two surveys nearly overlap in time, their similarity is hardly surprising. The MMT-CURS survey had Iliescu leading the field of presidential contenders with 35 percent, followed by Constantinescu with 26 percent. How do these findings compare with earlier surveys, however, bearing in mind the caveat on the validity of sampling mentioned above? Can one, in other words, speak of a "trend"? Indeed, one can. The so-called "Barometer" surveys, conducted on behalf of the Soros Foundation, show that Constantinescu's support started declining in 1998 (34 percent, compared to 47 percent in 1997), though Iliescu's ratings in 1997 and 1998 were nearly identical (21 and 22 percent, respectively). Among other presidential aspirants, the leader of the extremist Greater Romania Party (PRM) seems to be paying a price for openly siding with the miners' aborted march on Bucharest earlier this year and thus challenging the very foundations of a state based on the rule of law: while in 1987 14 percent backed Corneliu Vadim Tudor for president and 18 percent did so in 1998, his support is now at an 8 percent ebb. The support for political parties closely follows that for their leaders. Iliescu's Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) is the main beneficiary of the Romanian population's changing political perceptions. These perceptions are perhaps best illustrated in answers to other questions included in the Soros Foundation sponsored surveys. In March 1997, shortly after the 1996 parliamentary elections, a slight majority (52 percent) of the electorate was of the opinion that Romania is marching "in the right direction." The CDR was promising at that time economic reforms and the PDSR had just paid the price for failing to implement them. By June 1998, after the CDR, in turn, had failed to implement what it had promised, only 25 percent still thought Romania was marching on the right path and 52 percent were of the opposite opinion. The "performance record" of the CDR was there for all to see, in other words. By November 1998, those so persuaded had increased to 64 percent and in the latest "Barometer" fully two-thirds of all respondents (66 percent) were of this opinion. It was no coincidence (as Soviet-time "Pravda" loved to put it) that by November 1998 a majority (51 percent) were of the opinion that "life had been better" under the Ceausescu regime and that this majority has increased to 63 percent in June 1999. Yet it is not the openly Communist-nostalgic PRM but the PDSR that is benefiting from this trend. The party's support increased from 16 percent in 1997 to 26 percent the next year and to 39 percent now, when it tops party preferences. Conversely, backing for the CDR dropped from 51 percent in 1997 to 30 percent in 1998 and only 22 percent now. Is the Romanians' memory short lived? Perhaps. Bearing in mind, however, that fully 47 percent in the last CSOP survey, and no less than 46 percent in the MMT-CURS survey, were unable to answer the question of which party they would back if elections were conducted now, it may be too early to declare the PDSR the winner of the 2000 electoral ballot. But few will doubt that the CDR will be the loser, no matter who wins those elections. And it would lose for the same reason that the PDSR lost the elections in 1996, namely for its abysmal "performance record." The real loser, however, may be Romanian democracy, for the very high percentage of disoriented voters is an indication of a very high proportion of disillusioned voters, or of those who have lost hope, as a plethora of data from the recent surveys illustrates. 28-06-99 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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