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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 58, 98-03-25Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 58, 25 March 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] SITUATION WORSENS OUTSIDE TAJIK CAPITALAt least 20 government soldiers were killed in fighting near Kofarnikhon on 24 March, RFE/RL correspondents reported. The government sent troops to the area, about 20 kilometers east of Dushanbe, following the killing of six policemen there on 23 March. Fighting broke out between those troops and an armed group whose loyalties are still unclear. Some 50 government soldiers have been captured by the group, and there are unconfirmed reports that the group has surrounded another 180. Members of the National Reconciliation Commission and UN observers attempted to talk to the group, but Interfax reported they were fired upon, despite the fact their vehicles displayed the UN flag. Meanwhile, some 10 people drowned attempting to cross a river to escape the fighting. The total number of civilian casualties is unknown. No fighting was reported during the night, and new efforts are reported under way to find a peaceful resolution. BP[02] NEW KYRGYZ PREMIER NAMEDLess than 24 hours after Apas Jumagulov resigned as prime minister, the parliament approved Kubanychbek Jumaliev as his replacement, RFE/RL correspondents in Bishkek reported. Until recently, the 42-year-old Jumaliev, who is a physicist by training, was the head of the presidential administration. It is rumored that Jumagulov, who resigned of his own accord, will soon be appointed an ambassador. But a scandal has been growing around Jumagulov since the Kyrgyz daily newspaper "Vecherny Bishkek" reported on 13 and 20 March that Jumagulov is a founding member of an obscure Austrian company now handling the sale of Kyrgyz gold. That company reportedly stands to make profits totaling $80-100 million over the next three years. BP[03] KAZAKH PHOSPHORUS ENTERPRISE SOLDThe Kazfosfor joint-stock company was sold on 24 March to the Hong Kong- based TEXUMA company, RFE/RL correspondents in Almaty reported. Kazfosfor owns and operates several phosphorus and super-phosphate plants in Kazakhstan, including the Janatas plant in Shymkent Oblast. Workers at that plant have staged protests and demonstrations since the fall 1997 to demand payment of wage arrears, which in some cases date back to 1996. TEXUMA has promised to pay all back wages to employees. BP[04] CONFUSION OVER RECALL OF AZERBAIJANI AMBASSADOR TO IRANAzerbaijani parliamentary speaker Murtuz Alesqerov on 24 March said Azerbaijan's ambassador to Iran Aliyar Safarli has been declared persona non grata by Tehran, Turan reported. An Iranian newspaper claimed last week that Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev fired Safarli for incompetence and for making offensive remarks about Iran's sizable ethnic Azerbaijani community. Safarli had repeatedly criticized the Iranian government's failure to implement an agreement on opening an Azerbaijani consulate in the north Iranian city of Tabriz. Safarli's car was searched by border guards and customs officials at the Iranian-Azerbaijani frontier on 20 March. LF[05] TWO MORE PARTIES BACK ARMENIAN PREMIER IN RUNOFF...The Union of Constitutional Rights, headed by Hrant Khachatryan, has called on its supporters to vote for Prime Minister and acting President Robert Kocharyan in the 30 March runoff vote, Noyan Tapan reported on 24 March. Khachatryan polled only 0.21 percent of the vote in the 16 March Armenian presidential election. The Armenian Popular Initiative, which is campaigning for Armenia's accession to the Russia-Belarus Union, has also endorsed Kocharyan, according to RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau. Two other defeated presidential candidates, Union for Self-Determination chairman Paruir Hairikyan and Democratic Party of Armenia chairman Aram Sarkissyan, have already pledged their support for Kocharyan. New Path chairman Ashot Bleyan, who polled 0.11 per cent, will back former Armenian Communist Party First Secretary Karen Demirchyan in the runoff, Noyan Tapan reported. LF[06] ...WHILE MANUKYAN WITHHOLDS SUPPORT ALTOGETHERThe National Democratic Union, whose chairman, Vazgen Manukyan, polled 12.24 percent of the vote in the 16 March vote, has decided not to endorse either of the candidates who will contend the 30 March runoff, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. In a statement released on 24 March, the NDU said it has no "convincing grounds" for believing that either Kocharyan or Demirchyan is capable of expediting democratization in Armenia. The statement again charged that the results of the first round of voting were falsified and called on Manukyan's supporters to "vote in accordance with their conscience." He said no effort should be spared to ensure that the second round of voting is free and fair. On 23 March, Kocharyan had ruled out an alliance with Manukyan, according to Interfax. LF[07] GEORGIA, U.S. SIGN DEFENSE AGREEMENTU.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen and visiting Georgian Defense Minister Vardiko Nadibaidze signed an agreement on military and security cooperation on 24 March, an RFE/RL correspondent in Washington reported. In addition, the U.S. will grant Georgia some $1.35 million to finance the purchase of U.S. military radios for a Georgian infantry company that will regularly participate in maneuvers under NATO's Partnership for Peace program, AFP reported. The U.S. will also provide Georgia with two patrol boats to guard its Black Sea borders, Cohen said. LF[08] GEORGIAN REPUBLICANS CRITICIZE NEW ADJAR LAWSRepublican Party chairman David Berdzenishvili told journalists in Tbilisi on 24 March that recent legislation enacted by the Supreme Council of the Republic of Adjaria testifies to the separatist intentions of the region's leader, Aslan Abashidze, Interfax reported. Berdzenishili was particularly critical of a law on the direct election of the Adjar Supreme Council chairman, which he claimed violates the Georgian Constitution. But Abashidze's legal adviser Valerii Gelbakhiani argued that the new legislation is necessary because the Georgian Constitution, adopted in August 1995, in effect invalidates the Adjar Constitution. Also on 24 March, Georgian Finance Minister Mikhail Chkuaseli denied Abashidze's claim that Adjaria has not received 2 million Georgian lari ($1.5 million) allocated in the Georgian budget and that his republic contributes more to the national budget than the other 10 regions combined, according to Caucasus Press. LF[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[09] SERBIAN ATTACKS NEAR ALBANIAN BORDERSerbian special police attacked at least four villages north of Djakovica with mortars, armored vehicles, and helicopter gunships on 24 March. Serbia's Tanjug news agency reported that the police action was in response to a "terrorist" ambush of a police patrol. Some of the dozens of local Kosovars who fled to nearby villages told Reuters, that they do not know why the police attacked them. The fighting left several persons dead, but exact figures are not available. In Tirana, "Koha Jone" reported that "hundreds" of soldiers were sent to northern Albania on 24 March to reinforce units along the border with Serbia. "Shekulli" wrote that the latest fighting in Kosovo is "only 10 kilometers" away from the Albanian frontier. PM/FS[10] UN AGENCY SLAMS VIOLENCEJakob Selebi, who is chairman of the UN Human Rights Commission, has criticized the violence in Kosovo and called on the Serbian authorities to stop human rights abuses there immediately. Speaking in Geneva on 24 March, Selebi said that the Commission "condemns the excessive and brutal use of force by the Serbian police." Selebi added that the Serbian authorities have a duty to protect the rights of all citizens and "to ensure that public security forces act with restraint and in full respect of internationally agreed norms and standards." Selebi also said the commission "calls on the leaders of the Kosovo Albanian community to make clear their total rejection of terrorism." PM[11] ALBRIGHT URGES PRESSURE ON SERBIAU.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said in Rome on 24 March that "Belgrade is still ignoring the Contact Group's key demands" that diplomats from the U.S., U.K., Germany, Russia, Italy, and France formulated on 9 March in London. Albright added that "Serbian security police are digging in, [and] not pulling out" as the Contact Group requested. She said the international community "will need to maintain credible pressure on Belgrade to end repression and restore autonomy" to Kosovo. U.S. diplomats accompanying Albright on her way to the 25 March Contact Group meeting in Bonn told Reuters, however, that she is unlikely to find support for additional sanctions on Belgrade. The diplomats noted that Russia supports Serbia and that the four Western European countries are reluctant to impose sanctions on Belgrade just two days after the Serbian government signed an agreement on education with the Kosovars. PM[12] KOSOVARS SET UP NEGOTIATING TEAMKosovar shadow-state President Ibrahim Rugova announced in Pristina on 24 March that the Kosovar leadership has appointed 15 prominent persons to negotiate with the Serbian authorities if Belgrade agrees to unconditional talks. The members of the Kosovar team represent a wide variety of political views, RFE/RL reported. Negotiators include Rugova's adviser Fehmi Agani, shadow-state Prime Minister Bujar Bukoshi, communist-era leader Mahmut Bakalli, and Parliamentary Party President Adem Demaci. PM[13] RAMIZ ALIA CALLS FOR INDEPENDENT KOSOVORamiz Alia, Albania's last communist-era president, told "Koha Jone" on 25 March that the major powers should recognize Kosovo as a sovereign and independent state. He added that "Europe has been slow to act, as it was in the case of Bosnia," and that "now is the time for action and not for words. Kosovo needs solutions and not declarations and promises." Concerning the education agreement signed on 23 March between Serbian and Kosovo Albanian officials, Alia said that holding talks and signing agreements "are well-known tactics of [Yugoslav President Slobodan] Milosevic, which he also used in the case of Bosnia" (see "RFE/RL Newsline, " 24 March 1998). FS[14] SESELJ JOINS SERBIAN GOVERNMENTThe Serbian parliament on 24 March approved a new 35-member government consisting of Milosevic's Serbian Socialist Party, United Yugoslav Left, led by his wife Mirjana Markovic, and Vojislav Seselj's Serbian Radical Party. Seselj becomes a deputy prime minister. Spokesmen for the opposition parties Vojvodina Coalition, Union of Vojvodina Hungarians, New Democracy, and the Muslim List for Sandzak said the government "will lead the country to disaster and to new conflicts with the international community," RFE/RL reported. PM[15] KOSOVARS CONCERNED ABOUT SESELJSerbian Prime Minister Mirko Marjanovic told the parliament on 24 March that his government's priorities include "preserving Kosovo as an inseparable part of Serbia." In Pristina, Milazim Krasniqi, who is a spokesman for Rugova's Democratic League of Kosovo, said the Radicals' participation in the government is a "bad sign" for the future of peace and stability in the Balkans. Krasniqi added that "the arrival of Seselj and his people could lead to an even further radicalization of the situation in Kosovo and to an upsurge in the anti-Albanian campaign in Serbia," RFE/RL reported. The ultranationalist Seselj led paramilitary forces in Croatia and Bosnia, where he is widely regarded as a war criminal. PM[16] GARROD SAYS NO DEMILITARIZATION OF BOSNIA ALONEMartin Garrod, the international community's chief representative in Mostar, said on 24 March that the international community cannot support the demilitarization of Bosnia, as Croatian President Franjo Tudjman recently proposed (see "RFE/RL Bosnia Report," 25 March 1998). Garrod stressed that any regional demilitarization would have to include Croatia and Serbia as well as Bosnia in order to be effective. Meanwhile near Ploce, some 2,300 SFOR troops from six countries began a two-day exercise to "demonstrate the peacekeepers' military readiness," RFE/RL reported. PM[17] CROATIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS WANT EARLY VOTESocial Democratic leader Ivica Racan said in Zagreb on 24 March that early parliamentary elections are the only way out of what he called Croatia's general crisis. Racan also slammed Tudjman's rejection of Western criticism of Croatia's record on implementing democracy. The leader of the largest opposition party added that Croatia must meet Western democratic standards if it wants to be considered part of Europe. PM[18] SLOVENIA DISGUSTED WITH YUGOSLAV SUCCESSION TALKSA government spokesman said in Ljubljana on 24 March that Slovenia is withdrawing its permanent mission to the Brussels negotiations aimed at dividing the former Yugoslavia's debts and assets. The spokesman said Serbia has long obstructed the talks and hence made it "a waste of time and the taxpayers' money" for Slovenia to maintain a permanent mission there. The Foreign Ministry will assume direct responsibility for representing Slovenia at future negotiating sessions. PM[19] PROBE INTO ALLEGED CORRUPTION AT ROMANIA'S GERMAN EMBASSYPresident Emil Constantinescu has demanded that the government set up a commission to investigate German charges that Romanian diplomats in Bonn have been involved in issuing forged passports, dpa reported on 24 March. Earlier the same day, a German prosecutor said the diplomats issued the forged passports to gangsters who used them to bring children into Germany, where they were trained to work as pickpockets. German investigators say that some 100 children aged 8-13 were beaten up by their "keepers" if they did not bring in enough "loot." They add that the children are expected to make some 2,000-3,000 German marks a day. MS[20] ROMANIAN SENATE REJECTS OPPOSITION MOTIONBy a vote of 77 to 51, the Senate on 24 March rejected an opposition motion to debate the privatization of the state-owned RomTelcom company. The motion was submitted by the Party of Social Democracy in Romania and supported by the Greater Romania Party and the Party of Romanian National Unity. The government envisages selling a 35 percent share in the company to a foreign investor that has not yet been selected, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. MS[21] COALITION NEGOTIATIONS UNDER WAY IN MOLDOVAThe Democratic Convention of Moldova (CDM), For a Democratic and Prosperous Moldova Bloc, and the Party of Democratic Forces (PFD) are negotiating to establish a coalition government, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported on 24 March. PDF leader Valeriu Matei said that "at this stage, it is clear only that none of these parties will form a coalition with the Communists." A spokesman for the CDM said that the accession of the Communists to power would be tantamount to a "return to the totalitarian past." He said the three parties must now "set aside all differences" because "opposing the Communists is only possible by joining forces." President Petru Lucinschi held talks on 24 March with Matei and with CDM co-chairman Mircea Snegur. MS[22] OBSERVERS EVALUATE MOLDOVAN ELECTIONSThe Helsinki Committee- Moldova says its observers have concluded there was widespread ignorance of electoral rules among many members of electoral commissions, observers sent to the commissions by competing political parties, and the electorate itself. It adds that this resulted in some irregularities. Committee chairman Stefan Uratu also said the authorities were unable to ensure conditions for the Transdniester Moldovan electorate to freely participate in the ballot, mainly due to obstacles set by the Tiraspol authorities, BASA-press reported. Observers from the European Institute for Media (EIM) also said Transdniester voters did not have free access to information and were thus unable to fully exercise their electoral rights. The EIM observers also criticized the political partisanship of the Moldovan mass media. MS[23] UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT IN BULGARIAVisiting Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma and his Bulgarian counterpart, Petar Stoyanov, signed several agreements on 24 March, including a declaration on a "strategic partnership" for strengthening political and economic ties, RFE/RL's Sofia bureau reported. Kuchma also met with Prime Minister Ivan Kostov. He said it is "sad" that trade turnover between the two states totals only some $300 million but noted that prospects have improved since the pro- reform government came to power in Bulgaria. MS[24] BULGARIA REVEALS DETAILS OF RUSSIAN GAS SUPPLIES AGREEMENTDeputy Premier Evgeni Bakardzhiev on 24 March said that under the preliminary agreement reached last week in Moscow (see "RFE/RL Newsline, 23 March 1998), Gazprom has agreed to take over full control of the controversial Topenergy company, AFP reported. Topenergy had acted as an intermediary between Gazprom and Bulgaria. Also on 24 March, a consortium composed of Germany's Siemens, France's Framatom, and Russia's Atomenergoexport signed a $100 million contract for upgrading two reactors at the Kozloduy atomic power plant. The signing ceremony was attended by visiting German Economics Minster Gunther Rexrodt, who pledged continued German support for Bulgaria's integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, Reuters reported. MS[C] END NOTE[25] ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BELARUS: FACT OR FICTION?by Lavon ZlotnikauLast year, the Belarusian government claimed the highest rate of economic growth in Europe--some 10 percent of GDP. That growth had nothing to do with genuine, market-economy factors such as job creation, increased investments, and price liberalization. Rather, it was artificially stimulated by Soviet-era methods of a command economy. State control over the Belarusian economy is virtually total. The private sector's share in industry is less than 1 percent and in trade and services 4 percent. Under President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, private business is subject to constant regulation and steep taxation. Foreign investments in 1997 totaled only $40 million, and the per capita figure was 10 times lower than in the neighboring Baltic states or Poland. And while the employment situation looks deceptively good (official unemployment figure stands at 2.8 percent), many people without work choose not to register as unemployed, engaging instead in private commerce or trade. One of the reasons for the "Belarusian economic miracle" is the high level of Russian indirect subsidies. In March 1996, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Lukashenka signed an agreement on the "satisfaction of mutual claims of Belarus and Russia.". Under that agreement, Belarusian debts for Russian gas supplies totaling $1.3 billion (or 6.5 percent of Belarusian GDP) are converted into long-term credits. Moreover, Belarus imported Russian oil and gas at prices lower than those on world markets. Whereas Lithuania and Ukraine, for example, pay $80 per 1,000 cubic meters, Belarus pays only $50. Paying lower prices for energy resources results in indirect Russian subsidies totaling some $400-450 million a year. In addition, Belarus pays for some Russian goods by means of barter. Prices for bartered Belarusian goods are fixed at high or even world-market levels. For example, Russia imported sugar from Belarus in 1997 at a price of $513 per ton and from other countries at $307-320. Similar price differences exist for Russian imports of Belarusian butter, synthetic fibers, and other goods. Taking into account all forms of indirect Russian subsidies, Andrei Illarionov, former economic adviser to Yeltsin, concluded that those subsidies were equal to $1.52 billion in 1997. By comparison, the Belarusian state budget is only $3.5 billion. Another reason for the "Belarusian economic miracle" is the depletion of the country's national assets. Minsk inherited a large amount of arms from the former USSR, which are now being sold off. In 1996, armaments sales generated more than $400 million, and last year, Belarus gained a place on the list of the top 10 arms exporting countries in the world. Statistical data show that the total savings of the population are decreasing at a rate of $180-200 million a year. And last year, current assets of Belarusian enterprises decreased by 10 percent. With inflation rising, all enterprises were prohibited from increasing their prices by more than 2 percent a month. Last year witnessed an increase of production volumes at a large number of unprofitable enterprises. If capital turnover and inflation are taken into account, the share of unprofitable enterprises in Belarus is approximately the same as in Russia --47-50 percent. In Belarus, those companies were simply ordered to produce more and export (mainly to Russia) at prices below production costs. A final reason for Belarus's economic growth is protectionism. High import duties imposed within the framework of the Russia-Belarus customs union make certain Belarusian manufactured goods competitive on the Russian market. For example, Russian import of car tires from Belarus for the first nine months of1997 increased 2.6 times over the same period last year, while the production volume of Belarusian television sets increased by 60 percent and their export to Russia by 27.3 percent. Such trends are taking place at the expense of per capita consumption by the Belarusian population.. Thus rather than introducing genuine reforms, the Belarusian government artificially stimulates its economy by relying on Russian subsidies, the depletion of the nation's wealth, and trade protectionism. It also engages in increased deficit spending. The total budget deficit (including soft credits) was equal to 4.9 percent of GDP. That deficit is financed by credits from the Belarusian National Bank. Such soft-credit monetary policy leads to high inflation and to a redistribution of resources in favor of unprofitable enterprises. The author is an adviser to the 13th Supreme Soviet of Belarus and to the World Bank. 25-03-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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