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RFE/RL Newsline, Vol. 2, No. 48, 98-03-11Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Newsline Directory - Previous Article - Next ArticleFrom: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty <http://www.rferl.org>RFE/RL NEWSLINEVol. 2, No. 48, 11 March 1998CONTENTS[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE
[C] END NOTE
[A] TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA[01] GEORGIA TO PRESENT NEW PLAN FOR CISGeorgia will present a draft plan to the CIS summit in Moscow on 19-20 March calling for the establishment of a special commission to monitor CIS decisions and a special administrative region in Abkhazia's Gali district to facilitate the return of refugees. The plan also calls for CIS member states to turn to the UN and other international organizations if the CIS does not make progress soon on the Abkhaz crisis, Vakhtang Abashidze, a spokesman for Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze told ITAR-TASS on 11 March. Abashidze added that the Georgian president has sent a letter to Russian President Boris Yeltsin arguing that it is well and good "if the CIS promotes the independence of CIS member countries"; if it does not, then "disintegration processes may develop" within the commonwealth. Abashidze said the letter made clear that CIS membership must not block expanded ties between member states and European and international institutions. PG[02] ATTACK AT ARMENIAN ELECTION RALLY STILL GRABBING HEADLINESThe 8 March attack on participants at an election rally held by supporters of Vazgen Manukian in the town of Ararat continues to dominate the presidential campaign, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported on 10 March. While Manukian expressed his satisfaction with the way the authorities are investigating the matter, other candidates have either criticized the government or sought to place the blame for the attack on one or another faction. Acting President and Prime Minister Robert Kocharian suggested that the attack was directed "against the prestige of our country and me personally." Meanwhile, Self-Determination Union candidate Paruir Hayrikian suggested to Kocharian that he withdraw as a presidential candidate but continue as premier. PG[03] ANOTHER UZBEK OFFICIAL SACKEDUzbek President Islam Karimov signed a decree on 10 March dismissing Deputy Prime Minister Komiljon Rakhimov, ITAR-TASS reported. The news agency commented that Rakhimov has been relieved of his duties "on the traditional pretext of being transferred to another post," which "usually means a considerable reduction in rank." Last week, a security adviser to the president was replaced (See "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 March 1998). BP[04] KAZAKH NAVY TO PATROL CASPIAN SEATursun Uazhanov, a senior official from the Kazakh border guards, said that beginning this spring, Kazakh navy vessels will patrol the Kazakh section of the Caspian Sea, Interfax reported on 10 March. Uazhanov said initially naval operations will focus on "countermeasures against poaching." But he added that once there is an official division of the Caspian, "we will start full-fledged patrolling of our maritime borders." BP[B] SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE[05] MILOSEVIC OFFERS MORE OF THE SAMEThe Serbian government said in a statement issued to Tanjug on 10 March that the authorities are willing to "hold an open dialogue about solving all concrete problems" with "responsible representatives" of the Kosovars, meaning those who renounce violence. Serbian Television noted that talks must proceed on the "basis of the Serbian Constitution," which stipulates that Serbia is an integral state. The "new" offer thus appears to be no different from Belgrade's long-standing position, which is that the Serbian authorities are willing to hold talks with Kosovars provided the latter renounce violence and agree to the constitution. All Kosovar political parties support independence and accept autonomy as, at best, a first step toward independence. In the wake of the recent Serbian assaults on Kosovar villages, many Kosovar spokesmen have become increasingly reluctant to denounce the violent tactics of the shadowy Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK). PM[06] KOSOVARS REJECT TALKS, AUTONOMYFehmi Agani, a leader of the Democratic League of Kosovo, the main Kosovar political party, told Belgrade's independent Radio B-92 on 11 March that Milosevic's offer is "not serious." He added that the Belgrade authorities are "arrogant" because they coupled their offer of talks with a statement that praised the recent police action in Kosovo that has led to at least 74 deaths. Shadow-state President Ibrahim Rugova, for his part, said in Pristina that "the only acceptable solution for us is an independent Kosovo, not some kind of autonomy." Also in Pristina, the UCK issued a statement promising to continue the armed struggle for Kosovo independence. PM[07] MONTENEGRO CALLS FOR UNCONDITIONAL DIALOGUEPresident Milo Djukanovic said in a statement in Podgorica on 10 March that "the bloodshed in Kosovo must end immediately, the fighting must give way to political discourse.... The use of police to resolve the problem must be replaced by a top-level dialogue between the president of Serbia and the Albanian leadership in Kosovo, immediately and without pre-conditions.... A start must be made without delay on resolving the problem of Kosovo, which has been neglected and naively underestimated for too long." Djukanovic added that Kosovo is an international problem and that it is "demagogic" for Belgrade to maintain that Kosovo is purely Serbia's internal affair. PM[08] IS ARKAN AT WORK IN KOSOVO?Serbian police buried 51 Albanians in Donji Prekaz on 10 March. Relatives refused to claim the bodies and insisted that independent experts first perform autopsies, which police refused to allow (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 March 1998). Albanian spokesmen charged that police wanted literally to bury the evidence of "a massacre" of Albanian civilians, including a five- year-old boy and elderly women. Survivors of the recent police action said some of the dead were shot after they surrendered to police and that others were killed without having had an opportunity to surrender. Serbian police maintain that the dead were "terrorists" who died in combat with Interior Ministry forces. Some survivors from Donji Prekaz said the Serbian assault force was led by the paramilitary Tigers of Zeljko Raznatovic, better known from the Croatian and Bosnian wars as "Arkan," the "Sueddeutsche Zeitung" reported. PM[09] U.S. DENIES GIVING GREEN LIGHT FOR REPRESSIONA State Department spokesman in Washington denied recent media reports to the effect that a remark by special envoy Robert Gelbard may have been interpreted by Belgrade as a license to strike in Kosovo. The spokesman said on 10 March that during talks with Milosevic in February, Gelbard criticized "terrorist acts" by the UCK, but the spokesman added that Gelbard did not identify the UCK as a terrorist organization, according to an RFE/RL correspondent in Washington. The Kosovar and independent Serbian media reported recently that Milosevic took Gelbard's remarks linking the UCK to terrorism as a green light for the crackdown. Speaking in Pristina on 10 March, Gelbard criticized the Serbian authorities' use of "brutal, disproportionate, and overwhelming force" and demanded that independent experts be allowed to examine the Albanian dead. He added, however, that "the future of Kosovo lies within...Yugoslavia" and urged both sides to refrain from violence. PM[10] CHINA BLOCKS SECURITY COUNCIL STATEMENT ON KOSOVOChina on 10 March blocked the UN Security Council from issuing a statement on Kosovo, which Chinese diplomats called Serbia's internal affair. U.S. and U.K. diplomats in particular wanted the council to endorse the decisions of the Contact Group in London (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 10 March 1998). In Belgrade, Milosevic's office issued a statement slamming the London decisions as interference in Serbia's internal affairs. In Pristina, Rugova said the Kosovars "had expected much more" from the Contact Group. In Moscow, Foreign Minister Yevgenii Primakov said it is "counterproductive" to focus on sanctions and added that "Russia puts the accent on an end to terrorist activities and an end to the use of massive force." PM[11] MIXED REACTIONS IN TIRANAForeign Minister Paskal Milo on 10 March called the London decisions "the best that could be had" under the circumstances. He said the package is "an important first step" to ending the crisis. But opposition parties said in a joint statement that international military action is needed to defend Kosovo's "unarmed Albanian population.... The first signs of the Bosnia syndrome were seen in the London meeting, that is, the weakness of the international community in defending with determination and efficiency the principles of the agreements and conventions on which international order is based." Democratic Party leader and former President Sali Berisha added that major powers should declare Kosovo a "no-fly" zone. PM[12] BALKAN STATES ISSUE STATEMENT ON KOSOVOBulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, and Turkey have called for a dialogue to end the crisis in Kosovo, AFP reported on 10 March. The Bulgarian- initiated joint statement condemns "terrorist attacks serving political ends, as well as violence used as a means of repressing political ideas." The signatories expressed "serious concern over a deterioration of the situation in Kosovo and the serious consequences which an inter-ethnic conflict spreading in the region could have." They stressed that a solution to the conflict must be found "while strictly respecting the existing borders." And they urged Belgrade to "seek mutually acceptable solutions based on a wide autonomy for Kosovo." Also on 10 March, Bronislaw Geremek, Polish foreign minister and chairman of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, disclosed a nine-point action plan for solving the Kosovo conflict. The plan is similar to the Bulgarian initiative but adds points concerning OSCE mediation and monitoring. MS[13] BULGARIA'S OPPOSITION ATTACKS U.S. POLICY TOWARD KOSOVOMeanwhile, "Duma," the mouthpiece of the Bulgarian Socialist Party, wrote on 10 March that U.S. policy toward Kosovo aims at establishing a military presence there, as has been the case with Bosnia and Macedonia. Washington, the newspaper wrote, is looking for "pretexts" to achieve that aim: "In the Balkans this is a very simple matter--one sets Islam against Eastern Orthodoxy, and everything is in the bag, including the US military presence." The daily noted that "Madeleine Albright snapped [her fingers]" and "the most powerful lungs of the most powerful diplomacy" began "blowing the trumpets most militantly." MS[14] HAGUE COURT GATHERING KOSOVO EVIDENCELouise Arbour, the chief prosecutor of the war crimes tribunal, said in The Hague on 10 March that her office is gathering information and evidence relating to recent events in Kosovo and will continue to monitor any subsequent developments. She added that the court is legally competent to deal with atrocities committed in Kosovo and that it expects full cooperation by the Yugoslav authorities in its investigation. In Banja Luka, Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic said the Kosovo problem will be solved as part of the democratization process in Serbia. She added that the current international attention focused on Kosovo provides an excellent opportunity for all parties involved to work toward a solution. PM[15] BOMB ATTACK AGAINST ALBANIAN MINISTERUnidentified persons on 10 March planted a bomb at the Tirana home of Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development Ermelinda Meksi, "Koha Jone" reported. The blast destroyed part of the building but caused no injuries. No one has claimed responsibility for the attack. FS[16] LABOR PROTESTS IN ROMANIASome 600 professional drivers blocked traffic in Bucharest's Constitution Square on 10 March to protest the government's decision to raise gasoline prices, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. In Brasov, some 12,000 workers marched in protest at the recent price hikes in general. MS[17] MOLDOVA PROTESTS UKRAINIAN BORDER CHANGEPrime Minister Ion Ciubuc on 10 March protested Ukraine's decision to fence off a site on the Danube estuary and thereby push the border 100 meters into Moldovan territory, ITAR-TASS reported. That move deprived Moldova of its only access point to the river in the area, where it is building an oil terminal with aid from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. After visiting the site, Ciubuc said the Ukrainian move is "contrary to international law" and said Ukraine cannot proceed with the fencing until ongoing bilateral talks on border delimitation are completed. Moldovan Deputy Foreign Minister Vasile Sova, who heads the Moldovan delegation to those talks, told RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau that mutually acceptable solutions have been reached in "90 percent" of such cases. MS[18] ELECTION COMMISSION REJECTS MOLDOVAN COMMUNISTS' COMPLAINTThe Central Election Commission on 10 March rejected the Party of Moldovan Communists' (PCM) demand that the pro-presidential For a Democratic and Prosperous Moldova Bloc be banned from running in the 22 March parliamentary elections. The PCM accused the bloc of breaking the law by promising to give $1 million to the electoral district where it receives the most votes. The bloc responded that the promise had been made by one of the candidates running on its list. Also on 10 March, a group monitoring media coverage of the election campaign said the pro- Lucinschi party has already received more air time than it is entitled to. The group asked the Central Election Commission to intervene. MS[19] BULGARIAN PREMIER IN U.S.Ivan Kostov attended a dinner with prominent U.S. businessmen in New York on 10 March in a drive to further boost investments in Bulgaria, an RFE/RL correspondent reported. Figures released by the U.S. Foreign Investment Agency show that U.S. companies invested nearly $66 million in Bulgaria in 1996, while that figure soared to $410 million in the first nine months of 1997. The Bulgarian cabinet says that by the end of this year, some 85 percent of companies in Bulgaria will be in private hands. MS[C] END NOTE[20] WHAT PRICE BAKU-CEYHAN?by Lowell Bezanis and Liz FullerAt the beginning of this month, Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem invited his counterparts from Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan to attend talks in Istanbul aimed at reaching a consensus on the merits of what may prove to be a $2.5 billion white elephant The project in question is the planned 1,730 kilometer pipeline from Baku via Georgia to the southern Turkish terminal at Ceyhan, which could pump 35-50 million tons of Caspian oil a year to a soft Mediterranean market. The Baku-Ceyhan route is one of three options for the so-called Main Export Pipeline (MEP) currently being evaluated by the government of Azerbaijan and the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC), which is developing three Azerbaijani offshore oil fields. The others are the northern route from Baku via Grozny to Novorossiisk and the western route through Georgia to the Black Sea port of Supsa. The final choice is slated for October 1998 but may well be postponed. Turkey's publicly stated reason for plugging Baku-Ceyhan is to preclude an increase in the volume of oil tanker traffic through the Turkish Straits, which could pose a serious environmental hazard to Istanbul and its population of 10 million as well as slow up traffic in an already congested waterway. Another complication is that the projected volume of AIOC oil-- 2 million barrels a day to come on stream years from now--could be consumed by the Black Sea littoral states, including Turkey, which imports about 700, 000 barrels a day. Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine also have an interest in using Caspian oil for domestic consumption and possibly re- export. In any event, the MEP could not rely on AIOC oil alone but would have to include not only volumes from fields currently still being explored in the Caspian but also Kazakh and possibly Turkmen oil, too. Turkey remains upbeat, however, not only because the project is viewed as a means to realize Ankara's geopolitical ambitions and its bid to become a regional energy and transport hub for Caspian and Central Asian gas but also because Washington is aggressively supporting the Turkish leadership as part of a larger scheme to funnel gas westward via Turkey by piggy- backing gas and oil pipelines. Turkey needs gas to fuel power plants worth $40 billion to be tendered in the next decade. As for the producer and other potential transit countries, Azerbaijan has repeatedly affirmed its preference for the Baku-Ceyhan route, although Azerbaijani oil is already being exported northward through the Baku- Grozny-Novorossiisk pipeline. Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan see Baku- Ceyhan as a possible alternative or additional outlet to international markets. But that would likely necessitate laying a technically problematic underwater Trans-Caspian pipeline to Baku, which Russia and Iran jointly oppose. Turkmenistan's only other export routes are via Iran or Afghanistan. Kazakhstan has a choice between the westward-bound Tengiz- Astrakhan- Novorossiisk pipeline and eastwards via China but will go with whichever pipeline is operational first. It will also likely pursue a swap option with Iran, which many in the AIOC would presumably like to see if only Washington would tolerate it. Georgia, meanwhile, will be laughing all the way to the bank whether the MEP terminates in Supsa or Ceyhan. Russia wants to see the bulk of oil flow north and argues--with justification--that the northern route is more economical. But the U.S., whose oil companies are major players in the Caspian, favors Baku-Ceyhan as a means of anchoring Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey to the West and thereby further undercutting Russia's already waning influence in the Transcaucasus. In the event, the Istanbul talks revealed significant differences between Turkey and all participants except Georgia and failed to result in an unequivocal public endorsement of the Baku-Ceyhan option, as Turkey had hoped. The talks also irked Russia, which was not invited to participate. But that does not necessarily reflect a lack of determination to proceed and to find ways of buying off Moscow. Since 1994, Turkey has been talking about Russian participation in Baku-Ceyhan on the production side. It also wants to see Russian oil exported through Baku-Ceyhan. In late January, Cem floated the idea of giving "all regional states," including Russia, a cut of the profits from exporting Caspian oil to Ceyhan. That offer is likely to engender more cut-throat, behind-the-scenes bargaining. Given the magnitude of the stakes involved, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze's 2 March assertion that "an oil pipeline is not a tug- of-war" is simply wishful thinking. Lowell Bezanis is a Washington-based specialist in Turkish and Transcaucasian affairs. 11-03-98 Reprinted with permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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